鄧起東，徐錫偉，張先康，等

高被引論文摘要

被引頻次：175

城市活動斷裂探測的方法和技術

鄧起東，徐錫偉，張先康，等

發(fā)生在城市范圍內(nèi)的直下型大地震可能產(chǎn)生巨大的災害，包括高的振動破壞和強的斷裂地表錯動。因此，

城市；活動斷裂探測；方法和技術

來源出版物：地學前緣, 2003, 10(1): 93-103

被引頻次：137

城市綠地系統(tǒng)建設與城市減災防災

包志毅，陳波

摘要：自然災害往往給城市造成重大損失。在城市綜合防災減災體系中，城市綠地系統(tǒng)占有十分重要的位置。城市綠地系統(tǒng)是城市規(guī)劃和建設中的重要組成部分，它不僅具有美化城市環(huán)境、凈化空氣、平衡城市生態(tài)系統(tǒng)、為城市居民提供休憩游樂場所等作用，同時還具有防震、防火、防洪、減輕災害的功能。從城市綠地的定義和分類入手，分析了城市綠地系統(tǒng)在城市綜合防災減災中的作用，并通過介紹和分析日本防災公園的規(guī)劃建設，探討了城市避災綠地系統(tǒng)的規(guī)劃方法。

關鍵詞：城市綠地系統(tǒng)；城市公園；自然災害；減災；防災

來源出版物：自然災害學報, 2004, 13(2): 155-160

被引頻次：126

城市防震減災能力評估研究

張風華，謝禮立

摘要：首先論述了目前國內(nèi)外關于城市地震災害風險評估的研究，分析了這些研究取得的成果和存在的不足。然后，提出了城市防震減災能力的概念，采用人員傷亡、經(jīng)濟損失和震后恢復時間作為衡量城市防震減災能力強弱的3個最基本的要。圍繞這3個基本要素，列舉出影響城市防震減災能力的6大因素，在此基礎上，提出了城市防震減災能力評價指標體系的具體內(nèi)容。

關鍵詞：城市防震減災能力；地震人員傷亡；經(jīng)濟損失；震后恢復時間

來源出版物：自然災害學報, 2007, 37(2): 129-150

被引頻次：112

城市活動斷裂探測和地震危險性評價問題

鄧起東

摘要：城市范圍內(nèi)直下型活動斷裂突發(fā)錯動產(chǎn)生的直下型大地震，直接威脅城市和人民生命財產(chǎn)的安全。城市活動斷裂探測和地震危險性評價是為城市減災服務的一項系統(tǒng)工程，也是活動構造研究面臨的一項新的工作。這一工作的核心是要解決城市范圍內(nèi)的斷裂定位、斷裂最新活動、斷裂的深部背景、斷裂的地震危險性和地面錯動危險性及減災對策。為了更好地理解這一問題，作者用“有沒有、活不活、深不深，震不震，錯不錯，好對策”這6句話來表示其核心內(nèi)容。文中對這些問題作了具體的說明。

關鍵詞：活動斷裂；地震危險性；城市

來源出版物：地震地質, 2002, 24(4): 601-605

被引頻次：89

中國城市主要自然災害風險評價研究

史培軍，杜鵑，冀萌新，等

摘要：本文依據(jù)災害系統(tǒng)理論和中國自然災害數(shù)據(jù)庫，構建了反映城市承災體的綜合城市化水平（CL）指標，并在此基礎上得到城市脆弱性水平指數(shù)?？紤]對城市具有結構性破壞和易于造成交通災情的主要災種，即水災、地震、滑坡—泥石流、臺風、沙塵暴，構建了反映城市主要致災因子的綜合自然災害強度（QC）指標，并得到城市綜合自然災害強度指數(shù)。據(jù)此，在定性分析的基礎上，通過半定量計算，將中國城市主要自然災害風險劃分為高風險、較高風險、中等風險、較低風險、低風險5個等級，編制了中國城市自然災害風險評價圖，并對災害鏈的綜合風險評價作了進一步的探討。

關鍵詞：綜合城市化水平；災害脆弱性；綜合自然災害強度；綜合自然災害風險評價

來源出版物：地球科學進展, 2006, 21(2): 170-177

被引頻次：82

數(shù)字減災系統(tǒng)

