王炤翔

1 Does humanity have a future beyond Earth？ 人類離開地球會有未來嗎？

“I think its a dangerous delusion to envisage1） mass emigration from Earth. Theres nowhere else in the solar system thats as comfortable as even the top of Everest or the South Pole. We must address the worlds problems here. Nevertheless， Id guess that by the next century， there will be groups of privately funded adventurers living on Mars and thereafter perhaps elsewhere in the solar system. We should surely wish these pioneer settlers good luck in using all the cyborg2） techniques and biotech to adapt to alien environments. Within a few centuries they will have become a new species： The posthuman3） era will have begun. Travel beyond the solar system is an enterprise for posthumans—organic or inorganic.”

—Martin Rees， British cosmologist and astrophysicist

2 When and where do you think we will find extraterrestrial4） life？ 你認為我們會在何時何地發(fā)現(xiàn)外星生命？

“If there is abundant microbial life on Mars， I suspect that we will find it within 20 years—if it is enough like our form of life. If an alien life-form differs much from what we have here on Earth， it is going to be difficult to detect. Its also possible that any surviving Martian microbes are rare and located in places that are difficult for a robotic lander to reach. Jupiters moon Europa and Saturns moon Titan5） are more compelling places. Europa is a water world where more complex forms of life may have evolved. And Titan is probably the most interesting place in the solar system to look for life. It is rich in organic molecules but very cold and has no liquid water； if life exists on Titan， it will be very different from life on Earth.”

—Carol E. Cleland， philosophy professor at the University of Colorado Boulder

3 Will the entire world one day have adequate health care？ 是否會有一天全世界都能享有充足的醫(yī)療保障？

“The global community has made tremendous progress toward health equity over the past 25 years， but these advances have not reached the worlds most remote communities. Deep in the rain forest， where people are cut off from transportation and cellular networks， mortality is the highest； access to health care is the most limited and quality of care is the worst. The World Health Organization estimates that one billion people go their entire lives without seeing a health worker because of distance. Health workers recruited directly from the communities they serve can bridge the gap. They can even fight epidemics such as Ebola and maintain access to primary care when health facilities are forced to shut their doors. If the global community is serious about ensuring access to health care for all， it must invest in health workers who can reach the most remote communities.”

—Raj Panjabi， instructor at Harvard Medical School

4 Can we feed the planet without destroying it？ 在不破壞地球的情況下我們能養(yǎng)活全人類嗎？

“Yes. Heres what we need to do： Reduce crop waste， consumer waste and meat consumption； integrate appropriate seed technologies and management practices； engage consumers about the challenges farmers face in both the developed and the developing world； increase public funding for agricultural research and development； and focus on advancing the socioeconomic and environmental aspects of farming that characterize sustainable agriculture.”

—Pamela Ronald， professor in the University of California

5 Will we ever colonize outer space？ 人類會把外太空變成殖民地嗎？

“That depends on the definition of ‘colonize. If landing robots qualifies， then weve already done it. If it means sending microbes from Earth and having them persist and maybe grow， then， unfortunately， its not unlikely that weve done that as well—possibly on Mars with the Phoenix6） spacecraft and almost certainly inside the Curiosity rover7）.

If it means having humans live elsewhere for a longer period of time， but not reproduce， then thats something that might happen within the next 50 years or so. But if the idea is to construct a self-sustaining environment where humans can persist indefinitely with only modest help from Earth， then Id say this is very far in the future， if its possible at all. We currently have a very inadequate understanding of how to build closed ecosystems that are robust to perturbation by introduced organisms or nonbiological events （Biosphere 28）， for example）， and I suspect that the contained ecosystem problem will turn out to be much more challenging than the vast majority of space colonization advocates realize. There are a wide range of technical problems to solve， another being air handling. We havent bothered to colonize areas underwater on Earth yet. Its far more challenging to colonize a place where theres hardly any atmosphere at all.”

—Catharine A. Conley， NASA planetary protection officer

6 Will we discover a twin Earth？ 我們會發(fā)現(xiàn)另一個地球嗎？

“My moneys on yes. Weve found that planets around other stars are far more abundant and diverse than scientists imagined just a couple of decades ago. And weve also found that the crucial ingredient for life on this planet—water—is common in space. Id say nature seems to have stacked the deck9） in favor of a wide range of planets， including Earth-like planets. We just have to look for them.”

