□ 文/安德魯·提利奧斯

東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化：是時(shí)候“腳踏實(shí)地”了

□ 文/安德魯·提利奧斯

2017年1月20日，越南總理阮春福、柬埔寨首相洪森共同出席“世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇2017年年會(huì)”分論壇，就東盟是否已建成“制造業(yè)共同體”，發(fā)表自己的意見和看法

悉數(shù)東盟的發(fā)展成就，可圈可點(diǎn)之處不少。自東盟于50年前成立以來，這一區(qū)域性集團(tuán)的成員國數(shù)量，由最初的5個(gè)擴(kuò)大到目前的10個(gè)。長期以來，東盟未曾受到地區(qū)間沖突的困擾，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度引人注目，呈現(xiàn)出一片和平、繁榮的發(fā)展景象。

1993年以來，東盟國家的貿(mào)易總額增加6倍多，由4000億美元上升至2.5萬億美元。東盟各成員國的貧困水平降低，地區(qū)貧困人口或低收入人口占地區(qū)總?cè)丝冢?億）的比例越來越少。毫無疑問，東盟各成員國正逐漸看到：東盟各國的國民生活水平，由貧困行列向低收入行列、中等收入行列邁進(jìn)。

在東盟國家中，新加坡是世界最富裕的國家之一；越南是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度最快的國家之一；而印度尼西亞、泰國、菲律賓和馬來西亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)蓬勃發(fā)展，已正式進(jìn)入中等收入國家行列。

為了實(shí)現(xiàn)東盟地區(qū)的繁榮與和平，東盟各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人共同制定了《東盟愿景2020》，旨在提高東盟的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平，加強(qiáng)域內(nèi)國家間的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系，實(shí)現(xiàn)東盟統(tǒng)一市場(chǎng)內(nèi)的人員流動(dòng)、商品流通、服務(wù)流通和資本流通等。

東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化動(dòng)力不足，域內(nèi)國家貿(mào)易關(guān)系疏遠(yuǎn)

目前，東盟域內(nèi)國家間的貿(mào)易關(guān)系并不牢靠。東盟國家（老撾除外）與域外國家之間的貿(mào)易額，仍是東盟域內(nèi)國家之間的3倍。而在北美地區(qū)，《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》剛實(shí)施5年，其域內(nèi)國家之間的貿(mào)易額就超過了域內(nèi)國家與域外國家。

即使像新加坡這樣經(jīng)濟(jì)高度開放的東盟國家，與其他東盟成員國之間的貿(mào)易額也不過才占其貿(mào)易總額的1/4而已；越南則忙于開拓國際市場(chǎng)，進(jìn)展迅速。然而，東盟域內(nèi)國家間的貿(mào)易額，僅占東盟貿(mào)易總額的13%。東盟設(shè)定了一系列政策性目標(biāo)，其中一項(xiàng)便是加強(qiáng)東盟域內(nèi)國家間的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系。目前，這一目標(biāo)還沒有達(dá)成。

對(duì)于東盟國家而言，域內(nèi)貿(mào)易的吸引力遜色于域外貿(mào)易。從某種程度上說，這就意味著，東盟國家之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系并沒有得到加強(qiáng)。實(shí)際上，只有加強(qiáng)東盟域內(nèi)國家間的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系，才能為東盟各國的企業(yè)提供發(fā)展動(dòng)力，提升他們的國際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

貿(mào)易發(fā)展水平不高，意味著東盟國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展在更大程度上依賴于美國、中國等經(jīng)濟(jì)大國。只要東盟各國的決策者們各盡其職，降低關(guān)稅壁壘、非關(guān)稅壁壘，那么東盟地區(qū)各種市場(chǎng)力量就能大有作為，東盟域內(nèi)國家間的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系也會(huì)更加緊密。

人們普遍認(rèn)為：東盟各國處在不同的發(fā)展階段，因此需要采取貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施——這種觀點(diǎn)是錯(cuò)誤的。無論是低收入國家還是高收入國家，都可以且一定可以在發(fā)展貿(mào)易往來過程中受益。公司之間存在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，國家之間也存在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，這都是常有的事情。不過，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也未必是件壞事——競(jìng)爭(zhēng)有時(shí)候能促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。東盟區(qū)域內(nèi)的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系不夠密切，這就意味著東盟錯(cuò)過了諸多發(fā)展機(jī)遇。

