WorldEconomyandItsRisks

Editor’sNote: Recent world economic recovery is caused by multiple factors,but elevated risks make China’s external economic environment more complex.Recently,our editorial department invited experts to talk about the current world economy and the risks.

QualitativeChangeCausedbyRegularandIrregularFactors:USChinaPolicyAdjustment

NiFeng

Abstract: Since the end of 2017,the US has launched an intensive and extensive ofensive to China and Sino-US relations have taken on a volatile and unpredictable turn.There are many regular and irregular factors which impact US’ China policy.Balance of power and mutual recognition can be regarded as a regular factor and Trump phenomenon a irregular factor.The convergence of both factors has presented an unprecedentedly negative consensus on China.The US’ China policy is going through qualitative changes.

Keywords: Sino-US relations; irregular factors; regular factors; American system

EconomicandStrategic“Decoupling”ofChinaandtheUS

WangYouandChenDingding

Abstract: The economic and strategic ‘decoupling’ of China and the United States’ mainly refers to weakening of the linkage between the two countries’ economic relations,estrangement of political relations and diminishing of strategic cooperation.The trend of “decoupling” is predominantly caused by new adjustments of the US strategy toward China.It can be said that the current American grand strategy community has reached a consensus,which is to actively “decouple” with China through a series of policies in order to safeguard US’ national interests and secure its international leadership.Signs of the “decoupling” of economic and strategic relations between China and the United States have already emerged in a number of areas,becoming a development worthy of concern for both the Chinese and American governments.Currently,the “decoupling” of the economic and strategic relations between China and US is detrimental to the two countries’ political engagements,mutually beneficial economic cooperation and even the stability and development of the region and the world.Managing differences,as well as rectifying “decoupling” should be a common concern for both China and the United States.The process of “decoupling” can be delayed or even reversed by the joint efforts of the two countries.

Keywords: Sino-US relations; decoupling; anti-globalization

DomesticFactorsinTrumpAdministration’sPressuretowardChina

LiuWeidong

Abstract: Since the end of last year,the Trump administration has carried out unprecedented and comprehensive pressure on China.The reaction of circles of the US is obviously different from the past.Although business community,social elites,the public and congressmen have different opinions about whether to launch a trade war,they unanimously support the Trump administration to take a hard line on China.The US pays more attention to China,it has a strong sense of anxiety and sense of urgency on China,which calls for adjustment of the engagement strategy,and vigorously pushes the Trump administration to break the tradition and take the initiative.However,most Americans worry about serious damage from the confrontation with China,some related groups and members of Congress are pressing the Trump administration to avoid it.All of these gestures provide a solid support for the Trump administration to put more pressure on China,promote the breakthrough of limitation,aggravate its policy instability as well as constrain the intensity of the confrontation to a certain extent.

Keywords: Trump Administration; Sino-US Relations; pressure; domestic factors

AnAnalysisoftheEU’sAmbivalencetowardsGlobalization

LiuMingli

Abstract: The EU,as a whole,shows no clear consensus for globalization,presenting a contradictory attitude and policy orientation.It wants to enjoy the benefits of globalization,and tries to avoid related challenges.For example,EU actively resists protectionism from the United States,but its own policies also have protectionist tendencies.EU supports the multilateral cooperation mechanism,but it wants to modify the rules according to its own will.There are many reasons behind EU’s ambivalence.On one hand,EU includes members who have different economic performance in the globalization,so it is difficult for them to reach an agreement.On the other hand,the complex decision-making of the EU was also relevant.The EU’s ambivalence will affect its role in the global economy.In the future,EU may play the role of a reformer of multilateral mechanisms,a mediator of international trade disputes and a laggard of economic reform.

Keywords: EU; globalization; protectionism; multilateral mechanism

(Edited By Zhang Yimeng)