—Aki Roberge， research astrophysicist focusing on exoplanets at NASA

7 Will there ever be a cure for Alzheimers10）？ 究竟有沒有治愈阿爾茨海默病的方法？

“I am not sure if there will be a cure， per se， but I am very hopeful that there will be a successful disease-modifying therapy for Alzheimers disease within the next decade. We have now started prevention trials that are testing biological interventions even before people show clinical symptoms of the disease. And we dont have to cure Alzheimers—we just need to delay dementia11） by five to 10 years. Estimates show that a five-year delay in the terrible and expensive dementia stage of the disease would reduce Medicare12） dementia costs by nearly 50 percent. Most important， that would mean that many older people could die while out ballroom dancing rather than in nursing homes.”

—Reisa Sperling， professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School

8 Will we ever figure out what dark matter13） is？ 我們會弄懂暗物質究竟是什么嗎？

“Whether we can determine what dark matter is depends on what it turns out to be. Some forms of dark matter allow detection through small interactions with ordinary matter that have so far evaded detection. Others might be detectable through their influence on structures such as galaxies. Im hopeful we will learn more through experiments or observations. But its not guaranteed.”

—Lisa Randall， professor of science in Harvard University

9 Could we one day replace all of the tissues in the human body through engineering？

未來我們能借助工程學替換人體所有的組織嗎？

“In 1995 I wrote for a magazine about advances in artificial pancreas technology14）， plastic-based tissues such as artificial skin and electronics that might permit blind people to see. All of these are coming to pass15）， either as real products or in clinical trials. Over the next few centuries it is quite possible that nearly every tissue in the body may be able to be replaced by such approaches. Creating or regenerating tissues such as those found in the brain， which is extremely complex and poorly understood， will take an enormous amount of research. The hope is， however， that research in this area will happen quickly enough to help with brain diseases such as Parkinsons.”

—Robert Langer， Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

10 Will we use wearable technologies to detect our emotions？ 我們會利用可穿戴技術檢測情緒嗎？

“Emotions involve biochemical and electrical signals that reach every organ in our bodies—allowing， for example， stress to impact our physical and mental health. Wearable technologies let us quantify the patterns in these signals over long periods of time. In the coming decade wearables will enable the equivalent of personalized weather forecasts for our health： 80 percent increased probability in health and happiness for you next week， based on your recent stress/sleep/social-emotional activities. Unlike with weather， however， smart wearables can also identify patterns we might choose to change to reduce unwanted ‘storm events： Increase sleep to greater than or equal to nine hours per night and maintain current low-moderate stress， for a 60 percent reduced likelihood of seizure16） in the next four days. Over the next 20 years， wearables， and analytics derived from them， can dramatically reduce psychiatric and neurological disease.”

—Rosalind Picard， founder and director of the Affective Computing17） research group at the M.I.T. Media Lab

時光荏苒，曾經(jīng)科幻小說里那些天馬行空的想象，有些已成為我們的生活日常。如今的我們對未來同樣有著種種的憧憬：人類移民外太空，人人享有醫(yī)保，科學家治愈阿爾茨海默病……這些期盼何時能實現(xiàn)？如何實現(xiàn)？《美國科學人》雜志邀請了十位科學精英針對這些困擾我們的問題給出了回答。

“我認為設想大規(guī)模移居外星是一種危險的妄想。太陽系的其他任何星球甚至還不如珠峰或南極舒服。我們必須在地球上解決這個世界的問題。但是我猜想，到下個世紀，將會有成群的探險家在私人的資助下到火星居住，以后可能到太陽系的其他星球居住。我們當然應該祝福這些先驅移民者們，愿他們能利用半機器人技術和生物技術適應外星環(huán)境。幾世紀之后，他們將變成一個新物種：后人類時代就開始了。飛出太陽系的旅行是那些有機或無機后人類的事業(yè)。”

——英國宇宙學家和天體物理學家馬丁·里斯

“如果火星上存在大量的微生物，我猜測20年內(nèi)我們就能發(fā)現(xiàn)外星生命——如果這些生命與我們的生命形式足夠相似。如果外星的生命形式與我們地球上的生命形式相差太大，那將難以發(fā)現(xiàn)。也有可能火星上存活的微生物太稀少，且都生存在登陸機器人難以觸及的地方。木衛(wèi)二和土衛(wèi)六是更具吸引力的星球。木衛(wèi)二上有大量的水，在那里更高級的生命形式或許已經(jīng)進化。要想尋找生命，土衛(wèi)六也許是太陽系中最有趣的地方。那里有大量的有機分子，但非常寒冷，并且沒有液態(tài)水。如果土衛(wèi)六上存在生命，一定與地球上的生命形式大相徑庭。”