20世紀(jì)90年代，中國以迅雷不及掩耳之勢(shì)，登上了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)舞臺(tái)，剎那間成為風(fēng)靡全球商界的“寵兒”：對(duì)外貿(mào)易蓬勃發(fā)展，外國直接投資以驚人的速度流入中國。中國建立了龐大的生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。按理來說，要是世界各國的投資者們把東盟看作是“單一經(jīng)濟(jì)體”，東盟也應(yīng)該能夠建立起像中國那樣的生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

隨著中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，勞動(dòng)者們的工資水平得到提高，其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)成本也隨之增加。大批遷移到中國的行業(yè)，正面臨著新的發(fā)展契機(jī)——區(qū)域生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)將會(huì)從中國東部沿海地區(qū)外遷。那么，這些行業(yè)將會(huì)往哪兒遷移呢？中國內(nèi)陸地區(qū)，印度，還是東盟國家？東盟是一個(gè)開放、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、聯(lián)合的區(qū)域性組織，在吸引新型產(chǎn)業(yè)項(xiàng)目方面，勝算很大。

為此，必須采取措施來建立“東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體”——該倡議旨在通過整合各個(gè)東盟國家，把東盟打造成為一個(gè)“單一市場(chǎng)”，人們對(duì)此盼望已久?！皢我皇袌?chǎng)”既可以平衡發(fā)展機(jī)遇，又可以對(duì)大國進(jìn)行制衡。東盟作為“單一市場(chǎng)”，是一個(gè)影響力更為巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體：其出臺(tái)的各項(xiàng)政策，對(duì)內(nèi)更有利于東盟國家的發(fā)展，對(duì)外則更有利于東盟與中國、歐盟等世界其他各大經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的談判磋商。

從東盟最新一輪的會(huì)談情況來看， 非但沒有明顯的打造“單一市場(chǎng)”的行動(dòng)跡象，反而追求一堆關(guān)于一體化和合作的虛無縹緲的承諾。而媒體報(bào)道則似乎十分關(guān)注諸多安全問題。

令人感到遺憾的是，東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化將何去何從，一直懸而未決。東盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人多次呼吁實(shí)現(xiàn)東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化，但從東盟各國的具體行動(dòng)來看，幾乎沒有進(jìn)展。推進(jìn)東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化，有利于提振世界各國投資者們對(duì)東盟的信心，更好地服務(wù)于東盟的招商引資。

東盟潛力尚未發(fā)揮？

東盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人把“成立東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體”描繪得太美好，令人印象深刻。然而，理想與現(xiàn)實(shí)差距不小。

東盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人常常提到東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體所取得的成績，這是因?yàn)闁|盟各成員國的發(fā)展勢(shì)頭的確不錯(cuò)。但是，東盟目前尚未充分發(fā)揮其自身的潛力。東盟的決策者們，疏于加強(qiáng)區(qū)域內(nèi)各國之間的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系、推動(dòng)?xùn)|盟各國之間聯(lián)動(dòng)發(fā)展，未能盡最大程度創(chuàng)造發(fā)展機(jī)遇。

事實(shí)上，對(duì)大多數(shù)東盟國家來說，其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長得益于一系列雙邊自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定、東盟域外國家的投資以及本國國內(nèi)政策措施的支持。東盟還不是一個(gè)“統(tǒng)一市場(chǎng)”。由此，我們或許可以理解東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化程度不高的現(xiàn)狀了；這或許也能夠說明為什么東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程動(dòng)力不足。

東盟的決策者們應(yīng)當(dāng)承認(rèn)：東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體，主要是為穩(wěn)定東盟各成員國之間的關(guān)系提供一個(gè)平臺(tái)。面對(duì)中國、印度等強(qiáng)勁的區(qū)域成員時(shí)，東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體可以把東盟各成員國團(tuán)結(jié)在一起。另外，他們還要重申，由于東盟各成員國之間存在著明顯的社會(huì)、文化差異，東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體倡導(dǎo)和平、鼓勵(lì)相互了解。

“謀定而后動(dòng)”

沒有人期望東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體在一夜之間出現(xiàn)；不過，如果東盟各大會(huì)議還是把主要精力放在討論發(fā)展愿景和指導(dǎo)方針上，人們同樣不會(huì)對(duì)東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體抱有任何希望。