謝禮立，溫瑞智

摘要：自然災害是人類可持續(xù)發(fā)展過程中面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。本文首先澄清了自然災害與災象的概念，分析了當代自然災害產(chǎn)生的特征，結合計算機技術的發(fā)展和人類對自然災害的認識，提出了建設數(shù)字減災系統(tǒng)的設想。數(shù)字減災系統(tǒng)是一種以遙感技術、地理信息系統(tǒng)、全球定位系統(tǒng)、網(wǎng)絡技術等作為主要技術支撐，用數(shù)學和物理模型通過多維虛擬現(xiàn)實技術研究災象成因、發(fā)生機理、傳播規(guī)律和作用于人類環(huán)境形成自然災害全過程的信息化的計算機系統(tǒng)，它既可用于為人類和社會對災害作出反應，進行防震減災行為和制訂決策的一種系統(tǒng)，也可以直接用于研究災害本身，包括災害形成及其防御的各個環(huán)節(jié)。作為今后防災減災領域的一個重要發(fā)展方向，數(shù)字減災系統(tǒng)具有滿足社會和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展急需，對科學發(fā)展的推動作用大，科學創(chuàng)新點明確，內(nèi)涵豐富，技術路線可行而且具有高起點、高效率的特點。

關鍵詞：自然災害；數(shù)字減災系統(tǒng)；數(shù)字地球

來源出版物：自然災害學報, 2000, 9(2): 1-9

被引頻次：80

中國未來10～15年地震災害的風險評估

聶高眾，高建國，馬宗晉，等

摘要：中國是世界上地震災害損失最嚴重的國家之一，全國50%以上的城市和70%左右的大中城市位于7度及以上烈度區(qū)內(nèi)。地震的發(fā)生給中國社會帶來了很大的危害和損失，主要的損失分布在以北京為中心的首都圈地區(qū)和云南－四川－陜西－內(nèi)蒙古相連的南北帶上，另外新疆的西北部也是地震損失較大的地區(qū)。所謂地震災害風險是指建立在各地防震減災能力基礎上的未來地震損失估汁，風險的特征是具有一定的不確定性．從中國的實際情況來看，東部沿海地區(qū)、首都圈地區(qū)及內(nèi)陸的個別地區(qū)防震減災能力較強，而未來地震危險性則以中國西部地區(qū)和華北地區(qū)為主。通過對中國未來10～15年地震風險的研究，可以認為，中國的東部地區(qū)雖然有一定的地震危險性，但由于其經(jīng)濟發(fā)達，減災能力很強，因此未來地震造成巨大損失的風險較??；中國的中部（南北帶）和西部地區(qū)地震危險性很大，同時經(jīng)濟欠發(fā)達，減災能力較差，因此未來地震造成巨大損失的風險很大。

關鍵詞：地震；風險評估；中國

來源出版物：自然災害學報, 2002, 10(1): 68-73

被引頻次：65

中國城市地震災害危險度評價

徐偉，王靜愛，史培軍，等

摘要：應用中國歷史上發(fā)生的M≥4的6759條地震信息和2000年中國672個城市的有關信息，采用中國城市近源地震等效震級和城市地震災害承災體易損性指數(shù)CV，構建了中國城市地震災害危險度指數(shù)WX，并編制了相應的分布圖。研究表明：中國41.82%的城市歷史上發(fā)生過的近源地震。CV高值城市的分布與我國城市群、城市帶的分布并不一致。華北地區(qū)、臺灣島地區(qū)是我國城市高危險度的高密集區(qū)，其次是福建廣東沿海、云南省、新疆天山山脈等地區(qū)。WX值在3.0以上的37個城市應作為國家減輕地震災害的重點城市。

關鍵詞：城市近源地震；承災體易損性指數(shù)；危險度評價；中國城市

來源出版物：自然災害學報, 2004, 13(1): 9-15

被引頻次：61

城市防震減災能力評估研究

張風華，謝禮立，范立礎

摘要：城市防震減災能力本身是一個涉及因素眾多的復雜體系，對它的評估也是涉及到地震科學、社會科學和經(jīng)濟科學的交叉學科問題。本文首先提出了城市防震減災能力的概念，把人員傷亡、經(jīng)濟損失和震后恢復時間等3個方面作為衡量城市防震減災能力的準則；圍繞這3個準則，從影響城市防震減災能力的眾多復雜因素中抽取出六大因素，并用一些簡單、可測量的指標來代表這六大因素，建立起城市防震減災能力指標體系；然后建立起指標體系與上述3個方面評價準則人員傷亡、經(jīng)濟損失和恢復時間的聯(lián)系；最后，用灰色關聯(lián)分析方法將3個評價準則綜合成一個防震減災能力指數(shù)。從而為城市防震減災能力評估提供了一個較系統(tǒng)、完整的理論體系框架。理論體系的建立能夠在絕對上、定量上評價城市的防震減災能力，從而指導城市進行防震減災決策。

