文/陳志翔 譯/雷婷

Solving Transport Headaches in the Cities of 2050

文/陳志翔 譯/雷婷

What is the future of urban mobility2mobility移動(dòng)性，機(jī)動(dòng)性。? By 2050 there could be 2.5bn cars roaming the planet and most of them will be concentrated in cities, the OECD3=Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development，經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織，簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)經(jīng)合組織，由35個(gè)國(guó)家組成，旨在共同應(yīng)對(duì)全球化挑戰(zhàn)。has reported. Climate scientists predict irreversible4irreversible不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的；不可取消的。environmental damage with continued carbon emissions. In fact, the transport sector attributes to5attribute to 貢獻(xiàn)；歸因于。23% of the globe’s greenhouse gas emission resulting from burning of fossil fuels.

[2]There are four remedies6remedy補(bǔ)救方法；治療方法。to combat this polluting chaos. One approach is the electri fi cation of the automobile.Another is vehicle sharing. Third is the creation of self-drive vehicles. And the fourth is increased usage of low-energy transportation options like walking, bicycling, and use of mass transit7transit運(yùn)輸；載運(yùn)。.

[3]Electric vehicles (EVs) are primarily an auto-centric, engineering approach to the problem, whereby automakers have substituted the internal combustion8combustion燃燒；氧化。engine with battery powered electric motors. This dramatically increases the fuel economy of the vehicle and eliminates tailpipe9tailpipe（汽車(chē)等的）排氣尾管。emissions. The rise of Tesla Motors10一家美國(guó)電動(dòng)車(chē)及能源公司，產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)電動(dòng)車(chē)、太陽(yáng)能板及儲(chǔ)能設(shè)備。and their commitment to create luxury electric sports cars has created positive momentum11momentum勢(shì)頭；動(dòng)力。for EVs.Now nearly every major automaker in the world has an EV in the production pipeline. The development of new Lithium-ion battery technologies with much higher energy and power density12energy density能量密度，指每單位（重量或體積）的電池所儲(chǔ)存的能量；power density功率密度，指每單位（重量或體積）的電池所能輸出的最大功率。has also made EVs more competitive. Eventually, EVs will be designed speci fi cally around new electric drivetrains such as in-wheel electric hub13輪轂電機(jī)將動(dòng)力裝置、傳動(dòng)裝置和制動(dòng)裝置都整合到輪轂內(nèi)，大大地簡(jiǎn)化了電動(dòng)車(chē)輛的機(jī)械部分。hub輪轂。motors, which eliminate the need for transmissions14transmission〈機(jī)〉變速器。and gearboxes15gearbox變速箱。, further improving both driving and environmental performance.

[4]The world’s largest car sharing program, Zipcar, based in Cambridge16坎布里奇，位于美國(guó)馬薩諸塞州，哈佛大學(xué)與麻省理工學(xué)院的所在地。,near Boston, has taken a businessmodel approach, allowing users to rent vehicles by the hour. Users have the bene fi t of access to mobility whenever they need it, without the burdens of car ownership such as car depreciation, parking, insurance, tolls17toll（橋梁或道路的）通行費(fèi)。, and maintenance. Zipcar estimates every shared vehicle replaces up to 20 private automobiles, thus reducing total vehicle miles and land devoted to parking.

Driver free

[5]Autonomous automobiles are no longer science fi ction. Tests have shown that the concept will work on real-life roads. Automakers such as GM, Audi,Toyota, and others have invested the concept. The Google Driverless Car has already logged18log行駛，行進(jìn)（若干距離或時(shí)間）。300,000 miles on California roads without a human driver.

[6]Every year some 1.25 million people around the world die from automobile accidents. Autonomous vehicles can use car-to-car communication to avoid accidents and will always follow the road rules. Cars could be made out of lighter materials for collision-free environment to make them much more energy efficient. Autonomous vehicles can also closely follow each other, in platoon19platoon排；隊(duì)。fashion, improving synchronisation20synchronisation同步；同時(shí)發(fā)生。with traffic signals to avoid stop and start delays. Estimates by some leading experts state that traffic flow could improve by as much as 40-50% just by using driverless technology. That means less idling21idling（發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)等）空轉(zhuǎn)。at the traffic lights,and less pollution.

