胡健斌

摘 要：針對汽車行業(yè)對質(zhì)量風險普遍依托定性評價和考核管理，缺乏定量評估和動態(tài)監(jiān)測的有效方法的痛點，開展供應鏈質(zhì)量風險管控的研究?；诠滄溕瞎?jié)點企業(yè)運營過程的質(zhì)量風險具有相關(guān)性、積累性和傳遞性等特點，形成一套集成風險定義、采集、分析、評估、預警、應對為一體的風險定向監(jiān)測與準確預警的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)，包括質(zhì)量風險指標體系、質(zhì)量風險算法模型、風險預警法則;整合和挖掘供應鏈“產(chǎn)”、“銷”、“存”全過程的內(nèi)外部運行數(shù)據(jù)，建立供應鏈風險智能分析預測模型，開發(fā)汽車供應鏈質(zhì)量風險智能預警系統(tǒng)，利用信息技術(shù)實現(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)采集、分析計算、評估匹配、預警應對的自動化智能監(jiān)測，突破原有的傳統(tǒng)預警技術(shù)的局限，實現(xiàn)供應鏈質(zhì)量風險數(shù)據(jù)定量分析與趨勢預判，提高整車企業(yè)和零部件制造業(yè)的風險管控能力，降低質(zhì)量損失，為汽車行業(yè)的質(zhì)量風險管控提供經(jīng)驗借鑒。

關(guān)鍵詞：汽車供應鏈 風險預測模型 風險控制方法集 風險定向監(jiān)測 智能預警系統(tǒng)大數(shù)據(jù)

Development and Application of Intelligent Early Warning System for Quality Risk in Automobile Supply Chain

Hu Jianbin

Abstract：Aiming at the pain points that the automobile industry generally relies on qualitative evaluation and assessment and management of quality risks， and lacks effective methods for quantitative assessment and dynamic monitoring， research on supply chain quality risk management and control is carried out. Based on the characteristics of relevance， accumulation and transferability of quality risks in the operation process of node enterprises in the supply chain， a set of integrated risk definition， collection， analysis， evaluation， early warning， and response is formed to form a set of risk-oriented monitoring and accurate early warning. Key technologies include quality risk index system， quality risk algorithm model， and risk warning rules. The article integrates and mines the internal and external operating data of the entire supply chain "production"， "sales" and "storage"， and establishes a supply chain risk intelligent analysis and prediction model to develop an intelligent early warning system for quality risk in the automotive supply chain， and uses information technology to realize automatic intelligent monitoring of data collection， analysis and calculation， assessment matching， and early warning response， breaking through the limitations of the original traditional early warning technology， and realizing quantitative analysis and analysis of supply chain quality risk data， so as to improve the risk management and control capabilities of vehicle companies and parts manufacturing， reduce quality losses， and provide experience and reference for quality risk management and control in the automotive industry.

Key words：automotive supply chain， risk prediction model， risk control method set， risk-oriented monitoring， intelligent early warning system big data

在經(jīng)濟全球化的今天，汽車行業(yè)市場競爭激烈，而汽車整車零部件成本占到整車成本近85%，供應鏈的競爭力成為了主機廠的核心競爭優(yōu)勢，正如著名供應鏈管理專家馬丁·克里斯托弗曾說：“市場上只有供應鏈而沒有企業(yè)，21世紀的競爭不是企業(yè)和企業(yè)之間的競爭，而是供應鏈與供應鏈之間的競爭”。每個主機廠均擁有著龐大的供應鏈體系，供應鏈在主機廠經(jīng)營活動中的作用及影響越來越大，零部件質(zhì)量成為影響整車質(zhì)量水平的關(guān)鍵因素。汽車供應鏈鏈上節(jié)點企業(yè)運營過程的不確定質(zhì)量風險，會對企業(yè)獲利、生存及發(fā)展產(chǎn)生影響。由于汽車制造業(yè)典型的供應鏈式結(jié)構(gòu)使得供應鏈鏈上節(jié)點企業(yè)的質(zhì)量風險具有相關(guān)性、積累性和傳遞性等特點，因此汽車供應鏈風險不僅指產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量本身，更指供應商的制造能力、管理水平、變更控制等風險，而國內(nèi)外汽車領(lǐng)域?qū)溬|(zhì)量風險的研究集中在某個特定風險或供應鏈管理過程的某個階段，普遍依托定性評價和考核管理，缺乏定量評估和動態(tài)監(jiān)測的有效方法，對供應鏈質(zhì)量風險的綜合研究較少，如何有效控制供應鏈的質(zhì)量風險，確保產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量穩(wěn)定輸出，成為整車企業(yè)共同關(guān)注的課題。