東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體要實(shí)現(xiàn)東盟區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化、成為“區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系”的先驅(qū)者，決策者們就得實(shí)事求是地引領(lǐng)、評(píng)價(jià)東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的發(fā)展。個(gè)別政客可以對(duì)東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的發(fā)展夸夸其談。但是，一旦明確了發(fā)展目標(biāo)、行動(dòng)指南，東盟國家，更準(zhǔn)確來說是東盟作為一個(gè)整體，就要言必信，行必果。

為此，東盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人要設(shè)定明確的發(fā)展指標(biāo)，以衡量出東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化、對(duì)外貿(mào)易和投資等方面的總體發(fā)展情況；采取有效措施促進(jìn)東盟區(qū)域內(nèi)的貿(mào)易發(fā)展，消除關(guān)稅壁壘、非關(guān)稅壁壘；實(shí)現(xiàn)東盟區(qū)域內(nèi)跨境投資的自由化；讓國有重點(diǎn)金融機(jī)構(gòu)面向市場(chǎng)開放，參與更多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)；打破中小企業(yè)在業(yè)務(wù)上的地域限制；完善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，為東盟域內(nèi)物流業(yè)的發(fā)展添磚加瓦等。

雖然這些目標(biāo)，聽起來有些遠(yuǎn)大，但只要東盟把目光放長遠(yuǎn)一點(diǎn)，并愿意為之努力，推進(jìn)東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化會(huì)水到渠成的。

今后，東盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在討論東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化時(shí)，可以評(píng)估一下東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體是否按照預(yù)期的方向發(fā)展。東盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人應(yīng)該通過量化數(shù)據(jù)，為東盟所取得的成就正名，而不是非?；\統(tǒng)地發(fā)布各種經(jīng)濟(jì)總量報(bào)告。

“東盟首腦會(huì)議”一年舉辦兩屆。會(huì)議的籌辦，代價(jià)不菲。為了加強(qiáng)協(xié)調(diào)配合、確保會(huì)議有序進(jìn)行，需要調(diào)集大量的人力。為該會(huì)議的籌備四處奔走的工作人員不計(jì)其數(shù)，而東盟各國首腦也把他們僅有的一點(diǎn)寶貴時(shí)間，耗在了一次次的會(huì)議上。

鑒于東盟各國為每次會(huì)議所花費(fèi)的精力、寄予的希望，東盟各國人民有理由要求會(huì)談成果滿足他們更多的期待。如果東盟想要認(rèn)真推進(jìn)東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化，那么，落實(shí)具體工作細(xì)節(jié)的時(shí)候到了。

·許志亮 編譯

·來源：新加坡《亞洲新聞臺(tái)》官網(wǎng)

ASEAN has come a long way since the five foreign ministers from Indonesia, Malaysia,Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand came together in Bangkok in August 1967 to establish an organization that would promote economic and social cooperation. Since then, ASEAN has evolved from a loose and informal association into a Community of ten states encompassing political-security,economic, and socio-cultural pillars,and sharing an ASEAN identity. It has also weathered several challenges –the Third Indochina War in the 1970s,the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, and the outbreak of SARS in 2003, among others. ASEAN has demonstrated adaptability and longevity,and as it commemorates its 50thfounding anniversary in 2017, it is high time to reflect on its past achievements and its continuously evolving role in the world.

ASEAN’s key accomplishments

The first key success of ASEAN is the general absence of an armed conflict among the Member States. Many scholars believed this has been ASEAN’s biggest contribution to the region and the world despite the diversity of its political systems and cultures and the existence of bilateral tensions arising from historical enmities and unresolved territorial and maritime disputes. ASEAN has maintained peace by socializing its Member States into principles and norms such non-interference in internal affairs, respect for sovereignty, and renunciation of threat and use of force— all enshrined in the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC). These principles have been upheld through consultations, non-confrontation, and consensus-building, or what is known as the “ASEAN Way.”

While the persistence of bilateral tensions and the reluctance of Member States to avail of formal and informal dispute settlement mechanisms, such as the High Council and the ASEAN Troika, have been pointed out as evidence of ASEAN’s ineffectiveness,it can be argued that the regional organization has succeeded in defusing conflicts by urging restraint. ASEAN Member States have become concerned about jeopardizing their standing in the region, and thus have opted for restraint even when pursuing national objectives. Thus, despite not taking a mediating role, ASEAN has contributed to managing tensions through informal and non-legalistic means.