[7]The increased use of low-energy transportation options such as bicycle sharing, bus rapid transit and traditional subways are providing city dwellers with more flexible, cheaper, and less polluting options. For instance, China will be building over 87 new mass transit rail lines of nearly 2,500km of length in the next fi ve years alone. If construction continues on this pace, then China’s cities will have half of the world’s metro tracks by 2050. Some novel mass transit concepts have also emerged,such as on-demand buses developed by the University of Tokyo, which replace fixed-route bus lines, by dynamically routing22route規(guī)劃路線。pick-ups23pick up中途把……帶走。and drop-offs24drop off讓……下車(chē)。based on user demand. These systems improve operational efficiency and reduce carbon emissions by eliminating unnecessary stops.

[8]But simply replacing a fossil fuel-burning car with an electric one—even one that can safely and ef fi ciently drive itself and collaborate with other vehicles—will not be enough unless we adopt new use and ownership models and fundamentally change urban settlement. Rapid transit offers a partial solution, but they also have limitations.Public transit systems like subways and buses are extremely effective in moving masses of people from fixed point to fi xed point. But they do not solve the first and last mile problem. Users may live too far away from transit points to walk. This problem is compounded if users have much to carry, have a physical disability, or it is simply too hot,cold, or wet. The creation of an Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (A-MoD)network may solve this problem. Modelled after bicycle-share programmes,users will have access to a network of Lightweight Electronic Vehicles(LEVs) distributed at charging stations throughout the city. The swipe25swipe刷卡。of a smart phone allows them to pick-up an electric vehicle at a charging station and drop it off at any other station.

[9]Users can combine modes by taking a shared-autonomous LEV for short distances then transferring to any mass transit mode, finishing their trip by cycling or walking a short distance. The AMoD network would consist of a fl eet of electric bicycles, scooters26scooter小型摩托車(chē)。, and a range of electric vehicles. This essentially forms a new mobility network for shortdistance, low-speed trips that enable users to customise every single trip by selecting the appropriate vehicle for each trip segment—whether that’s to work or the local grocery store. More impor-tantly, these intermodal27intermodal多式聯(lián)運(yùn)的；不同運(yùn)輸方式之間的。systems are complementary to28be complementary to與……互補(bǔ)。mass transit, therefore dramatically increasing involvement in low-pollution transport schemes.

Radical re-think

[10]Unlike bicycle share programmes that suffer from redistribution problems(such as too many bikes in some locations and none in others), the A-MoD system could simply deliver a vehicle to a user. Once the user is dropped off,the shared LEV will drive on its own to pick-up another user, or to park itself for recharging. A-MoD systems essentially act as driverless electric taxis.

[11]The technologies to create smart sustainable cities have existed for a long time. Ferdinand Porsche29費(fèi)迪南德·保時(shí)捷（1875—1951），又譯費(fèi)迪南·波爾舍，德國(guó)汽車(chē)工程師，出生于奧匈帝國(guó)的波希米亞（現(xiàn)為捷克一部分）。由費(fèi)迪南德設(shè)計(jì)、大眾汽車(chē)生產(chǎn)的甲殼蟲(chóng)車(chē)，曾是世界上以同一型號(hào)設(shè)計(jì)產(chǎn)量最高的汽車(chē)。developed the first hybrid vehicle30hybrid vehicle混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)。to use electric motors in 1898. But in the end, technology and progressive public policy cannot do it alone, nor can new business models. It requires that we fundamentally re-think the urban structure of our cities, so that we don’t separate our living and working to the point that we need motorised transportationin the first place. It requires walkable, high-density, mixed-use neighbourhoods where the needs of every resident are met with less than a 20-minute walk.■

城市機(jī)動(dòng)性的未來(lái)是什么？據(jù)經(jīng)合組織報(bào)道，到了2050年，這顆行星上將有25億輛小汽車(chē)熙來(lái)攘往，而且它們大多集中在城市。氣候科學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)，持續(xù)的碳排放將對(duì)環(huán)境造成不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的破壞。實(shí)際上，燃燒化石燃料所排放的全球溫室氣體有23%來(lái)自交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)。

