Dulyapaween Kronsaeng 黃怡哲

不久前，中國(guó)審議通過(guò)了“十四五”發(fā)展規(guī)劃，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題研究專(zhuān)家、泰國(guó)法政大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院阿順詩(shī)·帕尼察叁副教授在接受本刊記者專(zhuān)訪(fǎng)時(shí)表示，中國(guó)“十四五”規(guī)劃為其國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展遠(yuǎn)景制定了目標(biāo)和方向。她認(rèn)為此次“十四五”規(guī)劃也可視為“經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定規(guī)劃”，中國(guó)追求的更多是穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，尤其是從技術(shù)安全、食品安全、公共衛(wèi)生安全三方面推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，而不是單純追求經(jīng)濟(jì)高增速。

以科技自立自強(qiáng)支撐新發(fā)展格局

阿順詩(shī)副教授分析說(shuō)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的制定要“穩(wěn)”，新冠肺炎疫情沖擊、中美貿(mào)易摩擦等外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提升，可能影響中國(guó)未來(lái)長(zhǎng)期的發(fā)展。為此，中國(guó)將更多地依托內(nèi)需，減少對(duì)外依賴(lài)，尤其是核心技術(shù)。

“過(guò)去，依賴(lài)國(guó)外技術(shù)是中國(guó)科技業(yè)的軟肋，同時(shí)還伴隨著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。例如，半導(dǎo)體等關(guān)鍵核心技術(shù)遭遇瓶頸，使中國(guó)對(duì)此體會(huì)更為深刻。中國(guó)從中汲取教訓(xùn)，將更注重基礎(chǔ)技術(shù)研發(fā)，通過(guò)制定《中國(guó)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)2035》，提出了到2035年成為全球技術(shù)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的目標(biāo)?！卑㈨樤?shī)副教授說(shuō)。

技術(shù)安全方面，在“十四五”規(guī)劃中，除了研發(fā)支出將年增7%之外，中國(guó)瞄準(zhǔn)7大前沿領(lǐng)域，實(shí)現(xiàn)科技高水平自立自強(qiáng)，包括：新一代人工智能、量子信息、腦科學(xué)與類(lèi)腦研究、集成電路、基因與生物技術(shù)、臨床醫(yī)學(xué)與健康、深空深地深海和極地探測(cè)。

“中國(guó)將加強(qiáng)面向國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略需求的基礎(chǔ)前沿和高新技術(shù)研究，強(qiáng)化國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略科技力量，一旦取得成功，中國(guó)將成為世界科技強(qiáng)國(guó)，引領(lǐng)世界科技潮流?！卑㈨樤?shī)副教授說(shuō)。

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“雙循環(huán)”時(shí)代開(kāi)啟

突如其來(lái)的新冠肺炎疫情，讓中國(guó)對(duì)食品和健康安全的關(guān)注度大幅提升，并持續(xù)出臺(tái)一系列扶持農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的政策措施，包括進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大糧食種植面積。即使部分農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)成本高于進(jìn)口，但中國(guó)仍選擇依靠自己的力量養(yǎng)活14億人口，讓“中國(guó)飯碗”更“瓷實(shí)”。保障國(guó)內(nèi)糧食安全，不論發(fā)生什么，中國(guó)都無(wú)需懼怕外部環(huán)境的壓力，并加快構(gòu)建國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)際雙循環(huán)相互促進(jìn)的新發(fā)展格局。

“新冠肺炎疫情危機(jī)和國(guó)外壓力升溫，促使中國(guó)更加注重經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行求‘穩(wěn)——科技自立自強(qiáng)，國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)更加強(qiáng)勁，國(guó)民收入提高，新一代中產(chǎn)階級(jí)消費(fèi)崛起，掀起新的消費(fèi)浪潮?！卑㈨樤?shī)副教授說(shuō)，“但這并不意味著中國(guó)從此就對(duì)外關(guān)上了大門(mén)，相反，中國(guó)開(kāi)放的大門(mén)只會(huì)越開(kāi)越大，將從最大出口國(guó)變成最大進(jìn)口國(guó)。中國(guó)擁有巨大的消費(fèi)群體，通過(guò)實(shí)施擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需戰(zhàn)略拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，對(duì)各國(guó)都有著巨大的吸引力，為此，世界的繁榮也需要中國(guó)。例如，泰國(guó)旅游收入高度依賴(lài)中國(guó)游客，每年泰國(guó)接待中國(guó)游客達(dá)1000萬(wàn)人次?！?/p>

綜上所述，阿順詩(shī)副教授認(rèn)為，如何為更好地適應(yīng)時(shí)代的發(fā)展和進(jìn)步，抓住中國(guó)機(jī)遇，成為泰國(guó)當(dāng)下面臨的巨大挑戰(zhàn);同時(shí)要學(xué)會(huì)分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)平衡發(fā)展。

