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四分球時代

2014-04-29 00:44:03TomHaberstroh
扣籃 2014年4期
關(guān)鍵詞:克勞福德三分球命中率

Tom Haberstroh

Dear Adam Silver:

親愛的亞當(dāng)·蕭華:

Congratulations on the new gig! Big shoes to fill①. Not literally, of course. Ive seen you and David Stern standing next to each other, and Im guessing youve never tried to put on his Air Jordans.

恭喜你接手這份新工作!擺在眼前的這雙鞋夠大的,當(dāng)然,這句話不能直接從字面意思理解。我見過你和大衛(wèi)·斯特恩站在一起,我猜你也從來不想穿上他的喬丹系列球鞋。

Look, I know youre a busy guy these days. Youre set to take over as the NBA commissioner this weekend, replacing the irreplaceable Stern, who has taken this league to towering heights over the past 30 years. You probably dont have time right now for a PowerPoint-filled meeting, which is why Im writing you this letter.Tuck this away and feel free to read it after you meet with some guy named LeBron James. Totally understand. He apparently has some ideas for "the commish," as he calls you.Get to him first.

我知道最近你特忙。周末你就要接替無可替換的斯特恩,成為NBA聯(lián)盟的總裁了,過去30年,斯特恩將NBA帶到了一個前所未有的高度。你現(xiàn)在很可能連參加小會議的時間都沒有,正因?yàn)槿绱?,我給你寫了這封信。當(dāng)你和諸如勒布朗·詹姆斯這樣的人見面后,抽時間讀下這封信吧。我理解你的做法。詹姆斯顯然會為“總裁先生”提出不少想法,他肯定會這么稱呼你的。先去跟他交流好了。

But I have ideas, too. HoopIdeas, you might say. And todays HoopIdea is one that would make the game more exciting.

但我也有自己的想法。你也許會說,這是籃球頭腦風(fēng)暴。而這次籃球頭腦風(fēng)暴,能讓這項(xiàng)運(yùn)動變得更加有趣。

This HoopIdea has special significance for Thursday night, when the Clippers and Warriors play on TNT. The game should be great theater. One reason? It showcases three of the games premiere long-ball specialists: Stephen Curry, Jamal Crawford and Jordan Crawford.

這次籃球頭腦風(fēng)暴對周四晚上尤其重要,那時TNT將直播快船和勇士的比賽。這場比賽想必會非常精彩。為什么呢?比賽集中了聯(lián)盟中三個重要的遠(yuǎn)距離出手專家:斯蒂芬·庫里、賈馬爾·克勞福德和喬丹·克勞福德。

You know what I love about these guys? They have parking-lot range, pulling up occasionally from way downtown. And fans love it. Did you see Jamal Crawfords 33-footer on Wednesday night? Its amazing.

你知道我喜歡這些人什么嗎?他們的射程太遠(yuǎn)了,他們有時候能從三分線外很遠(yuǎn)的地方出手投籃。球迷也特別喜歡看這個。你看賈馬爾·克勞福德周三晚上那個33英尺外的出手了嗎?那太精彩了。

In a game full of Goliaths, this is Davids slingshot. But they dont take that slingshot out of their back pocket very often. Not nearly enough. Why? Because theres no incentive to showcase their talents with the current rules. Why take a 33-footer when a 23-footer yields the same number of points? Basically, were telling them to not use this particular skill.

在一項(xiàng)遍布巨人的運(yùn)動中,這就是大衛(wèi)的殺手锏。但他們也不會經(jīng)常出手這種投籃,這種出手其實(shí)太少了,為什么呢?因?yàn)樵诂F(xiàn)行規(guī)則中,他們沒有動力展現(xiàn)這種才華。當(dāng)23英尺投籃和33英尺投籃的得分相同時,為什么要出手33英尺投籃呢?我們基本上就是在告訴他們,不要使用這種特別的技能。

Lets encourage these long balls. We should see more of them. They display basketball talent at its finest. As fans, part of the allure of sports is that we witness human beings doing things we could never do. Like the greatest dunks, these shots define NBA players as the greatest athletes in the world.