[2]應(yīng)對(duì)這種污染亂象，有四種補(bǔ)救方法：一是使用電動(dòng)汽車(chē)，二是共享汽車(chē)，三是研發(fā)無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)，四是多使用步行、騎行以及公共交通等低能耗的交通方式。

[3]電動(dòng)汽車(chē)本質(zhì)上是一種以汽車(chē)為中心的工程解決方法。汽車(chē)制造商將內(nèi)燃機(jī)換成由電池驅(qū)動(dòng)的電動(dòng)機(jī)，顯著地提升了車(chē)輛的燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性，消除了尾氣排放。特斯拉汽車(chē)公司的崛起及其對(duì)打造豪華電動(dòng)跑車(chē)的苦心孤詣為電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的發(fā)展創(chuàng)造了積極勢(shì)頭?，F(xiàn)在，世界上幾乎每個(gè)主流汽車(chē)制造商的生產(chǎn)線上都有一款電動(dòng)汽車(chē)。隨著能提供更大能量密度與功率密度的新型鋰離子電池技術(shù)的發(fā)展，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)變得更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。最終，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)將特別圍繞新型電氣傳動(dòng)系統(tǒng)展開(kāi)設(shè)計(jì)。比如說(shuō)輪轂電機(jī)，它省去了變速器和變速箱，進(jìn)一步提升了駕駛性能與環(huán)保性能。

[4]世界最大的汽車(chē)共享項(xiàng)目Zipcar總部位于波士頓附近的坎布里奇。Zipcar已采用商業(yè)模式，允許用戶按小時(shí)租車(chē)。用戶無(wú)論何時(shí)需要，都可以便捷地獲取車(chē)輛，不用承擔(dān)車(chē)主的各種負(fù)擔(dān)，諸如折舊、停車(chē)、保險(xiǎn)、通行和維修等。據(jù)Zipcar預(yù)估，每輛共享汽車(chē)最多可以替代20輛私人汽車(chē)，由此縮減總的汽車(chē)?yán)锍?，減少停車(chē)用地面積。

無(wú)人駕駛

[5]自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)已不再是科幻。這一概念已通過(guò)測(cè)試，將被運(yùn)用到現(xiàn)實(shí)道路上。通用、奧迪、豐田等汽車(chē)制造商已投資了這一概念。谷歌無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)已在加利福尼亞州的道路上行駛了30萬(wàn)英里的無(wú)人駕駛里程。

[6]全球每年約有125萬(wàn)人死于車(chē)禍。自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)能利用車(chē)間通信避免車(chē)禍，同時(shí)一貫遵守道路法規(guī)。在這種無(wú)碰撞的情形下，汽車(chē)可以用更輕的材料制成，讓自身更節(jié)能。自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)還能一排排前后緊挨，提升與交通信號(hào)的同步性，從而避免停車(chē)與起步延遲。一些權(quán)威專(zhuān)家預(yù)測(cè)，單靠使用無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)就能提升40%—50%的交通流量。那意味著交通燈前的空轉(zhuǎn)少了，污染也少了。

[7]共享單車(chē)、快速公交和傳統(tǒng)地鐵之類(lèi)的低能耗交通方式的普及為城市居民提供了更靈活、更實(shí)惠、污染更少的出行選擇。例如，中國(guó)僅在未來(lái)五年就將鋪設(shè)超過(guò)87條新的城市軌道線路，總長(zhǎng)約為2500公里。如果保持這種建造速度，截止2050年，中國(guó)城市擁有的地鐵軌道將占世界的一半。一些新穎的公共交通概念也出現(xiàn)了，比如東京大學(xué)設(shè)計(jì)的按需公交車(chē)。它并沒(méi)有固定的公交路線，而是根據(jù)用戶需求動(dòng)態(tài)地選定上下車(chē)地點(diǎn)。按需公交車(chē)系統(tǒng)省去了不必要的停車(chē)，從而提高了運(yùn)行效率，減少了碳排放。

