TheConsumerPsychologicalContractinFoodSafety:Structure,BreachandItsImpactontheOnlineNegativeWord-of-mouthinChina

HOUMinghui,CHENTong,QINGPing

AbstractAlthough previous studies have discussed the internal structure of psychological contract,it still remains unclear that the internal structure of psychological contract and the impact of psychological contract breach in the field of food safety. Firstly,the key event interview method and factor analysis method were used comprehensively to develop the consumer psychological contract in food safety and the six-dimensional model of the psychological contract structure of consumer food safety——the QMR-TPC model was proposed. Secondly,experimental method and multivariate statistical analysis method were used to examine the impact of psychological contract breach on online negative word-of-mouth and the moderating effect of corporate response. Specifically,the quality breach is more likely to lead to the central online negative word-of-mouth; the morality breach and the responsibility breach are more likely to lead to the peripheral online negative word-of-mouth among which the responsibility breach is more likely to lead to the peripheral online negative word-of-mouth than the morality breach. Moreover,positive corporate response weakens the relationship between the psychological contract breach and online negative word-of-mouth. Therefore,it is suggested that food enterprises should take the initiative to fulfill the three social responsibilities of quality,morality and responsibility. In addition,when dealing with food safety incidents,it is necessary to make a timely and positive response to reduce the spread of online negative word-of-mouth.

Keywordsfood safety; psychological contract; psychological contract breach; online negative word-of-mouth; corporate response

TheImpactofGeopoliticalRiskonGrainPricesinChina

LIJunru,SHIZhizhong，HUXiangdong

AbstractBased on major grain prices and China’s and global geopolitical risk indices from January 2000 to December 2019,this paper employs a TVP-VAR model with random volatility to empirically study the time-varying effects of geopolitical risks on grain prices in China. The results show that grain prices are greatly affected by geopolitical risks. The impact of geopolitical risks on grain prices is persistent:the soybean price is most affected,followed by the corn and wheat prices,and the japonica rice price is less affected. Different grain prices have different responses to the impact of geopolitical risks during different periods. The impact of geopolitical risk showed more of a positive affect around 2005 and 2015. Global geopolitical risks have a more dramatic impact on grain prices than that of China. Geopolitical risks in the three periods in which the September 11 attacks,the Iraq war and the Sino-US trade dispute took place had varying degrees of impact on the grain market. When September 11 attacks and Sino-US trade dispute took place,China’s geopolitical risks have a large negative impact on corn price. During the Iraq War,the geopolitical risks have a positive impact on corn and soybean prices. The impacts of geopolitical risk on grain prices last for a relatively long time,generally levelling off after one year.

Keywordsgrain price; soybean price; geopolitical risk; shock; TVP-VAR model

TheStatusQuo,ImpactandOptimalPathofRegionalDistributionofGovernmentGrainReserveinChina

GAOHongyang,HUXiaoping

AbstractIn spite of 17 years’ consecutive harvest and continuous improvement of food security situation in China,the government grain reserves regional layout deserves attention.According to the white paper “Food Security in China”,there were a total of 670 million tons of standard grain warehouses and 240 million tons of simple warehouses in 2018. The total effective warehouse capacity increased by 31.9% compared with 1996. At present,the layout of government grain reserves are mainly concentrated in the production areas,and the residents’ grain consumption is mainly concentrated in the sales areas. The regional layout of the government’s grain reserves does not match that of residents’ consumption. This kind of reserve layout arrangement will cause profound effects such as the “reverse subsidy” of grain production areas to sales areas,frequent occurrence of “free-rider phenomenon” in sales areas,and prominent contradictions in time-based centralized transportation. Therefore,based on macro-control theory,intergovernmental transfer payment theory,game theory and circulation theory,this paper proposes four ways to optimize the layout of government grain reserves which are improving the government’s grain reserve macro-control mechanism,establishing mechanism to guarantee grain reserve production and marketing area funding,constructing mechanism to coordinate the interests of grain reserve production and marketing area,and establishing a complete grain circulation security system in the production and marketing area so as to give full play to the synergistic effect of the government’s grain reserves in regulating the grain market and stabilizing grain prices to achieve high-quality development of my country’s grain market.