讓我們鼓勵這種遠(yuǎn)距離出手吧,我們應(yīng)該看到更多這種投籃。它們展現(xiàn)了最美好的籃球技術(shù)。作為球迷,體育的迷人之處在于,我們能目睹人類做出一些我們自己永遠(yuǎn)也做不到的事。就像那些偉大的扣籃,那些讓NBA球員成為世界上最偉大運(yùn)動員的偉大進(jìn)球那樣。

Youre a progressive thinker, Adam. You want whats best for basketball. So heres my HoopIdea to take the NBA to the next level:

亞當(dāng),你是個有創(chuàng)新意識的人。你想為籃球帶來最好的東西。那么,以下就是我的籃球頭腦風(fēng)暴,能把NBA帶到更高的層次:

You should introduce the 4-point line.

你應(yīng)該引入四分線。

I know what youre thinking. If it aint broke, dont fix it, right? I hear that, but lets not settle.

我知道你在想什么。如果沒出簍子就沒必要修補(bǔ),對吧?我懂,但不要連想都不想。

I subscribe to the HoopIdea mantra: Basketball is the best game ever. Now lets make it better.

我認(rèn)同籃球頭腦風(fēng)暴座右銘:籃球是史上最好的運(yùn)動?,F(xiàn)在讓我們把它變得更好吧。

The 4-point line would make the game better.

四分線就能讓這項(xiàng)運(yùn)動變得更好。

Havent you noticed that the court is feeling increasingly cramped with all these monster bodies? Somehow, the NBA court dimensions havent been updated since World War II even though the average player is 25 pounds heavier and 3 inches taller than in the 1950s. Thats 250 pounds of extra muscle on the floor, and 10 men are still playing in the same box. Does that make any sense?

難道你不覺得,有了這么多身強(qiáng)力壯的球員,球場感覺有點(diǎn)擁擠?不知為什么,自從第二次世界大戰(zhàn)后,籃球場的大小就沒有進(jìn)行過調(diào)整,盡管相比50年代,球隊(duì)的平均體重重了25磅、平均身高高出了3英寸。這么算下來,球場上多出了250磅的肌肉,而球場上還是有10個人在打球。這么做說得過去嗎?

With rigorous year-round workout regimens, players are bigger than ever, stronger than ever, faster than ever. As luck would have it, there arent any Shaquille ONeals and Yao Mings in the game now, but we do have a 7-foot-2 guy tweeting videos of himself deadlifting 420 pounds over and over. The reigning MVP is the size of Karl Malone, but plays with the speed of John Wall and the skilled grace of Steve Nash. These guys are giants and only getting larger.

通過每年嚴(yán)格的訓(xùn)練,球員比以往更為高大、更加強(qiáng)壯、跑得更快。要說幸運(yùn)的話,現(xiàn)在的聯(lián)盟里已經(jīng)沒有沙奎爾·奧尼爾和姚明了,但我們還是能看到一個身高7尺2寸的家伙在推特上發(fā)了一段自己不停舉起420磅杠鈴的視頻。聯(lián)盟的MVP有著卡爾·馬龍的身材,但卻擁有約翰·沃爾的速度和史蒂夫·納什的技術(shù)。這些家伙就是巨人,而且他們的身材會變得越來越高大。

If youre not ready to widen the court, then at the very least add the 4-point arc. (Regarding the width of the court,though: simple geometry suggests a larger perimeter of a rectangle means more courtside seats, not fewer.)

如果你不準(zhǔn)備擴(kuò)大球場面積,那至少也該引入四分線。(考慮到球場寬度:運(yùn)用簡單的幾何學(xué)原理就能明白,更大的長方形意味著會有更多的場邊坐席,而不是更少。)

Though Id prefer the 4-point arc to extend to the corners, I can accept the 4-point arc to hit the out-of-bounds sideline by the coachs box hash mark.