[8]但僅僅用電動(dòng)汽車(chē)（即便是可以安全高效地?zé)o人駕駛并和其他車(chē)輛聯(lián)動(dòng)的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)）取代燃燒化石燃料的汽車(chē)還是不夠，除非我們采用新的使用模式與所有權(quán)模式，從根本上改變城市居住區(qū)。高速交通提供了部分解決方法，但也有局限。地鐵和公交車(chē)之類(lèi)的公共交通系統(tǒng)在點(diǎn)對(duì)點(diǎn)移動(dòng)大量人員方面極為有效，但它們并不能解決第一公里與最后一公里的問(wèn)題。用戶可能住得離經(jīng)停點(diǎn)太遠(yuǎn)，沒(méi)法步行過(guò)去。而且當(dāng)用戶攜帶東西太多或者身體殘疾時(shí)，或者純粹是遭遇了高溫、嚴(yán)寒或雨雪天氣時(shí)，問(wèn)題就更復(fù)雜了。自動(dòng)按需移動(dòng)（A-MoD）網(wǎng)絡(luò)的創(chuàng)建可以解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題。與單車(chē)共享項(xiàng)目類(lèi)似，用戶可以使用分散在城市各個(gè)充電站里的輕型電動(dòng)汽車(chē)（LEV）。用戶用智能手機(jī)支付后就可以從一個(gè)充電站把車(chē)開(kāi)走，又在其他任何站點(diǎn)把車(chē)還回去。

[9]用戶可以把這些模式結(jié)合起來(lái)，短途使用共享自動(dòng)LEV，再換乘任意一種公共交通工具，最后一段路騎行或步行。A-MoD網(wǎng)絡(luò)由一組電動(dòng)自行車(chē)、小型摩托車(chē)，以及各式各樣的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)組成。這主要構(gòu)成了適用于短途、低速行程的新型機(jī)動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，讓用戶不管是去上班還是去本地雜貨店，都能根據(jù)每段路程選擇適合的車(chē)輛，從而個(gè)性化定制每次行程。更重要的是，這些聯(lián)運(yùn)系統(tǒng)與公共交通互補(bǔ)，可以顯著提升低污染交通方式的參與度。

徹底反思

[10]單車(chē)共享項(xiàng)目飽受再分配問(wèn)題之苦（比如一些地點(diǎn)車(chē)太多，另一些地點(diǎn)又沒(méi)車(chē)）。A-MoD系統(tǒng)與其不同，可以便捷地將車(chē)輛送到用戶身邊。一旦用戶下了車(chē)，共享LEV就會(huì)自動(dòng)駕駛到另一個(gè)用戶的上車(chē)點(diǎn)，或者自己停車(chē)充電。A-MoD系統(tǒng)實(shí)際上相當(dāng)于無(wú)人駕駛電動(dòng)出租車(chē)。

[11]創(chuàng)造可持續(xù)智能城市的技術(shù)由來(lái)已久。1898年，費(fèi)迪南德·保時(shí)捷就研制了第一輛使用電動(dòng)機(jī)的混合驅(qū)動(dòng)汽車(chē)。但歸根結(jié)底，無(wú)論是科技、激進(jìn)的公共政策，還是新的商業(yè)模式，都無(wú)法單打獨(dú)斗。這要求我們從根本上反思我們的城市結(jié)構(gòu)，從一開(kāi)始就不把工作區(qū)和生活區(qū)分隔得太遠(yuǎn)，遠(yuǎn)到需要機(jī)動(dòng)交通的地步。這種城市結(jié)構(gòu)倡導(dǎo)可步行、高密度、多功能的社區(qū)，讓每位居民都步行不到20分鐘就能到達(dá)目的地。 □

2050年的城市如何解決交通難題

ByRyan Chin1

1 陳志翔（瑞安·陳）是麻省理工學(xué)院媒體實(shí)驗(yàn)室（MIT Media Lab）新能源交通工具領(lǐng)域的專(zhuān)家。

（譯者曾獲第五屆“《英語(yǔ)世界》杯”翻譯大賽優(yōu)秀獎(jiǎng)）