林保國等

摘要：采用可變世界單產(chǎn)法計算了2007～2011年鳳陽縣的生態(tài)足跡，得出人均生態(tài)盈余由2007年的1412hm2下降到2011年的1263hm2，說明了近年來鳳陽縣人口對自然資源的消費量逐年增加，生態(tài)足跡與生態(tài)承載力之間的矛盾加劇。根據(jù)鳳陽縣礦產(chǎn)資源總體規(guī)劃實施內(nèi)容，規(guī)劃末期2015年人均生態(tài)足跡為0960hm2/人，生態(tài)承載力為2013hm2/人，生態(tài)盈余為1053hm2/人，評價區(qū)域仍有一定的生態(tài)承載力，說明規(guī)劃區(qū)在規(guī)劃的指導下有序、合理的開發(fā)，生態(tài)承載力能滿足鳳陽縣礦產(chǎn)資源規(guī)劃方案的實施。

關鍵詞：生態(tài)足跡；生態(tài)承載力；礦產(chǎn)資源；鳳陽縣

1引言

生態(tài)足跡理論是加拿大生態(tài)經(jīng)濟學家EWilliam及其博士生MWackernagel于20世紀90年代初首先提出并完善的一種可持續(xù)發(fā)展的生物物理評價方法。該方法從一個全新的角度考慮人類及其發(fā)展與生態(tài)環(huán)境的關系，提供了一個核算全球、國家、地區(qū)以及個人對自然資本利用狀況的簡明框架，通過測算人類對自然生態(tài)服務的需求與自然所能夠提供的生態(tài)服務之間的差距，評價人類對自然資源的利用情況，從而較準確地判定評價對象的可持續(xù)發(fā)展程度和狀況[1]。

以Wackernagel 為代表的“加拿大生態(tài)足跡小組”，首先應用生態(tài)足跡分析法在全球、國家和城市（區(qū)域）3個層面上進行了較為成功的相關分析[2～5]。1999年生態(tài)足跡的概念被引入國內(nèi)，區(qū)域生態(tài)足跡研究的實踐成果最早見于2000年，國內(nèi)多名學者分別對生態(tài)足跡從理論、方法、計算模型及其應用方面進行了評價。2004年，生態(tài)足跡分析法陸續(xù)被引入環(huán)境影響評價領域。如劉海濤等（2004年）基于能值生態(tài)足跡模型研究了內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)生態(tài)承載力；陳述文等（2007年）以重慶市為例將生態(tài)足跡法的應用在土地規(guī)劃環(huán)境影響評價中；陳秋林等以湖南常德市鼎城區(qū)1998年和2006年統(tǒng)計年鑒的數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù)，計算分析了鼎城區(qū)規(guī)劃實施期間1997年和2005年的生態(tài)足跡；林揚碧（2009年）分類生態(tài)足跡在區(qū)域環(huán)境影響評價中的研究與應用。

本文利用資源生產(chǎn)與消費數(shù)據(jù)對鳳陽縣2007～2011年生態(tài)足跡進行了計算分析，將礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)利用的動態(tài)特征融入到生態(tài)足跡模型中，根據(jù)鳳陽縣礦產(chǎn)資源總體規(guī)劃實施內(nèi)容，計算2015年礦區(qū)的生態(tài)足跡和承載力，為鳳陽縣礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)利用的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供定量的決策參考依據(jù)。

4結論與建議

（1）鳳陽縣2007～2011年的生態(tài)足跡進行計算結果表明，人均生態(tài)足跡不斷增加，而人均生態(tài)承載力呈反方向發(fā)展趨勢，導致生態(tài)盈余不斷減少?？紤]到未來礦產(chǎn)資源的不斷開采、人口增長及人們生活水平的提高，以往粗放式的礦產(chǎn)資源開采方式使這種不可持續(xù)狀態(tài)將還會加劇。

（2）根據(jù)鳳陽縣礦產(chǎn)資源總體規(guī)劃實施內(nèi)容，規(guī)劃末期2015年人均生態(tài)足跡為0960hm2/人，生態(tài)承載力為2013hm2/人，生態(tài)盈余為1053hm2/人，評價區(qū)域仍有一定的生態(tài)承載力，規(guī)劃區(qū)在規(guī)劃的指導下有序、合理的開發(fā)，生態(tài)承載力能滿足鳳陽縣礦產(chǎn)資源規(guī)劃方案的實施。