——科羅拉多大學博爾德分校哲學教授卡羅爾·E·克萊蘭德

“過去的25年來，國際社會在醫(yī)療公平方面取得了長足的進步，但是這些進步還沒有惠及世界最偏遠的社區(qū)。雨林深處的人們死亡率最高，那里交通閉塞，手機網(wǎng)絡不通，獲得的醫(yī)療保健最有限，醫(yī)療質量最差。世界衛(wèi)生組織估計，由于距離遙遠，有十億人一生都沒見過醫(yī)務人員。直接從當?shù)厣鐓^(qū)招募醫(yī)務人員能彌補這個空缺。他們甚至能抗擊埃博拉之類的流行病，在醫(yī)療機構被迫關閉時也能繼續(xù)提供基礎醫(yī)療保健。如果國際社會真心要確保醫(yī)療保障覆蓋全人類，就必須在能到達最偏遠社區(qū)的醫(yī)務人員身上投資。”

——哈佛大學醫(yī)學院講師拉吉·旁遮普

“可以。我們需要做如下這些：減少糧食浪費、生活垃圾和肉類消耗；把適用的種子技術和管理實踐相結合；讓消費者了解發(fā)達國家和發(fā)展中國家的農(nóng)民都面臨的挑戰(zhàn)；增加對農(nóng)業(yè)研發(fā)的公共資金；著力提高可持續(xù)農(nóng)業(yè)的社會經(jīng)濟效益和環(huán)境效益?！?/p>

——加利福尼亞大學教授帕梅拉·羅納德

“這要看如何定義‘殖民了。如果機器人登陸算的話，那么我們已經(jīng)做到了。如果這意味著把地球上的微生物送上去，讓其存活并生長，那么，很不幸，我們很有可能也做到了——‘鳳凰號飛船登陸火星時或許就實現(xiàn)過，而在‘好奇號探測器內(nèi)幾乎肯定實現(xiàn)了。

如果建立殖民地指的是人類長期在外星居住，但不繁衍后代，那么大約在未來50年內(nèi)就可能實現(xiàn)。但如果指的是建造一個自給自足的環(huán)境，讓人類只需地球適度的支持就能在其中無限存活下去，那么我認為就算可能，也是在十分遙遠的未來。目前，我們不知道如何建立一個封閉的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，使其能承受由于微生物引入或非生物因素（如生物圈2號）引發(fā)的微小變化。我認為其中的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)問題遠遠比絕大多數(shù)太空殖民倡導者所意識到的更具挑戰(zhàn)性。有許多不同的技術問題要解決，另一個問題就是空氣處理。我們還未在地球的水下區(qū)域建立殖民地，而要在一個幾乎沒有空氣的地方建立殖民地，挑戰(zhàn)性則更大?！?/p>

——美國國家航空航天局行星保護官員凱瑟琳·A·康利

“我下注賭會發(fā)現(xiàn)。我們已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)在其他恒星周圍的行星比科學家?guī)资昵霸O想的數(shù)量更多，類型更豐富。我們也發(fā)現(xiàn)，地球上生命的關鍵要素——水——在太空中很常見。我覺得，大自然似乎以利于包括類地行星在內(nèi)的各類行星的方式來暗中布局。我們只需要尋找他們?！?/p>

——美國國家航空航天局外行星研究天體物理學家阿基·羅伯格

“我不確定是否會有本質上治愈的方法，但我非常希望未來十年會有能有效改善阿爾茨海默病的療法?，F(xiàn)在，我們已經(jīng)展開了預防試驗，甚至在人們出現(xiàn)臨床癥狀之前進行生物學干預。而且，我們不需要治愈阿爾茨海默病——我們只需要把失智癥延緩五到十年。據(jù)估計，把可怕并且花費昂貴的失智期延緩五年，就能減少聯(lián)邦醫(yī)保中有關失智癥50%的費用。最重要的是，這就意味著更多的老人可能在舞廳跳舞時逝去，而不是在療養(yǎng)院里去世?！?/p>