Keywordsgrain reserves; regional layout; macro-control; benefit coordination mechanism

ASimulationStudyofCountermeasuresforChina’sSoybeanIndustrytoCopewithInternationalRisks

HUXinran，ZHANGYumei，CHENKevin

AbstractChina’s soybean industry is highly dependent on imports and the sources of imports are also highly concentrated. The natural disasters and trade frictions faced by main soybean import source countries may also affect China soybean industry and generate import uncertainties. To address the international risks,based on the soybean supply and demand balance sheet and global bilateral trade matrix,using the method of the global agricultural commodities partial equilibrium model,this study quantitatively simulated and evaluated the possible policy effects of three strategies,namely increasing China’s soybean yield and strengthening soybean cooperation with Argentina and Russia. The results show that these measures can increase the global soybean supply and decrease the world price to varying degrees. While at the same time,they can also diversify import risks,reduce the high dependence on the United States and Brazil,and promote the diversification of soybean imports,increase the welfare of Chinese consumers,and form a more stable and sustainable trade pattern. Accordingly,it is proposed that firstly,we should increase investment in domestic soybean research and development to improve domestic soybean yield and increase self-sufficiency rate; secondly,we should cooperate with major producing countries to improve their ability to cope with natural disaster risks and ensure a stable soybean supply in the context of sustainable environmental development. At the same time,it is necessary to expand the import sources,give support to the research and development of soybean varieties with various resistance traits for commercial promotion. We should strengthen agricultural cooperation with other countries such as Russia and Ukraine and increase global supply in the international market,diversify soybean imports and diversify risks.

Keywordssoybean; risk; the global agricultural commodities partial equilibrium model; policy simulation

StudyonHerbicide’sEffectonGrainProductionEfficiencyUndertheDilemmaof“SimultaneousIncreasesofProduction,ImportandStorage”

ZHOUHaiwen,WANGZhigang

AbstractIn the context of the current rural labor loss and quality decline,the zero growth of pesticides and fertilizers,and the limited space for policy support,herbicide is of great significance for ensuring China’s food security. Based on the theory of agricultural induced technological change,this paper analyzes the mechanism of herbicide’s influence on crop production,and uses 818 survey data of farmers in 6 provinces across the country,taking wheat as an example and using OLS and ESRM to empirically study the effect of herbicide on food production efficiency. The study found that the use of herbicides by farmers can significantly increase the yield of wheat per unit area,with an ATT of 0.281 and a counterfactual scenario of ATU of 0.383. Further discussion of the samples on the heterogeneity of sub-regional showed the conclusion that herbicides improve wheat production efficiency is robust. We must scientifically and objectively understand and pay attention to the effect of herbicides on food production efficiency,improve farmers’ skills in the scientific use of herbicides,and strengthen the quality supervision of herbicide products.

Keywordssimultaneous increases of production,import and storage; herbicide; production efficiency; farmer; endogenous switching regression model

EstimationsofTradeProtectionEffectsonSanitaryandPhytosanitary(SPS)MeasuresBasedonTarriffEquivalent

DONGYinguo,WUYitian,YAOXinchen

AbstractSanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures are the most applied and most influential non-tariff barriers in the agricultural trade. An accurate estimation of the trade protection effect of SPS measures can provide a basis for both the adjustment of agricultural product export tactics and the negotiation on free trade zone agreements. This paper uses a partial equilibrium model and the System Generalized Moment Method (GMM) to estimate the effects of SPS measures on the quantities of agricultural import,based on the HS 2-digit coded agricultural product trade data from 37 countries,including OECD and China,from 2001 to 2018. Then the quantity effects of SPS measures were converted into price effects,and the ad-valorem equivalents(AVE)was estimated on the basis of calculating the import demand elasticity of agricultural import in each category. It is found that the AVEs of SPS measures for agricultural products in this sample ranged from 4.6% to 60.6%,with an average of 21.07%,which was twice the weighted average nominal tariff. From the perspective of processing levels,the average AVE of SPS measures for primary agricultural products was 60% higher than that of the processed. Among them,the AVE of live animals,which had the highest risk of epidemic diseases,was 60.6%. Therefore,exporters should comprehensively consider both the nominal tariff and the AVEs of SPS measures when choosing the target markets.

