巖本健太郎

中國與其他14個亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)體簽署《區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》（RCEP）約兩周后，中國國務(wù)院總理李克強(qiáng)便強(qiáng)調(diào)必須將協(xié)定落到實(shí)處。

“作為RCEP成員國，我國要以自身行動積極推動協(xié)定落地生效，維護(hù)自由貿(mào)易，拓展合作共贏新空間。”李克強(qiáng)總理在2020年12月1日的國務(wù)院常務(wù)會議上說。

由中國、日本、韓國、澳大利亞、新西蘭和東盟10個成員國組成的RCEP約占全球GDP和人口的30%。在2020年11月15日簽署協(xié)議前，美國彼得森國際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所發(fā)表的一項(xiàng)研究顯示，預(yù)計(jì)RCEP削減關(guān)稅的效力，將使2030年時全球出口額比現(xiàn)在增加大約5000億美元。

研究表明，東亞三大國首次通過自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定建立聯(lián)系，將成為RCEP的最大受益者。據(jù)預(yù)測，RCEP的簽署讓中日韓三國的出口將分別增加2480億美元，1280億美元和630億美元。另外，三國間的貿(mào)易增長占據(jù)了其中很大一部分。

日本國際事務(wù)研究所的另一項(xiàng)研究顯示，韓國收獲的經(jīng)濟(jì)貢獻(xiàn)可能最大，RCEP對韓國實(shí)際GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率為6.5%，而日本為5.0%，中國為4.6%。

高盛集團(tuán)也認(rèn)為“中日韓共同形成了一個技術(shù)共同體，通過加入RCEP，三國的技術(shù)活力可以大大提高”，強(qiáng)調(diào)了東盟國家和整個地區(qū)都將受益于“和平合作、更多的外國投資、快速升級的數(shù)字和綠色技術(shù)”。

所有這些尚需正式批準(zhǔn)。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人智庫的一份報(bào)告預(yù)測，還有6個東盟國家和3個非東盟國家要在2021年第3季度才能批準(zhǔn)該協(xié)定。目前，簽署國還在權(quán)衡如何才能最大限度地利用該協(xié)定。

2020年12月，韓國政府與鋼鐵、汽車、機(jī)械和紡織行業(yè)協(xié)會舉行了一次會議。未來，這4個行業(yè)有望獲得最為豐厚的回報(bào)。2020年，RCEP成員國占韓國鋼鐵出口的53.2%，高于2019年的46.8%。韓國煉鋼協(xié)會預(yù)計(jì)，2021年東盟對這種材料的需求將增加430萬噸，達(dá)到7730萬噸。

韓國汽車制造商則希望RCEP能幫助他們“分割”競爭對手日本在東南亞市場74%的份額。該市場擁有6.5億人口，年汽車銷量達(dá)350萬輛。

當(dāng)然，日本汽車制造商也希望自己能提高在東盟市場的銷量。該國的工業(yè)設(shè)備制造商還將享受86%的產(chǎn)品免關(guān)稅進(jìn)入中國的政策，韓國也將取消92%的關(guān)稅。

日本國際事務(wù)研究所的柳田賢介表示，對于已經(jīng)利用現(xiàn)有自貿(mào)區(qū)的東盟國家來說，減少非關(guān)稅壁壘會降低進(jìn)口成本、提高競爭力。未來，馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡和泰國有望出口更多電子產(chǎn)品。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人智庫報(bào)告顯示，除了關(guān)稅，“RCEP還協(xié)調(diào)了原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則的條款，建立了一套獨(dú)立的區(qū)域規(guī)則，有效建立了一個單一中間產(chǎn)品市場，這些都將推動整個區(qū)域供應(yīng)鏈的建立。”該智庫補(bǔ)充，海關(guān)制度一體化可以推動外國投資進(jìn)入較小的東盟市場，如緬甸、老撾和柬埔寨，這些市場監(jiān)管的不確定性一直是一個障礙。

