Yu Guoqing

2023 is the year when Turkish presidential and parliamentary election coincides with the centennial of the founding of modern Türkiye. After the May 14 primary election and the May 28 second round， Erdogan narrowly missed a downfall and was re-elected as President. Looking ahead， Türkiyes basic political system is expected to remain stable， while there will be some new changes in its domestic political governance， economic policy and foreign policy.

Reasons Behind Erdogans Re-election

Türkiye underwent a major political reform after the 2017 constitutional referendum when it established presidential system replacing the parliamentary system. In recent years， there has been much controversy in Türkiye over the reform， and the US-led Western countries have also criticized Erdogans nationalistic policies. These have given unprecedented significance to the general election in May this year. Before the election， it was generally predicted that Erdogan and the opposition Republican Peoples Party leader Kemal K?l??daro?lu would be in a neck-and-neck rivalry and the winner will secure his place by a narrow margin. Erdogan did not secure half the votes in the first round， entailing a second round of voting. On May 28， Erdogan won out with 52.18% of the vote， and there are several drivers behind his victory.

First， the Justice and Development Party （AKP） enjoys the advantage of being in power for long over the opposition party. Erdogan made full use of national resources， media， favorable electoral law and others as the incumbent President when competing with his opponents. Turkish state television spent most time putting on air the achievements of Erdogan and his party， and dedicated most of its promotion time to Erdogan and his AKP during the election.

Second， the opposition lacks politicians of sufficient weight to stand up against Erdogan. In this election， Erdogans major opponent is the Republican Peoples Party leader K?l??daro?lu， who is 74 years of age， and described as “a bureaucrat who lacks charisma or eloquence”.

Third， the further division among the opposition parties after the first round of voting has strengthened Erdogans hand. Sinan O?an， who came third in the first round was named by media the “kingmaker” of the election. As the leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party， O?an pledged his endorsement of Erdogan ahead of the second round of voting， which was seen as one of the key factors in Erdogans second-round victory.

Fourth， the Turkish public and voters generally recognize the achievements Erdogan has made in his tenure. In his 20 years in power， first as Prime Minister and then President， Erdogan has reshaped Türkiyes political landscape and its role in global affairs. Under his helm， Türkiye becomes a regional power with its overall strength significantly enhanced， and its composite economic strength ranks among the top 20 in the world. Türkiyes Daily Sabah believes that， Türkiye has become a regional economic power and a global political power.

The Challenges Facing Türkiyes New Government

Although Erdogan won the re-election as he wished， the victory was against the background where Türkiye has experienced economic turbulence in recent years， aggravated by the worst earthquake in decades in early 2023. Erdogan is bound to face many challenges.

I.Political Challenges Remain Severe

Although Erdogan won out at last， there has always been controversy in Türkiye over the election and the presidential system he himself pushed for， which accounts for a major challenge for Erdogan after the re-election. The opposition sees presidential system as a threat to democracy and human rights as it weakens parliament， concentrates unproportionate power in the hands of the President， undermines the authority of local governments， sabotage judiciary organ， and leads to an increase of migration and capital flight. In the context of the ruling partys identity politics， the AKP amended the constitution， reorganized the government， and weakened the political influence of the military during its reign， which “severely squeezed the political space of the opposition parties and gradually erodes the space for their political participation.”

In this election， opposition parties across the ideological spectrum were united by the common goal of anti-Erdoganism， which directly resulted in less than 50% of the vote for Erdogan in the first round. As opposition parties have been working to cripple Presidents power， Erdogan in his new term will have to face up to the task of persuading the parliament and boosting public confidence in the fundamental political system of Türkiye， reducing political strife， and putting national development over political party competition， in order to promote stability and development in Türkiye.

II.Economic Growth Remains an Arduous Task

Since coming to office in 2002， the AKP-led Turkish government has achieved remarkable economic growth through credit expansion and foreign investment attraction. Yet since the currency crisis in 2018， Türkiye has experienced contracted economic growth and runaway food price， resulting in high debt in private sector， high inflation， and high unemployment. Right now Türkiyes economy faces two serious problems. First， the trade deficit in foreign trade has been in large volume for a long time， with the figure in 2022 reaching $109.539 billion US dollars， an increase of 137% year on year. Second， due to long-term dependence on foreign funds for economic development， the scale of foreign debt is magnificent， with the total foreign debt of the central government reaching 2.12 trillion lira by the end of 2022. The problems lead to Türkiyes increased dependence on foreign currency and foreign capital， which adds to the instability of its capital market. Had a major event occurred， Turkish currency is prone to spill over and foreign capital will retreat. Under the presidential system， Turkish President has the power to appoint central bank governor. In 2019， after the Erdogan government dismissed four insubordinate central bank governors in succession， it pursued anti-marketized and unconventional low interest rate. In this context， the new Erdogan government must think first and foremost how to bring Türkiye out of the current economic predicament.

III.Post-earthquake Reconstruction and Livelihood Issues Need to be Addressed Urgently

Earthquake reconstruction is also a tough issue for Erdogan to face. The massive earthquake that struck southeastern Türkiye on February 6， 2023 is one of the most destructive in the countrys history， taking more than 50，000 lives， injuring more than 100，000 people and affecting 9.1 million more， one-tenth of the total population. Over the past two decades， the Turkish government has collected more than $4.6 billion US dollars of “earthquake taxes”， and the Erdogan government even raised the tax rate from 7.5% to 10% in 2021. That made Turkish public think that their government was prepared for a major earthquake， only to find it untrue. As the failure to respond properly to the earthquake has exposed the deficiencies in governance and administration of the Erdogan government， the new government needs to address as a priority the political and economic damage on the ruling party brought by the poor post-disaster response.