KeywordsSPS measures；non-tariff barriers；tariff equivalent model；trade protection effect

TheResearchontheEffectsofMarketLiquidityofAgriculturalCommodityFuturesonPriceFormation

XUYuanyuan,WANGChuanmei

AbstractLiquidity is the life force of modern financial market system and the lubricant of financial resources allocation. Using real-time trading records of 2016-2018,it was found that effective spread which proxies for market liquidity follows intraday U-shaped and intraweek V-shaped distribution in the agricultural commodity futures market. Based on that,this paper constructs “volumes-prices” relation regression model with intraday effects and Fama-French 3-factor model with intraweek effects to explore the effect of market liquidity on agricultural futures pricing mechanism,from the perspective of information cost and risk premium. The study found that first agricultural commodity futures trading volume has a long-term and irreversible impact on futures price during opening and closing periods,which results from information effects greater than liquidity effects driven by trading,and a smaller price impact in Night trading plays a role in smoothing spread and sharing risk. Second the excess returns of agricultural futures compensate traders for liquidity risk,with a cyclical feature; there appears a concurrence of “l(fā)iquidity premium” and an “economics of scale” on Monday driven by the demand of releasing information and increasing position. It is concluded that increasing the proportion of scale trading,perfecting the information disclosure system and expanding the varieties of night trading will help maintain the reasonable and stable market liquidity,and give full play to the important role of agricultural futures market in resource allocation and price discovery.

Keywordsagricultural futures price; market liquidity; effective spread; liquidity premium; risk premium; informed trading; information cost

CreditConstraintsandRuralHouseholdEntrepreneurialPerformance:ImpactEffectandLossEstimation

YINHongfei，ZHANGBing,HAOYunping

AbstractBased on the Chinese Household Finance Survey (CHFS),this paper constructs objective measurement indicators respectively for the performance of agricultural entrepreneurship and non-agricultural entrepreneurship from the perspective of the heterogeneity of the entrepreneurial industry,uses the endogenous switching regression model to test the impact of credit constraints on the entrepreneurial performance of rural households,and further adopts the treatment effect model to estimate the loss of rural household entrepreneurial performance caused by credit constraints. The results found that credit constraints significantly restrict the entrepreneurial performance of rural households. For agricultural entrepreneurial households,expanding the scale of farmland operations has not significantly improved their per-mu agricultural output and unit agricultural production costs due to the credit constraints. Compared with households not subject to credit constraints,the per-mu agricultural output of households subject to credit constraints decreased by 119.4242 kg,and the unit production cost of agricultural products increased by 0.2097 yuan. For non-agricultural entrepreneurial households,increasing the amount of loans of households subject to credit constraints can significantly increase their net profit of production and operation compared with households not subject to credit constraints. If the credit needs of households subject to credit constraints are fully satisfied,the net profit may increase by 19,533 yuan. In addition,when the credit needs of entrepreneurial households constrained by demand-oriented credit are fully satisfied,the improvement effect of their entrepreneurial performance is better than that of entrepreneurial households constrained by supply-oriented credit. The research confirms the negative impact of credit constraints on the entrepreneurial performance of rural households and estimates the losses. The results imply that,the rural financial market should be further reformed to effectively settle the matter of farmers’ entrepreneurial financing constraints,enhance farmers’ entrepreneurial performance,and improve the quality of farmers’ entrepreneurship in the process of optimizing the support policy system for farmers’ entrepreneurship and realizing rural revitalization.