不過我卻更喜歡一直延伸到底角的四分線這個想法。我可以接受四分線一直延伸出邊線直到教練席這種觀點(diǎn)。

Increasingly, space is at a premium, but space is what fuels the game. The rise of the 3-pointer has been a boon to the game, not just because of all the great shooters, but because of all the space it creates.

由此,球場空間也會拉得更開,空間其實(shí)增強(qiáng)了比賽的趣味性。三分球的增多對聯(lián)盟是有益的,不止因?yàn)槌霈F(xiàn)了那么多偉大的投手,而是因?yàn)槿志€拉開的球場空間。

You need space to dunk. You need space to see the floor. You need space to run, jump and do the things that make basketball unique compared to any other sport.

想扣籃,你得有空間。想看清球場形勢,你得有空間。想跑動、跳躍、做出那些讓籃球不同于其他運(yùn)動的動作,你需要空間。

When theres space, thats when the magic happens. Open up the game and add a 4-point line that would spread the floor and help facilitate all the plays that make fans keep coming back.

有了空間,才有魔力發(fā)揮的空間。讓球場空間變得更大,開拓思維增加四分線,能增大球場空間,從而有助于那些吸引球迷不斷回來看比賽的進(jìn)球的出現(xiàn)。

I get it: People hate change. Its part of what makes us human.

我明白:人們討厭改變。這是我們之所以為人的原因。

At the same time, people love to see things get better. Thats why this HoopIdea works: It makes the game better.

與此同時,人們也喜歡看到事情變得更好。這也是為什么籃球頭腦風(fēng)暴是行得通的:它能讓比賽變得更好。

The 3-point line was one of the best things to happen to the NBA. If you remember, folks were wildly against that innovation at first. Coaches initially thought it was a gimmick and rarely utilized it. In the inaugural season of the 3-point line in the NBA back in 1979-80, the average team took just 2.8 3-pointers per game. Thats it. In the second season, it dropped to 2.0 3-pointers. Teams barely shot them at a 25 percent clip.

三分線是NBA做出的最好決定之一。如果你還記得,人們最初是強(qiáng)烈抵制這種做法的。教練們最初只把三分當(dāng)作小伎倆,很少使用這種技術(shù)。回到NBA引進(jìn)三分線的第一個賽季,也就是1979-80賽季,球隊(duì)平均每場比賽只投出2.8個三分。就這么少。到了第二個賽季,這個數(shù)字跌到了2.0個。球隊(duì)的平均三分命中率也只有25%。

Basketball people were nervous at first. But the long ball opened up the game, added a fascinating layer of strategy, and made the NBA more entertaining. Really, it was never a gimmick. Shooting from long distance is a fundamental basketball skill that should be rewarded and encouraged to its fullest extent. From a philosophical standpoint, theres no reason we shouldnt have players display their basketball talents as much as they can.

籃球員最初是緊張的。但遠(yuǎn)距離投籃拓展了比賽,增加了新戰(zhàn)術(shù),也讓NBA更具娛樂性。說真的,三分從來就不是小伎倆。遠(yuǎn)距離投籃是一項(xiàng)基本籃球技術(shù),我們應(yīng)該回饋并鼓勵這種技術(shù)。從哲學(xué)角度出發(fā),我們沒理由不讓球員盡可能多地展現(xiàn)自己的能力。

Now the question becomes, where do you put the 4-point line? This is where the math comes in.

現(xiàn)在,問題來了,四分線該劃在什么位置?這里就要用上數(shù)學(xué)了。

The 4-point line needs to be placed at a distance where teams still have to weigh the costs and benefit of taking a 4-pointer versus a 3-pointer versus a 2-pointer. We dont want the distance so short that the game devolves into a 4-point shooting contest. Thats not the right solution. It probably wouldnt even be fun over 48 minutes. We have to strike a balance.