亞洲貿(mào)易投資的加速卻伴隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的急劇減速。由于新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行，世界貿(mào)易組織在2020年10月份預(yù)測，2020年全球商品貿(mào)易量將萎縮9.2%。國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)計(jì)，2020年全球GDP將下降4.4%。

而中國，作為為數(shù)不多在2020年實(shí)現(xiàn)正增長的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一，決心抓住全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的韁繩，馳騁走出當(dāng)下危機(jī)。

就在新年前夕，中國與歐盟簽署了一項(xiàng)投資協(xié)議。RCEP簽署后的幾天，中國也對加入另一大型貿(mào)易協(xié)議——有11個成員國的《全面與進(jìn)步跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》（CPTPP）表示興趣。

但有些人看來，未來局勢并不明朗。

堪薩斯大學(xué)專門研究貿(mào)易法的著名教授拉吉·巴拉指出，在商品和服務(wù)、外國直接投資和知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的覆蓋范圍方面，RCEP沒有CPTPP和其他大型協(xié)議那么大。

亞洲韓禮士基金會研究員亞歷克斯·卡普里也提出了類似的觀點(diǎn)。在他看來，RCEP是一個受到認(rèn)可的多邊主義愿景，但他也提醒成員國在執(zhí)行深層次貿(mào)易標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時關(guān)注自身能力的差異。

“總的來說，RCEP允許個別國家選擇退出并表明退出的關(guān)鍵條款。這算是一個分層協(xié)議。”同時兼任新加坡國立大學(xué)商學(xué)院客座高級研究員的卡普里表示，“比如，印度尼西亞要求推遲2年執(zhí)行貿(mào)易便利化條款。在RCEP倡導(dǎo)電子商務(wù)、投資和解決爭端的同時，RCEP成員國中的個別國家也加倍努力在數(shù)據(jù)本地化法律上下功夫。協(xié)定中的條款最終是否會得到廣泛統(tǒng)一的頒布和執(zhí)行，我對此持觀望態(tài)度?！?/p>

范圍有限和執(zhí)行情況不明確并不是阻止RCEP打破全球平衡的唯一因素。巴拉和卡普里都指出，拜登在美國大選中打敗特朗普，希望能重申美國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。但他并未明確表示，是否會考慮加入RCEP，或者推翻前任退出TPP（現(xiàn)已成為CPTPP）的決定。但在2020年12月28日的一次演講中，這位總統(tǒng)誓要“重新獲得世界的信任和信心?！?/p>

巴拉預(yù)測，拜登頭幾年可能不會帶來什么重大的自由貿(mào)易舉措，“但往后有可能會看到他作出驚人舉動。”

·來源：《日經(jīng)亞洲》

·編譯：陳志瑩

The Next Great Leap in Thailands Transportation Infrastructure

If you live in Bangkok， there is a slim chance that you would miss noticing the extravagant Bang Sue Grand Station while driving on the Sri Rat Expressway. If you get stuck up there in a traffic jam， which is common in this city， you could even spend time to carefully study the futuristic structure from different angles.

Its function is explicitly hinted from its exterior that has a New Yorks Grand Station-like vibe. This grand station is on its way to becoming another top attraction in Bangkok — a new landmark with an external design inspired by Hua Lamphong Station but with a modern twist recognizable from miles away. The station is Thailands next mega infrastructure project which will not only help ease Bangkoks infamous traffic congestion， but also support the countrys role as a regional transportation hub. It is positioned to strengthen Thailands railway system and its connections with the regional transportation network， hence enhancing economic growth.

If there is one word to describe the rationale of this project — it is mobility. Thailand has great ambitions to use its railway network to transport passengers and goods more effectively and more economically， particularly to lower its logistics cost which stands around 13.6% of GDP in 2018. Since the inception of the railway system in Thailand in 1893， this is probably the first bold move to upgrade the system at a mega scale.