Keywordscredit constraints；rural households；entrepreneurial performance；endogenous switching regression model

TheImpactofNewMediaApplicationonFarmers’AdoptionofBiopesticide

SANGXiance，LUOXiaofeng

AbstractBased on the field survey data of 764 rice and wheat growers in Hubei and Henan provinces,this study uses an endogenous switching probit model to evaluate the impact of new media application on farmers’ biopesticides adoption under a counterfactual framework. At the same time,the study examines the difference in the effects as to different types of new media,and further explores the influence mechanism. The following resultes are indicated. First,the use of new media has a significant positive impact on farmers’ adoption of bipesticides. It showed that under counterfactual assumptions,if farmers who used new media had not used it,their biopesticides adoption probability would decrease by 26.5%,and if farmers who did not use new media had used it,their biopesticides adoption probability would increase by 32.9%. Second,different types of new media have different impacts on farmers’ biopesticides adoption. The short video is found to have a larger impact on farmers’ adoption of biopesticides than social communication,and content aggregation has less impact than the above two. Third,the promotion effects are particularly significant for farmers who have a higher education level and smaller farm land. Last,information capacity plays an intermediary role in the process of new media influencing the farmers’ biopesticides adoption . Therefore,it is suggested to improve the agricultural technology information dissemination mechanism,increase the supply of effective information,reinforce information technology education and training,and orderly guide farmers with different capital endowments to use new media to acquire agricultural technology information knowledge.

Keywordsnew media; biopesticides; information capacity; agricultural technology extension; endogenous switching probit model

AirPollution,EmissionTradingandImprovementofRegionalEnvironmentalQuality

AbstractAt the beginning of the 21st century,China’s central government began to explore the feasibility of SO2emission trading policy in China,and gradually carried out SO2emission trading policy pilot in different provinces and cities. Based on the provincial samples from 2000 to 2016,this paper selects the exact time when each province (city) is approved as the national SO2emission trading pilot unit as the policy intervention time point and evaluates the emission reduction effect of SO2emission trading policy using the Time-varying DID and PSM-DID method. There are three results shown below:First and foremost,the SO2emission trading policy has significantly reduced the industrial SO2emission intensity in the pilot area,and improved regional environmental quality,and the conclusion is stable and reliable. Besides,the SO2emission trading policy achieved emission reduction effect through two pollution control methods,which are the pollution end treatment and production front-end control,and these action paths have strong pertinence to SO2. Last but not least,if the government’s willingness to environmental governance in the pilot areas is stronger,but the actual intensity of environmental governance is weaker,the SO2emission trading system can play a greater role in reducing emissions,and the improvement of air quality in highly market-oriented areas is more obvious. Therefore,this paper argues that the pertinence,directivity and guidance of emission trading system should be strengthened,and the pilot areas should adjust measures according to local conditions to give full play to the emission reduction potential of market-oriented environmental regulation tools.

Keywordsemission trading policy; sulfur dioxide emission intensity; regional environmental quality; Time-varying DID; PSM-DID

TheEvolutionandProspectofUrban-RuralRelationsinChinaSincetheFoundingofPRC

YELu，WANGJimin

AbstractThe study of China’s urban-rural relations in the past 70years should be based on broader background,the environment of the times and economic development to restore the development of urban-rural relations and form a logically consistent theoretical framework. After the founding of People’s Republic of China,under the three national strategies of establishing a country,enriching the people and strengthening the country,China’s urban-rural relationship has undergone four stages:“confrontation”,“convergence”,“integration” and “fusion”. The top-level design and systematic practice has led to profound changes and great improvement of China’s urban-rural relationship,but the urban-rural dual structure has not been fundamentally broken and the urban-rural gap has extended from the economic to the social sphere with new trends and characteristics. Accordingly,to solve the problems in the current urban-rural relationship and boost the integrated development of urban and rural areas in China,we should endeavor to promote integration of urban and rural industries,encourage the flow of factors between urban and rural,improve the equalization of public services and increase farmers’ income.

Keywordsurban-rural relationship; dual structure; multidimensional urban-rural gap; urban and rural integration

TechnologyEmpowerment:RuralPublicEnergyFieldsandRuralGovernanceTransformation

WUJiafeng

AbstractUnder the empowerment of mobile Internet technology,rural governance breaks down the “discourse hegemony” of elitism and the “aphasia” of grassroots people,and promotes the transition of rural public energy field from “authority-dominated” to “interactive gaming”. The case of S village in Q county,Ganzhou,Jiangxi Province shows that the WeChat group of village affairs is essentially the realistic mapping of the rural public governance field and the network re-aggregation of the rural public energy field. The rural network public energy field represented by the WeChat group of village affairs reinforces the subjective role and presence of villagers in the rural governance,shaping their public spirit and village identity. With the intervention of township civil servants,the rural network public energy field embodies the dual aspects of “state presence” and “rural autonomy”,which gives rise to the transformation and upgrading of rural governance.