——哈佛大學醫(yī)學院神經(jīng)學教授雷薩·斯珀林

“我們能否查明暗物質是什么，取決于暗物質到底是什么。有些形式的暗物質通過與尚未偵測到的普通物質相互作用，可以被觀測到。其他暗物質則可以通過它們對星系之類的結構的影響被觀測到。我希望通過實驗或觀測，我們能有更深入的了解。但不能保證一定可以。”

——哈佛大學科學教授麗莎·藍道爾

“1995年，我給一家雜志寫了一篇文章，探討了人造胰腺技術、塑料材質的人體組織（比如人造皮膚）以及讓盲人重獲光明的電子設備的發(fā)展。這些都將成為現(xiàn)實，或生產(chǎn)出真正的產(chǎn)品，或用于臨床試驗。未來幾個世紀，很可能人體的每一片組織都能通過這些方式替換。人體組織的創(chuàng)造和再生（比如大腦中的組織）極其復雜，人類知之甚少，需要進行大量的研究。不過，希望這個領域的研究能進展得足夠迅速以幫助治愈帕金森癥這樣的腦部疾病?！?/p>

——麻省理工學院教授羅伯特·蘭格

“情緒涉及生物化學和電子信號，這些信號到達人體的每一個器官，讓比如緊張的情緒影響我們的身心健康?？纱┐骷夹g讓我們得以對較長時間內(nèi)的這些信號的模式加以量化。今后十年，可穿戴設備能相當于我們個人化的健康晴雨表：根據(jù)您最近的壓力、睡眠和社交情緒活動，下周您的健康和幸福概率增大80%。不過與天氣預報不同的是，智能穿戴設備也能識別我們可能選擇改變的模式，以減少有害的‘暴風雨事件：比如，每晚睡眠時間增至九小時或更長，保持現(xiàn)有的中低度壓力，以使之后四天生病的可能性降低60%。未來20年，可穿戴設備及其衍生的分析方法能顯著減少精神疾病和神經(jīng)疾病?！?

——麻省理工學院媒體實驗室情感計算研究組創(chuàng)始人兼主任羅莎琳德·皮卡德

1. envisage [?n?v?z?d?] vt. 設想，想像

2. cyborg [?sa?b??ɡ] n. 賽伯格，即人類和機械結合形成的半機器人。

3. posthuman：后人類，利用現(xiàn)代科技，結合最新理念和審美意識對人類個體進行部分地人工設計、技術模擬和技術構建從而形成的

“人工人”。

4. extraterrestrial [?ekstr?t??restri?l] adj. 地球外的

5. Jupiters moon Europa and Saturns moon Titan：木星的第二顆已知衛(wèi)星歐羅巴（木衛(wèi)二）和土星的衛(wèi)星泰坦星（土衛(wèi)六）

6. Phoenix：美國“鳳凰號”火星探測器，2008年5月著陸火星北極?！傍P凰號”在火星上挖到了冰凍水并探測到來自云層的降雪，從而證實了火星的確存在水。

7. Curiosity rover：“好奇號”火星探測器，2012年8月登陸火星表面，探尋火星上的生命元素。

8. Biosphere 2：生物圈2號，建于美國亞利桑那州沙漠中的一座微型人工生態(tài)循環(huán)系統(tǒng)，為了和生物圈1號（地球本身）區(qū)別而得此名。

9. stack the deck：暗中布局、策劃

10. Alzheimer：阿爾茨海默病，一種臨床上體現(xiàn)為記憶障礙、失語、執(zhí)行功能障礙的疾病。

11. dementia [d??men??] n. 失智癥，阿爾茨海默病是這種病的最常見成因。

12. Medicare：（美國）聯(lián)邦醫(yī)療保險，指美國為65歲及以上人士或65歲以下特定人群所設置的醫(yī)療健康保險計劃。

13. dark matter：暗物質，一種因存在現(xiàn)有理論無法解釋的現(xiàn)象而假想出的物質，比電子和光子小，不帶電荷，能夠穿越電磁波和引力場，是宇宙的重要組成部分。

14. artificial pancreas technology：人工胰腺技術，指通過可穿戴的人工胰腺監(jiān)控患者的血糖并調控符合需要的胰島素水平的技術。

15. come to pass：成為現(xiàn)實，發(fā)生

16. seizure [?si???（r）] n. （心臟病等疾病的）突然發(fā)作

17. Affective Computing：情感計算，指賦予計算機類似于人一樣的觀察、理解和生成各種情感特征的能力，最終使計算機像人一樣能進行自然、親切和生動的交互。