呂　飛

Forty-eight hours before a devastating earthquake ripped through southwestern China，Jiang Weisong，director of the seismology bureau in the southern city of Nanning，worried that a tremor was imminent.

His reason? The cobras at nearby snake farms were behaving strangely.

Theyd stopped eating，and they were jumping in their cages， says Mr.Jiang，who videotaped the unusual behavior in the days leading up to the earthquake.We believed there might be a big quake，but we werent sure where it would be.

Two days later，one of the worst earthquakes in three decades pummeled Chinas southwestern Sichuan province.

Despite decades of study，there are still no reliable systems for predicting earthquakes.But Mr.Jiangs research is reviving a question that has long occupied the gray zone between science and folklore： whether animals can pick up signals undetectable to humans to predict seismic events.

The theory has drawn skepticism，though not outright dismissal，from Western scientists.“You cant just dismiss this out of hand，” says Joseph Kirschvink，a professor of geobiology at the California Institute of Technology.“Its not unreasonable for these animals to have evolved seismic-escape responses in this fashion.” He believes more study is needed，but notes that snakes，as vertebrates，“need navigation systems，and theyre very sensitive to vibrations in the ground.”

In China，cobras are a restaurant delicacy raised on farms.In 2006，Mr.Jiang and his team in Nanning started an unusual earthquake-detection scheme that involves monitoring dozens of snake nests 24 hours a day for signs of erratic behavior prior to earthquakes.Mr.Jiang claims the snakes have already predicted numerous small tremors.

In 373 B.C.，historians recorded that rats，snakes and weasels abandoned the Greek city of Helice in droves just days before a quake devastated the city.After the December 2004 Asian earthquake and tsunami，officials in Sri Lanka，Thailand and elsewhere reported that herds of antelopes，elephants，and deer fled to hilltop safety just minutes before the wave hit，leading to a remarkably low number of animal casualties.

The Chinese have long given credence to the role of animals in predicting earthquakes.In 1975，Chinese authorities evacuated roughly a million people from the city of Haicheng in northeastern China ahead of a massive earthquake，in part based on the odd behavior of dozens of animals，including snakes that mysteriously emerged from hibernation despite freezing temperatures.

A later report by Chinese researchers noted strange animal behavior prior to the quake，including snakes found frozen on the road … chickens refusing to enter the coop，pigs rooting at their fence，cows breaking their halters and escaping.The report also note that“rats appeared to behave as though drunk，and police dogs ，refused to obey commands.”

The next year，after an earthquake in Tangshan killed hundreds of thousands，a United Nations report found that residents of one nearby county had managed to evacuate after they noticed nocturnal animals such as rats running around during the daytime.

In the wake of the recent quake，Chinese Web sites and newspapers are buzzing with new reports about strange animal behavior leading up to the disaster.One of the most unusual reports comes from Mianzhu，a southwestern city battered by the quake.Prior to the quake，thousands of toads flooded the city streets in an event so bizarre a local TV news team reported on it.

“Could this be a sign that a natural disaster is coming?” asked a Chinese newscaster on May 10th，two days before the quake struck.The video is posted on YouTube.

David Bickford，a toad expert at the National University of Singapore，described the footage as “very，very strange，” but says its likely a “freakish coincidence.” He says toads sometimes travel en masse to breeding sites，or emerge in groups when large numbers of young are born at the same time.Nonetheless，he acknowledges that “frogs and toads communicate using sound，and some may be sensitive enough to detect vibrations in the earth.”

汶川大地震發(fā)生前48小時，南寧市地震局局長蔣維松就擔心可能會發(fā)生地震。

他的理由是什么呢?附近養(yǎng)蛇場的眼鏡蛇舉止異常。

蔣維松說，“這些蛇近期急躁不安，不進食，跳進籠子里；我們相信可能會發(fā)生大地震，但無法確定哪里會發(fā)生地震。他用錄像機拍攝下了地震前幾天眼鏡蛇的異常舉止。”

兩天之后，中國西南省份四川發(fā)生了三十年來最為嚴重的一次地震。

盡管進行了數(shù)十年的研究，但人類目前仍缺乏可靠的地震預(yù)測系統(tǒng)。不過，蔣維松的研究使一種長期以來處于科學和民間傳說之間灰色地帶的問題再次引起人們的關(guān)注：動物是否能感知人類無法探測到的信號，進而預(yù)測到地震。

西方科學家雖然沒有全盤否定這一理論，但一直對其持懷疑態(tài)度。加州理工學院地理生物學教授約瑟夫·基爾希文克說，“你不能完全否定這種說法，這些動物經(jīng)過進化，作出這樣的地震逃生反應(yīng)并非沒有可能?！彼J為還需要進行更多的研究，不過他也指出，蛇屬于脊椎動物，“需要導(dǎo)向系統(tǒng)，而且它們對大地的振動非常敏感。”

在中國，有專門的養(yǎng)蛇場，一些餐館還提供用蛇制作的菜肴。2006年，蔣維松和他的小組在南寧開始進行一項不同尋常的地震探測計劃，需要對數(shù)十個蛇窩進行全天24小時監(jiān)測，記錄蛇群在地震前是否有異常舉止。蔣維松稱，這些蛇已經(jīng)預(yù)測到了很多輕微的地震。

根據(jù)歷史學家的記錄，公元前373年，希臘海利斯城發(fā)生大地震前，有很多老鼠、蛇和臭鼬紛紛遷出城。2004年12月亞洲地震和海嘯發(fā)生之后，斯里蘭卡、泰國等地的官員報告稱，在海嘯發(fā)生前幾分鐘，成群的羚羊、大象和鹿逃到山頂安全的地方，因此動物的傷亡數(shù)量非常低。

中國人很早以前就相信動物在預(yù)測地震方面的功能。在1975年年初海城大地震前，中國有關(guān)部門疏散了約100萬人，部分原因就是發(fā)現(xiàn)很多動物出現(xiàn)反常舉止，比如，冬眠的蛇居然不顧天寒地凍從洞里爬了出來。

中國研究人員在之后的一份報告中指出了地震前動物的反常舉止，例如凍死在路上的蛇、雞不回窩、豬緊攀上圍欄、牛掙脫索具跑掉。報告還說，老鼠看起來就像是喝醉了一樣，警犬拒絕服從命令。

第二年唐山地震發(fā)生后，聯(lián)合國的一份報告指出，在唐山附近的一個縣城，居民們發(fā)現(xiàn)老鼠等本是夜間活動的動物在大白天跑來跑去，于是進行了疏散。

汶川地震發(fā)生后，中國的網(wǎng)站和報紙紛紛報道震前動物出現(xiàn)的奇怪反應(yīng)。最不尋常的報道來自地震中受災(zāi)的綿竹。地震前，數(shù)千只蟾蜍涌向街頭，這種現(xiàn)象非常奇怪，當?shù)氐碾娨曅侣勥€進行過報導(dǎo)。

5月10日，也就是地震前兩天，一位新聞主播在電視節(jié)目中問道，這是不是要發(fā)生自然災(zāi)害的征兆呢?現(xiàn)在這個視頻在YouTube上可以看到。

新加坡國立大學的蟾蜍專家大衛(wèi)·比克福德說，“這個視頻非常非常的奇怪，不過他說這很可能是一種奇特的巧合?！彼f，蟾蜍有時會往繁殖地大批遷移，或是在有大量幼蟾同時孵化出來后成群出現(xiàn)。不過，他承認，“青蛙和蟾蜍都是通過聲音進行交流的，有些可能非常敏感，可以探測到大地的振動?！薄?/p>