關鍵詞：城市防震減災能力評估；人員傷亡；經(jīng)濟損失；震后恢復時間；指標體系；灰色關聯(lián)分析；防震減災能力指數(shù)

來源出版物：地震學報, 2004, 26(3): 318-329

被引頻次：51

GIS在城市防震減災應急決策中的應用

火恩杰，宋俊高，朱元清，等

摘要：將地理信息系統(tǒng)（GIS）技術應用于城市防震減災工作，建立了“上海市防震減災應急決策信息系統(tǒng)（寶山試點區(qū)）”。介紹了該系統(tǒng)的組成及各功能模塊的結構和作用，并重點分析了系統(tǒng)的核心模塊：地震災害快速評估子系統(tǒng)和地震應急決策信息子系統(tǒng)。

關鍵詞：地理信息系統(tǒng)；防震減災；震害快速評估；應急決策

來源出版物：自然災害學報, 2000, 9(3): 15-22

被引頻次：292

來源出版物：European Journal of Operational Research, 2007, 179(3): 1177-1193

被引頻次：167

Multicriteria planning of post-earthquake sustainable reconstruction

Opricovic, S; Tzeng, GH

Abstract:A multicriteria model is developed for analyzing the planning strategies for reducing the future social and economic costs in the area with potential natural hazard. The developed multicriteria decision-making procedure consists of generating alternatives, establishing criteria, assessment of criteria weights, and application of the compromise ranking method (VIKOR). The alternatives are the scenarios of sustainable hazard effects mitigation, generated in the form of comprehensive reconstruction plans, including the redevelopment of urban areas and infrastructures, multipurpose land use, and restrictions on building in hazardous areas. The plans have to be evaluated according to the criteria representing public safety, sustainability, social environment, natural environment, economy, culture, and politics. The multicriteria model can treat all relevant conflicting effects and impacts in their representative units. The evaluation of alternatives is implicated with imprecision (or uncertainty) of established criteria, and the fuzzy multicriteria model is developed to deal with “qualitative” (unquantifiable or linguistic) or incomplete information. The application of this model is illustrated with the post-earthquake reconstruction problem in Central Taiwan, including the restoration concerning the safe and serviceable operation of “l(fā)ifeline” systems, such as electricity, water and transportation networks, immediately after a severe earthquake.

來源出版物：Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 2002, 17(3): 211-220

被引頻次：167

Longitudinal study of earthquake-related PTSD in a randomly selected community sample in North China

Wang, XD; Gao, L; Shinfuku, N; et al.

Abstract:Objective: This study longitudinally described ra res of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in two groups with different levels of severity of exposure to an earthquake in North China. The effects of diagnostic criteria on the frequency of detected PTSD were also examined. Method: Subjects were randomly sampled in two villages at different distances from the earthquake epicenter. A total of 181 and 157 subjects were assessed at 3 months and 9 months after the earthquake, respectively, for PTSD by using both DSM-IV and DSM-III-R criteria. The brief Version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment and three subscales of the SCL-90-R were also administered at both assessment points. Results: The village with a higher level of initial exposure to the earthquake and a higher level of postearthquake support had a lower frequency of PTSD than the village with a lower level of initial exposure and less postearthquake support. The rate of onset of DSM-IV PTSD within 9 months for the two villages was 19.8% and 30.3%, respectively. In both villages, the rate of onset of earthquake-related PTSD within 9 months was 24.2% by using DSM-IV criteria and 41.4% by using DSM-III-R criteria. The introduction in DSM-IV of a criterion requiring clinically significant distress or impairment in functioning for a diagnosis of PTSD was a major contributor to the lower rate of DSM-IV PTSD. Conclusions: PTSD may be as prevalent and persistent in disaster victims in China as in those elsewhere. Prompt and effective postdisaster intervention could mitigate the impact of initial exposure and reduce the probability of PTSD occurrence. Caution should be used in comparing rates of postdisaster PTSD identified by using different diagnostic criteria.

Keywords:Network intrusion detection; passive network monitoring; network monitoring evasion; domain-specific languages

來源出版物：American Journal of Psychiatry, 2000, 157(8): 1260-1266

被引頻次：130

Earthquake damage assessment of buildings using VHR optical and SAR imagery

Brunner, Dominik; Lemoine, Guido;Bruzzone, Lorenzo; et al.