四分線的距離,應(yīng)該遠(yuǎn)到讓球隊(duì)不得不考慮出手四分相比出手三分和兩分的利弊。我們不希望距離太近,這樣比賽就會變成四分大賽,這是不對的。這樣的話,48分鐘的比賽就不會那么有趣了,我們得找到平衡。

Finding that statistical equilibrium is tricky, but after researching the leagues shooting percentages, I believe that a 4-point arc at about 28 feet makes the most sense. Over the past three seasons, players have shot 23 percent from 28-32 feet, according to NBA StatsCube② data.

從統(tǒng)計學(xué)上找到平衡點(diǎn)是很微妙的,但研究了聯(lián)盟投籃命中率后,我相信在距離籃筐28英尺處設(shè)四分線是最合理的。過去三個賽季,根據(jù)NBA StatsCube的統(tǒng)計,球員有23%的出手發(fā)生在28到32英尺范圍內(nèi)。

So if we make a 28-foot shot worth four points, thats effectively paying off the same as shooting 46 percent on 2-pointers. Thats a little below the current value of 3-pointers, which is important, because we want to protect the significance of the 3-point line. So putting the line at about 28 feet makes a 4-pointer valuable but maintains the value of 2-pointers and 3-pointers, as well, providing coaches and players with another strategic option.

所以如果我們把28英尺的進(jìn)球算成四分,這種進(jìn)球效率就相當(dāng)于兩分球46%的命中率。這種四分球價值比三分球低一些,這很重要,因?yàn)槲覀冞€想保護(hù)三分線存在的價值。所以在28英尺處設(shè)立四分線能讓四分球變得有價值,但又保證了兩分球和三分球的價值,為教練和球員提供了其他戰(zhàn)術(shù)選擇。

At first there were very few players who were good at 3s. That would probably be the same case with 4-pointers, at first.

最開始很少有球員擅長投三分球。四分球引入最初大概也會遇到這種情況。

Curry, the Crawfords and Lillard would be the pioneers, staking out new territory on the perimeter. But they wouldnt be alone out there for long. Players would adapt, expanding their range and becoming more proficient from 4-point range. If 4-pointers evolve like 3-pointers, players wont be shooting 23 percent for long. Coaches will adapt, too, just as they have adjusted to the 3-point line.

庫里、兩個克勞福德和利拉德會成為先驅(qū),嘗試新的遠(yuǎn)距離投籃。但他們獨(dú)自探索的情況不會持續(xù)太久。球員都會接受這個新事物,他們會進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大自己的出手范圍,讓自己的四分球技術(shù)更嫻熟。如果四分球能像三分球那樣發(fā)展,23%的命中率不會持續(xù)太久。教練也會接受,就像他們接受三分線一樣。

How good can shooters get from there? Its hard to say with certainty, but it likely will be harder to master than the 3-pointer, which has topped out at about 36 percent overall. Well probably see some players who get really excited but have no business shooting from that far out (see: Josh Smith). Those guys will help keep the 4-point percentage at a reasonable mark.投手能從中得到多少好處?我們很難給出確定答案,但四分球的難度應(yīng)該比三分球大,而三分的命中率大概36%出頭。我們大概能看到有球員會特別高興有四分球這么個東西,但他們真的沒這種遠(yuǎn)投技術(shù)(比如約什·史密斯)。這些人能讓四分球的出手率維持在一個合理的限度。

Adam, youve been around the league long enough to know that players love shooting from very far away. Teammates have half-court contests after NBA practices, and the half-court shot is an official part of All-Star Weekend now. In warm-ups before games, players often unfurl 30-footers to get the juices flowing and wow the crowd. Its fun. Its challenging. Its fascinating. There have been ad campaigns around the spectacle and teams regularly tweet their players shooting from deep.

亞當(dāng),你在聯(lián)盟的時間夠久了,你該知道球員們很喜歡從非常遠(yuǎn)的地方出手。球隊(duì)隊(duì)友之間會在訓(xùn)練后進(jìn)行半場投籃比賽,而中場投籃已經(jīng)成了全明星周末正式比賽的一部分。在賽前熱身中,球員經(jīng)常會投個30英尺的跳投,活躍氣氛讓球迷開心。這很有意思,也很有挑戰(zhàn)性,太吸引人了。對于神奇的表現(xiàn),我們總能看到各種宣傳,球隊(duì)也經(jīng)常在推特上發(fā)出球員超遠(yuǎn)距離投籃的視頻。

And here is one big benefit from this HoopIdea: It would help eradicate a creeping issue in the sport, which is when players hold the ball rather than shoot it before the buzzer. This drives me and other fans crazy, because players should always be trying to score. This is one of the coolest parts of the game and the league essentially discourages it. Players dont want to hurt their field goal percentages when the payoff is worth only three points. Make it four points and youll see players more willing to launch them.

這個籃球創(chuàng)新的重要優(yōu)點(diǎn)在于:這有利于消除體育中一個令人不爽的現(xiàn)實(shí),也就是在結(jié)束哨聲響起前,球員寧可耗完時間也不出手。這種現(xiàn)實(shí)都快把我和其他球迷逼瘋了,因?yàn)榍騿T時刻都該想著得分。這是籃球運(yùn)動中最酷的一部分,但聯(lián)盟本質(zhì)上卻不鼓勵這種做法。當(dāng)出手的回報只有三分時,球員不愿意降低自己的命中率。把回報變成四分,你就會發(fā)現(xiàn)球員更愿意出手了。

Put it this way: Its not good that the Miami Heat have taken only two shots this season from behind the half-court stripe. Theyve swallowed almost every opportunity to score in those situations, just to preserve their field goal percentage. Make it worth it for the players.

這么看:本賽季邁阿密熱火只在中線后出手兩次,這不是好事。面對這種得分機(jī)會時,他們幾乎每次都選擇了放棄,只是為了保證自己的命中率。讓球員更愿意出手這種投籃吧。

Also, this will make the end of the game more compelling. A late four-point deficit would become a one-possession game -- not a drawn-out foul fest that makes our eyeballs bleed. And a 10-point lead late in the fourth quarter wouldnt be a reason to change the channel.

此外,這還能讓比賽最后變得更加刺激。最后關(guān)頭落后四分,這只是一個回合的分差了——而不是不停采用犯規(guī)戰(zhàn)術(shù)讓人無法直視。而第四節(jié)末段10分的領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢也不至于讓球迷換臺看其他的節(jié)目了。

I understand the concerns, beyond making Antoine Walker upset that he wasnt born later. We dont want the NBA to turn into a "Rock N Jock" circus act.除了讓安東尼·沃克后悔自己沒有生得更晚外,我能理解其中的擔(dān)憂。我們不想讓NBA變成馬戲團(tuán)。But many thought that would be the case with the 3-point line, and instead weve learned that players showcasing their skills is a good thing, not a bad thing. Were not adding a 30-foot high basket or a 10-point hot spot on the floor. Save that for the novelty acts.

但在三分線出現(xiàn)時也出現(xiàn)過同樣的擔(dān)憂,我們卻明白,讓球員展示自己的能力是件好事,而不是壞事。我們并不是搞出了30英尺高的籃筐,也不是在球場搞出了10分投籃點(diǎn)。這種東西還是留在創(chuàng)新大賽用吧。

Not totally on board with the 4-point line? Test it out in the NBA lab called the D-League. See how it sticks. And when you watch Thursdays action with Curry and the Crawfords, imagine the 4-pointer.

還不太信服四分線?在NBA實(shí)驗(yàn)室,也就是發(fā)展聯(lián)盟試驗(yàn)一下好了??纯辞闆r到底怎么樣。當(dāng)你看到周四庫里和克勞福德們的表演時,想象一下四分線吧。

This is your NBA, Adam. Youre going to be the man to take us into the future. Basketball is the best game ever. Now lets make it better.

NBA現(xiàn)在屬于你了,亞當(dāng)。你才是會帶領(lǐng)我們走向未來的人?;@球是有史以來最棒的運(yùn)動,現(xiàn)在,讓我們把它變得更好吧。

Sincerely fours,

祝好,

Tom Haberstroh

湯姆·哈伯斯特羅

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