賈楠(1983-)，女，遼寧省營(yíng)口人，碩士研究生，畢業(yè)于美國(guó)天普大學(xué)，現(xiàn)有職稱：中級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)師，研究方向：經(jīng)濟(jì)管理。

Keywordstechnology empowerment; WeChat group of village affairs; public energy field; rural governance

The“self-sustaining”CareDilemmaandCopingPathofTheDisabledElderlyinRuralAreas

CHENGLingwei，WANGYu

AbstractWith the acceleration of population aging and the progressive aging of the older population,the contradiction that the construction of care system for disabled elderly in rural areas in China lags behind the aging process is increasingly prominent. Taking Village A in Ning County,Gansu Province as a field site,and combining the framework of welfare pluralism with the framework of social welfare policy,this study found that under the conditions of population outflow and lack of care service supply,care needs of the disabled elderly in rural areas in Northwest China are difficult to be satisfied,thus leading into the care dilemma of “self-sustaining”. Based on the theoretical reflection of welfare pluralism and the application of local welfare practice,and taking the care dilemma as an entry point,the fundamental approach to dissolve the dilemma is to construct a community care system in rural areas led by government and involving multiple actors such as families,rural communities,market and social forces.

Keywordsrural disabled elderly; disabled elderly care; self-sustaining care model; community care

WhatCanRuralSocialForcesDo

——Based on the Investigation of the Ritual and Custom Practice of the Elderly Associations in Southern Shanxi

CHAIShuyu

AbstractBased on the investigation of the ritual and customs practice of the elderly associations in P village in southern Shanxi,this article systematically explains the rapid development of the rural elderly associations in terms of external resource acquisition,activity space expansion,and subject acquisition. And according to the theory of embedding,the logic of action of the ritual practice of the elderly association is analyzed at three levels:“environmental embedding — organisational embedding — bilateral embedding”. The results show that there are three explanations for the rapid development of elderly associations:the first is obtaining external resources through the exploration and utilization of traditional ritual resources; the second is continuously expanding the activity space in the construction of legitimacy,organizational value and meaning; the third is obtaining a stable economic source by ritual and custom activities,and thus gaining the autonomy of the organization. The elderly associations were established in accordance with policy changes and the conscious awakening of the elderly. By embedding in local organizations and village governments,they built organizational identity and expanded the organization’s external influence. At the same time,by achieving bilateral embedding with the village Party branch and village committee,they gained continuous action power and promoted the stable development of elderly associations. Based on this,three basic conditions for the cultivation of rural social organizations are put forward,namely,obtaining encouragement and support from the state,realizing social welfare and mutual benefit,and having a source of continuous action.

Keywordsrural social organization；rural elderly association；ritual and custom practice；action power

StudyontheImpactMechanismofCountyUrbanizationonFarmers’FamilyLivelihoodinUnderdevelopedAreas

ZHUZhanhui

AbstractUrbanization has a profound impact on the livelihood and employment of farmers’ family. Based on an empirical research on the practice of employment and urbanization of farmers in central and western regions (the practice is limited in the spatial field of their hometown counties). the study examines the impact of county urbanization practice on the quality of farmers’ family livelihood and employment and their mechanisms of action from the perspective of of family livelihood transformation and their differentiation,grounded on farmers’ families and their subjective initiative. The results show that under the background of rural household differentiation,the development of county urbanization in underdeveloped areas in central and western China has created more employment opportunities for rural households and promote the completion of the urbanization. However,the development mode of county urbanization lacking industrial support has not provided stable and adequate non-farm employment opportunities for “half-working and half-farming” farmers,which has increased the burden of employment and family consumption on farmers moving to the city,and has a negative impact on the integrity of family life. Pure rural households are in the initial stage of urbanization,and the development of county urbanization has contributed to the transformation of their agricultural business mode and the increase in agricultural returns,but it also increases the consumption burden on the household economy. The development of urbanization in underdeveloped areas should be founded on the principle of people-oriented urbanization,fostering the coordinated development of industrialization,urbanization,urban and rural areas,and improving the quality of farmers’ livelihood.