Abstract:Rapid damage assessment after natural disasters (e. g., earthquakes) and violent conflicts (e. g., war-related destruction) is crucial for initiating effective emergency response actions. Remote-sensing satellites equipped with very high spatial resolution (VHR) multispectral and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging sensors can provide vital information due to their ability to map the affected areas with high geometric precision and in an uncensored manner. In this paper, we present a novel method that detects buildings destroyed in an earthquake using pre-event VHR optical and post-event detected VHR SAR imagery. The method operates at the level of individual buildings and assumes that they have a rectangular footprint and are isolated. First, the 3-D parameters of a building are estimated from the pre-event optical imagery. Second, the building information and theacquisition parameters of the VHR SAR scene are used to predict the expected signature of the building in the post-event SAR scene assuming that it is not affected by the event. Third, the similarity between the predicted image and the actual SAR image is analyzed. If the similarity is high, the building is likely to be still intact, whereas a low similarity indicates that the building is destroyed. A similarity threshold is used to classify the buildings. We demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the method for a subset of the town of Yingxiu, China, which was heavily damaged in the Sichuan earthquake of May 12, 2008. For the experiment, we use QuickBird and WorldView-1 optical imagery, and TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed SAR data.

Keywords:damage assessment; damage detection; data fusion; multisensor change detection; natural disaster; remote sensing; synthetic aperture radar (SAR); urban areas; very high spatial resolution (VHR) images

來源出版物：IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 2010, 48(5): 2403-2420 Transportation Review, 2007, 43(6): 673-686

被引頻次：130

Mufti-objective optimal planning for designing relief delivery systems

Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung; Cheng, Hsin-Jung; Huang, Tsung Dow

Abstract:The fatal earthquake on September 21, 1999 caused significant damages to Taiwan, which made the national government focus on strengthening relief systems regarding natural disasters. Disaster prevention, protection, and reconstruction are the major areas of focus to reduce human suffering and damage from disasters. A key point is the ability to enhance the distribution of relief materials effectively. In this study, we construct a relief-distribution model using the mufti-objective programming method for designing relief delivery systems in a real case. The model features three objectives: minimizing the total cost, minimizing the total travel time, and maximizing the minimal satisfaction during the planning period. The first two objectives pursue the efficiency goal, whereas the third pursue fairness-making best effort to ensure relief commodity delivery to all demand points. Results of an empirical study are presented and suggestions are given for future research.

Keywords:earthquake; multi-objective programming; natural disaster; relief distribution; relief systems

來源出版物：Transportation Research Part E-Logistics and

被引頻次：80

Development of an earthquake early warning system using real-time strong motion signals

Wu, Yih-Min; Kanamori, Hiroo

Abstract:As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to lives and properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zones offshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) can be a useful tool for reducing earthquake hazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages. An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with a few sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive S-wave part of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time will be useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such as rapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be also useful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown of hightechnological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guarding of computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach to EEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τcand a high-pass filtered vertical displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a given site, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τcand the peak ground-motion velocity (PGV) could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A P-wave trigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τcand Pd are computed. The earthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and the warning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10 sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last for tens of seconds.

Keywords:earthquake; early warning system; seismic hazard mitigation

來源出版物：Sensors, 2008, 8(1): 1-9

被引頻次：73

Seismic resilience of a hospital system

Cimellaro, Gian Paolo; Reinhorn, Andrei M; Bruneau, Michel

Abstract:This paper presents a comprehensive model to quantify disaster resilience of systems that is defined as the capability to sustain functionality and recover from losses generated by extreme events. The model combines loss estimation and recovery models and can be applied to critical facilities (e. g. hospitals, military buildings, etc.), as well as utility lifelines (e. g. electric power systems, transportation networks, water systems etc.) that are crucial to the response of recovery processes, decisions and policies. Current research trend leads toward the definition of complex recovery models that are able to describe the process over time and the spatial definition of recovery (e. g. meta-models for the case of health care facilities). The model has been applied to a network of hospitals in Memphis, Tennessee. The resilience framework can be used as a decision support tool to increase the resilience index of systems, such as health care facilities, and reduce disaster vulnerability and consequences.

Keywords:fragility; functionality; hospital; losses; recovery; resilience

來源出版物：Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2010, 6(2): 127-144

被引頻次：65

Real-time seismology and earthquake hazard mitigation

Kanamori, H; Hauksson, E; Heaton, T

Abstract:Recent advances in seismic sensor technology, data acquisition systems, digital communications, and computer hardware and software make it possible to build reliable real-time earthquake information systems. Such systems provide a means for modern urban regions to cope effectively with the aftermath of major earthquakes and, in some cases, they may even provide warning, seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the long term these systems also provide basic data for mitigation strategies such as improved building codes.