The absence of an armed conflict in Southeast Asia has led to the second key success of ASEAN which is its role in promoting national and regional economic development. ASEAN has contributed to “a regional and international political order that has promoted a climate for economic assistance, trade, and FDI supporting national development programs.” Its expansion of membership to include Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam has facilitated their greater integration into the regional economy and has allowed their respective economies to catch up. The establishment of an ASEAN Economic Community with its commitment to a free flow of goods,services, and mobility of people has also made the regional bloc more competitive and resilient amid a slowdown in the global economy and trade.

The third achievement of ASEAN has been its role in facilitating regional dialogue and cooperation in the broader Asia-Pacific region. ASEAN, as a group of small and middle-sized states,has engaged all major powers and has sought to become a driving force – or the concept of ASEAN Centrality –toward an inclusive and rules-based regional architecture. It has initiated different bilateral and multilateral mechanisms including the Dialogue Partnerships, the ASEAN Plus Three, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), East Asia Summit (EAS), and the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus(ADMM Plus). These platforms cover issues ranging from traditional security,economy and trade, and functional areas,mainly through confidence-building and dialogue.

ASEAN has also encouraged external powers to abide by the same principles and norms in the TAC as the foundation for inter-state relations in the region;accession to the TAC is, in fact, a requirement for a country to become an ASEAN Dialogue Partner. While ASEAN in its early years had declared neutrality and attempted to isolate itself from major power competition, it has come to acknowledge that engagement with and cooperation by major powers are critical to the maintenance of regional security.

Challenges ahead

While ASEAN has successfully adapted to regional developments over the past decades, there are current challenges that may necessitate an even more proactive and responsive association.

The first challenge is the changing regional security environment. As ASEAN marks its 50thyear, significantprogress in this regard would be a demonstration of its commitment to and leadership in managing the longstanding disputes.

The second challenge to ASEAN is responding to non-traditional and transnational security concerns ranging from disasters, climate change, violent extremism, maritime piracy, trade in illegal drugs, public health emergencies,and refugee flows. While ASEAN over the years has set up mechanisms and sectoral bodies to coordinate policies and promote cooperation, responses have been either belated or limited due to the emphasis on non-interference and consensus-based decision making. Efforts also vary from one ASEAN Member State to another as manifested by the gaps between regional commitments and complementing national policies. Compounding this shortcoming is the lack of a regional mechanism to enforce the implementation of regional commitments at the national level. As the impact of these security concerns crosses national borders, it becomes imperative that the ASEAN Member States become more proactive in assisting each other to deal with these challenges. This includes reassessing approaches that may have been successful in preserving ASEAN in the past but have been less effective in dealing with new security challenges.

The third challenge to ASEAN relates to the unresolved tensions between and among the Member States. While ASEAN has kept its members together by not bringing up sensitive issues, it has been incapacitated or even rendered irrelevant whenever a diplomatic crisis or a skirmish breaks out. As ASEAN consolidates its community-building process and fosters a regional identity,Member States should seek progress in addressing bilateral tensions to deepen mutual trust and confidence. While many of these problems cannot be easily overcome, Member States should actively explore diplomatic, rulesbased, and lasting solutions to these,including through means provided for by the TAC, the ASEAN Charter, and international law.

President Rodrigo Duterte and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco Jr unveil the ASEAN 2017 commemorative coin on January 15, 2017.

Looking ahead to the next 50 years

Despite its criticisms and inadequacies,ASEAN has established itself as an important contributor to regional and international peace and stability in the past half century. ASEAN is a product of its own history and circumstances,and as it has demonstrated several times, it can evolve and adapt when the time calls for it. However, this does not mean that ASEAN should remain passive and reactive, and instead should challenge itself to grow. In the words of former Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan, ASEAN “should not rest on its laurels” and should “adjust and keep up with the global trend.”

In the ASEAN Vision 2025, ASEAN envisages itself as “an outward-looking region” that is “cohesive, responsive and relevant in addressing challenges to regional peace and security” and with“a central role in shaping the regional architecture.” Realizing this vision entails a dual task of ensuring ASEAN unity and credibility as a regional and global player and promoting the continued development of each Member State toward resilience. ASEAN is only as strong as its weakest member, and therefore each Member State should strive for both collective and individual resilience. The succeeding 50 years will be measured not by the number of new declarations, vision statements,and blueprints, but by how ASEAN has thrived in responding to regional and global developments.

Louie Dane C. Merced is a Senior Foreign Affairs Research Specialist with the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies of the Foreign Service Institute. This article was published by the Foreign Service Institute (FSI).

· Source: www.eurasiareview.com

Reflecting on ASEAN’s Contributions to Region and World

By Louie Dane C. Merced