Keywordscounty urbanization; employment; family livelihood; class differentiation

TheSpatialDistributionofHostCountryofChina’sOverseasFarmlandInvestmentandtheInfluenceofGeopolitics

HANJing，ZHOUJinpei，LUXinhai

AbstractSince the 21st century,overseas farmland investment has gradually become one of the focus of research in the field of transnational agricultural investment. It is conducive to the in-depth implementation of the agricultural “going out” strategy to explore distribution of host country of China’s overseas farmland investment and geopolitical factors. Based on the case data of China’s overseas farmland investment in the Land Matrix database,using literature data,spatial analysis,and mathematical modeling,this thesis finds that China’s overseas farmland investment is currently at a low level and the discreteness is obvious; the host country has significant spatial agglomeration,presenting a distribution pattern of “high-high,low-low” pattern; the scale of China’s overseas farmland investment is deeply influenced by geopolitics,geoeconomics,and geo-culture. The total number of declarations and communiqués,the distance from the capital,the total number of government agencies abroad,the average annual number of inbound tourists,and the average annual total export value are all related to overseas farmland investment activities,and the impact effects are spatially heterogeneous. Under the background of the current global food security and the rapid development of China’s agricultural foreign investment,Chinese companies should pay more attention to investment in high-quality arable land resources. It is necessary to scientifically adjust investment strategies and make plans on investment in key countries in accordance with the actual development of different regions. At the same time,relevant Chinese government departments should also strengthen interactive exchanges with key host countries,improve China’s overall investment in overseas arable land,and resolve corporate investment risks.

KeywordsOverseas farmland investment; agricultural foreign direct investment; spatial distribution; geographic relationship

MoralityandReward：AnalysisofChineseScientists’EmergencyScienceCommunicationIntentionDuringtheCovid-19Crisis

XIEYu,JIAHepeng,LUOXi

AbstractThis paper examines crisis science communication behaviour of Chinese scientists during the early time of Covid-19 pandemic in China. A conceptual model of the Theory of Planned Behaviour is constructed to examine the crisis science communication intention of Chinese scientists during the early stage of the pandemic. The results of the model show that the conventional variables of the theory of planned behaviour model such as attitude towards science communication,subjective norms,perceived behavioural control,and moral norms all have positive effect on scientists’ intention to engage in science communication. A variable proposed in a Chinese specific context--perceived institutional support--positively can influnece scientists’ attitude towards science communication and perceived behavioural benifits. However,neither perceived institutional support nor perceived behavioural benefits positively influence scientists’ intention of crisis science communication. These empirical findings show the strong organizational characteristics of Chinese scientists in the process of science communication and their high sense of social responsibility in the crisis situation; at the same time,this study also reveals the shift from “science communication” to “knowledge expression” and explains the value of this shift in subsequent studies.

KeywordsCovid-19; intention of science communication; crisis science communication; science disinformation; rumor correction; theory of planned behaviour

HowDoestheWritingStyleofSciencePopularizationArticlesInfluencethePublicAttitudeTowardstheDevelopmentofGMO?

CAIYukun

AbstractThis paper discusses the influence of the writing style of science popularization article on the public attitude of the development of GMO.The results show that the writing style of science popularization articles has a significant effect on the reading and understanding of these articles and the public attitudes towards them.After controlling the gender and major,the reading and understanding of science popularization articles can play a partial intermediary role in the relationship between the writing style of science popularization articles and the public attitudes towards them.The direct predictive effect of writing style on the public attitudes is regulated by the degree of personal involvement; The lower the personal involvement of GMO,the greater the influence of the humorous writing style has on the public attitudes；the higher the personal involvement,the more feasible to add expert’s advice in the science popularization articles. Furthermore,the relationship between the reading and understanding of the science popularization articles and the public attitudes towards the development of GMO is also modulated by the personal involvement.

Keywordsscience popularization articles；writing style；GMO issues；reading and understanding；personal involvement；attitudes