她指出，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)跨越式增長(zhǎng)，無(wú)疑給競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手或包括泰國(guó)在內(nèi)的制造商帶來(lái)壓力。但無(wú)需過(guò)于擔(dān)憂(yōu)，應(yīng)該將壓力轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閯?dòng)力，以更好地實(shí)現(xiàn)自我調(diào)整，從中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)新格局中尋找機(jī)遇。其中，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力不可忽視，例如，泰國(guó)旅游業(yè)要由數(shù)量型向質(zhì)量型轉(zhuǎn)變，深挖更注重健康旅游的高端游客群體，關(guān)注老年旅游這一具有潛力的藍(lán)海市場(chǎng)，也稱(chēng)為“銀發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)”。

“此外，泰國(guó)在中國(guó)高度重視的清潔能源方面也存在無(wú)限的合作空間，這與泰國(guó)BCG經(jīng)濟(jì)新模式（包括生物經(jīng)濟(jì)、循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)和綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)）相契合。如果中泰兩國(guó)持續(xù)保持良好關(guān)系，泰國(guó)可在多個(gè)潛力領(lǐng)域與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)新格局尋求對(duì)接，深化合作實(shí)現(xiàn)雙方互利共贏?！卑㈨樤?shī)副教授補(bǔ)充道。

·來(lái)源：《TAP東盟博覽》

Not long ago， China deliberated and passed the 14th Five-Year Plan. In the exclusive interview with the reporter from Thailand-ASEAN Panorama， Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn， Expert on Chinas Economy and Associate Professor of Faculty of Economics of Thammasat University said that the 14th Five-Year Plan sets clear goals and directions for Chinas economic development. She believes that the Plan is also a move to stabilize the economy. Instead of fast economic growth， China pursues stable development， especially economic stability boosted by technical safety， food safety and public health safety.

Support new development pattern with science and technology

Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn said that Chinas economic policy formulation should be “stable”， as the impact of the COVID-19， trade friction between China and the US， and other external risks may affect Chinas long-term development in the future. To this end， China will rely more on domestic demand and less on external sources， especially core technologies

“Relying on foreign technology has always been a weakness of Chinas science and technology industry and it was often accompanied by risks， especially in core technologies like semiconductor. Drawing lessons from this， China is determined to focus more on the R&D of basic technology. Through formulating China Standards 2035， China has put forward the goal of becoming a global technology power by 2035，” said Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn.

In technical safety， it is clear in the 14th Five-Year Plan that in addition to a 7% increase in the annual expenditure of R&D， China aims at seven leading-edge areas to achieve high-level scientific and technological self-reliance， including the new generation of artificial intelligence， quantum information， brain science and brain-like intelligent technology， integrated circuit， gene and biotechnology， clinical medicine and health， deep space， deep earth， deep sea and polar exploration.

“China will strengthen the basic frontier and high-tech research following national strategies and enhance the national scientific and technological strength. Once successful， it will become the new global science and technology power， leading the development trend，” said Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn.

China ushers in the era of economic dual circulation development

The outbreak of the COVID-19 has drawn peoples attention to food and health safety. A series of policies and measures to support agricultural production have been launched in China， including enlarging the area of grain cultivation. Although the cost of producing some agricultural products is higher than that of imports， China still chooses to support the 1.4 billion people on its own， making its “rice bowl” more “solid”. Ensuring domestic food security is of great importance. No matter what happens， China will withstand any pressure from the international environment and concentrate on speeding up the construction of the dual circulation development pattern， with domestic and international development reinforcing each other.

“Uncertainty brought by the COVID-19 and pressure from abroad have forced China to stabilize its domestic economic development， for example， being independent in science and technology， pursuing stronger domestic economic development， increasing national income， cultivating a new generation of middle class， and boosting domestic consumption. However， it does not mean that China has closed its door to the outside world. On the contrary， China will open its door even wider， turning to the largest importer from the largest exporter. China has a large consumer base. Through expanding domestic demand to promote economic development， its attraction to foreign countries will be even greater. Therefore， the prosperity of the world is inseparable from China. Take Thailand as an example， its tourism revenue is highly dependent on China， with 10 million of Chinese tourists coming every year.”

To sum up， Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn believes that to better conform to the development trend and seize the opportunities from China， Thailand needs to adjust itself， dispersing risks， and achieve balanced economic development.

She pointed out that Chinas leapfrog economic development undoubtedly brings pressure to competitors and manufacturers such as Thailand. Instead of worrying， Thailand should turn the pressure into a driving force， so as? to better adjust itself and seek opportunities from Chinas new economic development pattern.? For example， if Thailand wishes to transform its quantity-oriented tourism industry into quality-oriented， the high-end tourists who lay stress on health tourism should not be ignored. The senior tourism is also a potential market worth exploring.

“In addition， Thailand has unlimited space for cooperation with China in clean energy. It not only coincides with Thailands Bio-Circular-Green Economic Model or BCG， but also is highly valued by China. If China and Thailand continue to maintain good relations， Thailand can seek more cooperation with China in various potential areas， achieving mutual benefit and win-win results，” said Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn.

· Source： Thailand-ASEAN Panorama

· Editor in Charge： Li Min