（3）本次研究以鳳陽縣礦產(chǎn)資源規(guī)劃生態(tài)承載力分析為例，研究區(qū)域較小，部分數(shù)據(jù)獲得較難，且計算中選取的均衡因子和產(chǎn)量因子采用的是全國平均數(shù)值，還缺少對當?shù)貙嶋H的不同類型生物生產(chǎn)性土地產(chǎn)量調(diào)整系數(shù)，因此，還需要針對當?shù)鼐唧w情況開展基礎研究工作，才能使生態(tài)足跡供給模型更有效、更科學地應用到生態(tài)承載能力評價當中。

參考文獻：

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[5] Wackernagel M，Monfreda C，Erb，K-H，et alEcological footprint time series of Australia，the Philippines，and South Korea for 1961～1999：comparing the conventional approach to an '“actual land area”approach[J]Land Use Policy，2004，21（3）：261～269

[6] Wackernagel M，Onisto L，Bello P，et alNational natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept[J]Ecol Econ，1999，29：375～390

[7] Wackernagel M，Onisto L，Bello PetalEcological Footprint of Nations[R]Commissioned by the Earth Council for the Rio+5 ForumInternational council for local Environmental InitiativesToronto：JCLEI，1997

[8] Wackernagel M，David Y JThe ecological footprint：an indicator of process toward regional sustainability[J]Environment Monitoring and Assessment，1998（51）：511～529endprint

[9] Hardip，Barg S，Hodge TMeasuring sustainable development：Review of current practice[R]Occasional paper number 17，1997

[10] 滁州市統(tǒng)計局滁州統(tǒng)計年鑒（2008～2012）[R]滁州：滁州市統(tǒng)計局，2012

Abstract：Ecological footprint is an important indicator to analyze the sustainable use of natural resourcesThis article calculates the ecological footprint of Fengyang County from 2007 to 2011 by adopting variable world yield methodThe results show that the ecological surplus per capita has decreased from 1412 hm2 of2007 to 1263 hm2 of2011，which is highly possibly resulted from gradually increased natural resource development in the past few yearsIt shows the conflicts between ecological footprint and ecological capacity are going upAccording to mineral resource development plan of Fengyang County，in the year of 2015，theecological footprint per capitawill reach0960 hm2，the ecological capacity per capitawill reach2013 hm2 and ecological surplus per capita willreach1053 hm2It indicates that the ecological capacity can fulfill the implementation of mineral resource development plan of Fengyang County if the development is under scientific and reasonable indication

Key words：ecological footprint；ecological capacity；mineral resources；Fengyang Countyendprint

[9] Hardip，Barg S，Hodge TMeasuring sustainable development：Review of current practice[R]Occasional paper number 17，1997

[10] 滁州市統(tǒng)計局滁州統(tǒng)計年鑒（2008～2012）[R]滁州：滁州市統(tǒng)計局，2012

Abstract：Ecological footprint is an important indicator to analyze the sustainable use of natural resourcesThis article calculates the ecological footprint of Fengyang County from 2007 to 2011 by adopting variable world yield methodThe results show that the ecological surplus per capita has decreased from 1412 hm2 of2007 to 1263 hm2 of2011，which is highly possibly resulted from gradually increased natural resource development in the past few yearsIt shows the conflicts between ecological footprint and ecological capacity are going upAccording to mineral resource development plan of Fengyang County，in the year of 2015，theecological footprint per capitawill reach0960 hm2，the ecological capacity per capitawill reach2013 hm2 and ecological surplus per capita willreach1053 hm2It indicates that the ecological capacity can fulfill the implementation of mineral resource development plan of Fengyang County if the development is under scientific and reasonable indication

Key words：ecological footprint；ecological capacity；mineral resources；Fengyang Countyendprint

[9] Hardip，Barg S，Hodge TMeasuring sustainable development：Review of current practice[R]Occasional paper number 17，1997

[10] 滁州市統(tǒng)計局滁州統(tǒng)計年鑒（2008～2012）[R]滁州：滁州市統(tǒng)計局，2012

Abstract：Ecological footprint is an important indicator to analyze the sustainable use of natural resourcesThis article calculates the ecological footprint of Fengyang County from 2007 to 2011 by adopting variable world yield methodThe results show that the ecological surplus per capita has decreased from 1412 hm2 of2007 to 1263 hm2 of2011，which is highly possibly resulted from gradually increased natural resource development in the past few yearsIt shows the conflicts between ecological footprint and ecological capacity are going upAccording to mineral resource development plan of Fengyang County，in the year of 2015，theecological footprint per capitawill reach0960 hm2，the ecological capacity per capitawill reach2013 hm2 and ecological surplus per capita willreach1053 hm2It indicates that the ecological capacity can fulfill the implementation of mineral resource development plan of Fengyang County if the development is under scientific and reasonable indication

Key words：ecological footprint；ecological capacity；mineral resources；Fengyang Countyendprint