Bang Sue Grand Station is just one piece of the whole jigsaw puzzle， albeit a major one. It will replace the grande dame Bangkok Station or Hua Lamphong as the capitals railway hub with a much larger capacity and seamless connectivity to match Thailands regional ambitions. Besides intercity trains， it will also serve underground， commuter and high-speed trains that link Suvarnabhumi， Don Mueang， and U-Tapao international airports. The 220 kilometres train route between Don Mueang in Bangkok and U-Tapao in Rayong province could be traveled in under an hour， ready to transport Bangkokians to hit the Rayong beach in only a heartbeat.

To date， the external construction of the station has already been completed， and only interior tweeks are required for the station to be fully functional by 2021. The station covers an area of 1，280 acres， and is set to be the largest railway station in Southeast Asia. Standing four stories high， with 12 platforms and 24 tracks， Bang Sue Grand Station can accommodate 26 to 40 trains at the same time， with a daily passenger capacity as high as 600，000 persons or ten times more than its century old predecessor Hua Lamphong Station. Think about it. More trains means less waiting time and faster travels.

Designed to be environmentally friendly， the station will have at least 30% green spaces and according to Voravut Mala， former Acting Governor of the State Railway of Thailand， it will be? pollution free since it will serve only electric trains.

Initially， the station was planned as an extension of the Red Line Mass Transit System in the national Infrastructure Development Plan （2015-2022）. Later on， authorities expanded the plan， transforming the main terminus platform to accommodate various types of rail services. Similar to Japans Tokyo Station and Taiwans Taipei Main Station， Bang Sue Grand Station will act as a new transit hub primed with facilities for future installments of hi-tech equipment and system.

Once the high speed railway to U-Tapao is completed， it will facilitate travel between Bangkok and the Eastern Economic Corridor （EEC）， a flagship project of Thailand to promote higher valued investments of upgraded industries that are more high-tech-oriented. It will also complement Thailands prominent tourism industry， as well as contribute to urbanisation and the decentralisation of cities， expanding economic opportunities beyond city walls.

People living in surrounding areas of Bangkok， the next generation of rail services will enable them to skip the traffic and hop on the ‘Red Line commuter trains. There are two routes in the Red Line; the north-south Dark Red Line from Ayutthaya to Ratchaburi for a distance of 114.3 kilometres， and the west-east? Light Red Line connecting Nakhon Pathom with Chacheongsao in 127.5 kilometres.

For those looking forward to hopping onto the first high-speed train， the journey also starts at Bang Sue Grand Station， as the station will offer a platform for extended high-speed railway projects in the upcoming decades.

The first high-speed train project to be materialised is the route from Bangkok to Nong Khai， a Thai-Sino collaboration to connect Thailand with Lao PDR and China. The first phase from Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima spanning 250.77 kilometres is under construction right now. The rest of the route linking Nakhon Ratchasima with Nong Khai covers a distance of 356.1 kilometres. Once completed， this project will enable travellers from Bangkok to reach Nong Khai in just three hours time instead of the usual 11-hour train ride or the 8-hour drive on the road.

Consequently， Bang Sue Grand Station and Thailands railway network will enhance ASEAN intraregional connectivity and could， in the foreseeable future， be extended to link with Chinas Belt Road Initiative （BRI） or other prospective bilateral or regional logistical projects.

The plan for Bang Sue Grand Station is not limited only to trains and tracks. Inspired by the success of Japan in urban development based on railway， Thailand hopes to promote Bang Sue Grand Station as a catalyst for developing a New Central Business District around the station. The State Railway of Thailand （SRT） plans to adopt the Transit Oriented Development （TOD） model into the surrounding the area to draw in more investment in business complexes and residential units.

This infrastructural elevation will undoubtedly generate a new stream of jobs and income for the local economy. At the same time， the infamous Bangkok traffic will hopefully ease as a result of a more efficient commuting network， subsequently decreasing the number of city dwellers as they spread out to reside outside city areas. Completion of this mega project is timely as Thailand and the world is facing a pandemic. Mass employment and business opportunities both domestically and regionally could offer a chance for the people and the economy to finally pick up and get back on track.

· Source： Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Thailand