來源出版物：Nature, 1997, 390(6659): 461-464

被引頻次：57

Modelling seismic hazard in earthquake loss models with spatially distributed exposure

Crowley, Helen; Bommer, Julian J

Abstract:The prediction of possible future losses from earthquakes, which in many cases affect structures that are spatially distributed over a wide area, is of importance to national authorities, local governments, and the insurance and reinsurance industries. Generally, it is necessary to estimate the effects of many, or even all, potential earthquake scenarios that could impact upon these urban areas. In such cases, the purpose of the loss calculations is to estimate the annual frequency of exceedance (or the return period) of different levels of loss due to earthquakes: so-called loss exceedance curves. An attractive option for generating loss exceedance curves is to perform independent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment calculations at several locations simultaneously and to combine the losses at each site for each annual frequency of exceedance. An alternative method involves the use of multiple earthquake scenarios to generate ground motions at all sites of interest, defined through Monte-Carlo simulations based on the seismicity model. The latter procedure is conceptually sounder but considerably more time-consuming. Both procedures are applied to a case study loss model and the loss exceedance curves and average annual losses are compared to ascertain the influence of using a more theoretically robust, though computationally intensive, procedure to represent the seismic hazard in loss modelling.

Keywords:average annual loss; earthquake loss modelling; ground-motion variability; scenario earthquakes; seismic hazard; spatial correlation

來源出版物：Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2006, 4(3): 249-273

Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation

Parsons, T; Toda, S; Stein, RS; et al.

We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M=7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62+/-15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32+/-12% during the next decade.來源出版物：Science, 2000, 288(5466): 661-665被引頻次：173A dynamic logistics coordination model for evacuation and support in disaster response activitiesYi, Wei; Ozdamar, LinetAbstract:This paper describes an integrated locationdistribution model for coordinating logistics support and evacuation operations in disaster response activities. Logistics planning in emergencies involves dispatching commodities (e.g., medical materials and personnel, specialised rescue equipment and rescue teams, food, etc.) to distribution centres in affected areas and evacuation and transfer of wounded people to emergency units. During the initial response time it is also necessary to set up temporary emergency centers and shelters in affected areas to speed up medical care for less heavily wounded survivors. In risk mitigation studies for natural disasters, possible sites where these units can be situated are specified according to risk based urban structural analysis. Logistics coordination in disasters involves the selection of sites that result in maximum coverage of medical need in affected areas. Another important issue that arises in such emergencies is that medical personnel who are on duty in nearby hospitals have to be re-shuffled to serve both temporary and permanent emergency units. Thus, an optimal medical personnel allocation must be determined among these units. The proposed model also considers this issue. The proposed model is a mixed integer multi-commodity network flow model that treats vehicles as integer commodity flows rather than binary variables. This results in a more compact formulation whose output is processed to extract a detailed vehicle route and load instruction sheet. Post processing is achieved by a simple routing algorithm that is pseudo-polynomial in the number of vehicles utilized, followed by the solution of a linear system of equations defined in a very restricted domain. The behavior and solvability of the model is illustrated on an earthquake scenario based on Istanbul's risk grid as well as larger size hypothetical disaster scenarios.

secure communication protocols; sensor networks; mobile ad hoc networks; MANET; authentication of wireless communication; secrecy and confidentiality; cryptography

城市范圍內(nèi)的直下型活動斷裂和隱伏活動斷裂探測及地震危險性和危害性評價是十分重要的。立足于城市環(huán)境復雜、污染重、干擾強的特點，文中介紹了城市活動斷裂探測的主要方法，包括地質地貌、地球化學和地球物理方面的多種探測方法。在地質地貌方法中，最新斷裂活動面的斷錯地質地貌制圖及針對斷裂新活動和古地震研究的鉆探和槽探具有特別重要的意義，年輕地質體和地貌面年齡測定是一項關鍵技術；地球化學探查，尤其是多種氣體測項在隱伏斷裂初步定位中起到先鋒作用；在各種地球物理探測中，淺層地震勘探起著關鍵作用，而在探查活動斷裂深部背景和孕震可能性時，各種深地震探測方法是十分重要的。在城市活動斷裂探測這一新的工作中，必須更多地強調和更好地做到地質地貌、地球化學和地球物理探測的結合，做到多種探測手段和勘探方法的綜合運用，這樣才能做好斷裂定位、斷裂活動性判定及分析斷裂孕震條件工作。