The Future Domestic and Foreign Policy Direction of Erdogans Government

Erdogans eventual re-election shows that there is hope for continuity in the current Turkish national political system. In the short term， the AKP won a majority of seats in this election， and the presidential system will not be cast off in the foreseeable term of government. In the long run， it remains to be seen whether the Parliament will be able to exert a substantial check on Presidents power. In general， the future domestic and foreign policies of the Erdogan government can be roughly summarized in the following three aspects.

I. Türkiyes Basic Political System is Expected to Remain Stable

In this election the ruling and opposition parties center on the presidential system. Even though it ended up with the AKP in power and continuity with the presidential system， it will be unavoidable for the government to have communications， or more， frictions with the parliament when it comes to governance and the introduction of specific economic policies.

Since the AKP came to power， there has been a huge debate in Türkiye about whether democratization has been reversed. In the early days of Erdogans rule， the AKP pushed forward with democratic reform with an aim for the membership of the European Union， during which its democratic and economic achievements facilitated Türkiye to manage to launch membership negotiations with the EU， thus becoming a reform model for Islamic countries.

The ruling AKP and the government of Türkiye have to face up to the real problems when exploring the path of national governance， which tests the political and governance wisdom of the new government after coming to power. Shortly after the election， Erdogan quickly reshuffled his government. On June 3， 2023， Erdogan took the oath of office in Ankara. He announced the list of new cabinet members， replacing almost all except the Ministers of health and culture， showing his determination to improve efficiency through administrative reform under the premise of a stable presidential system.

II. The New Government is Expected to Introduce New Economic Policies

The domestic economic and social problems exposed in recent years have forced Erdogan to take stronger measures after his re-election to alter the not rosy expectations for the future. On June 4， he appointed Mehmet ?im?ek， the former Minister of Economy and an internationally renowned banker， as Minister of Treasury and Finance. Meanwhile he appointed Hafize Gaye Erkan， a former bank executive in the US， as the Central Bank Governor， making her the first Turkish female in such capacity. Erdogans openness to appoint to his economic agencies and lend his ears to experts who are in disagreement with him may signal a shift in his economic policy.

After the formation of the new government， Erdogan lost no time in releasing good news. On June 5， official data showed that the annual inflation rate dropped to 39.59% in May. On June 22， the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Türkiye announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by 650 basis points to 15%， the first of such increase since March 2021. In the future， the new government needs to take more proactive measures to show the promising outlook of economy and improve the living conditions of people in the earthquake-hit areas as soon as possible.

III. Steady Changes in Foreign Policy to Expect

Türkiyes foreign policy after the election has attracted attention worldwide， due to the fact that Türkiye under the leadership of Erdogan exercises unique Turkish-style foreign policy that highlights Türkiyes important geopolitical role and influence.

First， balanced diplomacy is expected to continue. Under the AKP government， Türkiye pursues its own interests first and foremost and adopts a balanced foreign policy when dealing with major powers. On the one hand， Türkiye often emphasizes its NATO membership， showcasing its role and status as a Middle Eastern country in the NATO system. On the other hand， Türkiye also tries to stay away from its dependence on the US and the West and gradually adopts “Look East” policy. Although Türkiye and the US-led West are in tension from time to time， the relation shuns from breaking. Türkiye is the only NATO member in the Middle East and the Islamic world， and Erdogan has made full use of this irreplaceable bridging role. For example， on the issue of the Ukraine crisis， Türkiyes balanced diplomacy particularly stands out， as it has skillfully acted as a mediator by using its friendly relations with both Russia and Ukraine and thus expanded its international influence. The Erdogan government has pursued a balanced foreign policy that puts national interests first and shows flexibility in relations with major powers and regional states， which will most likely continue in his new term.

The second is to play a key role in the world. In recent years， Türkiye has repeatedly played a key role in international relations. For example， on the issue of the Ukraine crisis， Türkiye has mediated the positions of all parties at several critical moments in order to ensure the security of the Black Sea food transport channel between Russia and Ukraine. That is also the case with the Middle East issue. On Syria， Türkiye can hold sway over many opposition groups in Syria， making it a key player in solving the Syrian issue. And following the general trend of detente in the Middle East， Türkiye has actively improved relations and expanded cooperation with Egypt， Israel and other Middle Eastern countries. On 13 April 2023， the Foreign Ministers of Türkiye and Egypt announced that they have agreed to improve bilateral relations and restore it to the ambassadorial level. It can be expected that after Erdogans re-election， Türkiye will further strengthen its influence and soft power in the Islamic world， and strive to be a banner holder in the Islamic world and a mediator in regional conflicts.

In dealing with its relations with Europe， Türkiye often uses its key position as the largest refugee host country in the world to pressure European countries in order to meet its own political goals and economic interests. Currently Türkiye is home to more than 4.1 million refugees， including about 3.76 million from Syria. After Erdogans re-election， the refugee issue will continue to be a bargain chip for Türkiye to deal with EU countries. Since April 2023， the Turkish-Syrian border situation has intensified again. In order to attack and drive out the Kurdish along the border， Türkiye has tried to settle Syrian refugees stranded in Türkiye in northern Syria near the border， for which Türkiye asked European countries and the international community for more resettlement compensation. Whether Türkiye will get what it wants is a window into its key role.

In short， Erdogans re-election has further consolidated his position in Türkiye and within the AKP. Erdogan and the AKPs strong hold in the legislative， executive， and public media area is expected to continue. However， it is difficult to solve some deep-seated political， social and economic problems in Türkiye overnight， and it remains to be seen whether Erdogans new “100-year Journey” can start smoothly.

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Yu Guoqing is Researcher at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences