“Human inventiveness… has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles，” lamented Le Petit Journal， a French newspaper， in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages， held the following July. The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam， petrol， electricity， compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km （78-mile） race， which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.

The big end

But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead. In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line， partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Todays electric cars， powered by lithium-ion batteries， can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1，000km on a single charge. UBS optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025， up from 1% today. Others have more modest forecasts， but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1，000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are tightening， too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries， saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.

The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.

To gauge what lies ahead， think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles， with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia， along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of economic development and the expansion of the middle class， in post-war America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road， almost all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle， Americas car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in history.

But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany. Compared with existing vehicles， electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong， the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While todays carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen workforces， new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling， but low-margin， mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.

Assuming， of course， that people want to own cars at all. Electric propulsion， along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology， could mean that ownership is largely replaced， by “transport as a service”， in which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme estimates， that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of shared， self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks （up to 24% of the area in some places） with new housing， and let people commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.

Even without a shift to safe， self-driving vehicles， electric propulsion will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones， according to Americas National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local air pollution will fall， too. The World Health Organisation says that it is the single largest environmental health risk， with outdoor air pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car emissions kill 53，000 Americans each year， against 34，000 who die in traffic accidents.

Autos and autocracies

And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America is on the roads， and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless oil in the ground， there will be a dearth of new investment， especially in new， high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast， producers such as Saudi Arabia， with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply， will be under pressure to get pumping before it is too late： the Middle East will still matter， but a lot less than it did. Although there will still be a market for natural gas， which will help generate power for all those electric cars， volatile oil prices will strain countries that depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When volumes fall， the adjustment will be fraught， particularly where the struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse， the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.

Meanwhile， a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from $4，000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14，000. Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars： utilities want giant batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia？ Not exactly， because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion batteries from cars can be reused in power grids， and then recycled.

The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption， policymakers will need to help， by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations， and the recycling of batteries， rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.

Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways， just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.

1893年12月，法國(guó)《小日?qǐng)?bào)》曾感嘆道：“以人類(lèi)的創(chuàng)造力……仍未找到可以取代馬匹驅(qū)動(dòng)車(chē)輛的機(jī)械方式?！钡诙?月舉辦的巴黎至魯昂無(wú)馬馬車(chē)賽算是對(duì)這一問(wèn)題的回應(yīng)。報(bào)名參賽的102輛車(chē)各有特色，有的靠蒸汽驅(qū)動(dòng)，有的靠汽油驅(qū)動(dòng)，有的靠電力驅(qū)動(dòng)，有的靠壓縮空氣驅(qū)動(dòng)，還有的靠液壓裝置驅(qū)動(dòng)。只有21輛車(chē)取得了參加126公里（78英里）正式比賽的資格，比賽吸引了大批觀眾。內(nèi)燃機(jī)成為當(dāng)之無(wú)愧的贏家。在接下來(lái)的一個(gè)世紀(jì)，它將為工業(yè)提供動(dòng)力，并改變世界。

內(nèi)燃機(jī)的大限

但如今內(nèi)燃機(jī)大限將至。電池技術(shù)的快速進(jìn)步更利于電動(dòng)機(jī)的發(fā)展。1894年巴黎的那場(chǎng)比賽中，沒(méi)有一輛電力驅(qū)動(dòng)的車(chē)成功踏上正賽的起跑線(xiàn)，部分原因在于那些車(chē)大約每30公里就需要有個(gè)電池更換站更換電池。當(dāng)今的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)采用鋰離子電池，性能優(yōu)異得多。雪佛蘭博爾特續(xù)航可達(dá)383公里;特斯拉車(chē)迷最近駕駛Model S，一次充電就跑了1000多公里。瑞銀集團(tuán)樂(lè)觀預(yù)測(cè)，到2025年，在全球汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售市場(chǎng)上，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)占比將從目前的1%升至14%。其他機(jī)構(gòu)更為謹(jǐn)慎，但也在加緊調(diào)高預(yù)測(cè)比例，因?yàn)殡姵貎r(jià)格越發(fā)便宜且性能越發(fā)優(yōu)異——每千瓦時(shí)的成本已從2010年的1000美元降至目前的130—200美元。相關(guān)監(jiān)管也在收緊。不斷有國(guó)家宣布禁售燃油車(chē)，英國(guó)上月也加入了這一行列。英國(guó)政府表態(tài)，到2050年所有新車(chē)必須實(shí)現(xiàn)零排放。

從燃料和活塞向電池和電動(dòng)機(jī)的轉(zhuǎn)變未必需要那么長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。內(nèi)燃機(jī)第一波臨終哀鳴已經(jīng)回蕩在世界各個(gè)角落，而隨之產(chǎn)生的諸多變化都將為世人所樂(lè)見(jiàn)。

要看清未來(lái)的形勢(shì)，需要思考內(nèi)燃機(jī)如何塑造了現(xiàn)代生活。發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家因機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)而重建，投入巨資建設(shè)道路交通網(wǎng)，開(kāi)發(fā)郊區(qū)，建立大型購(gòu)物中心和汽車(chē)餐廳。大約85%的美國(guó)職工開(kāi)車(chē)上下班。在戰(zhàn)后的美國(guó)和世界其他地方，汽車(chē)制造業(yè)也促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，擴(kuò)大了中產(chǎn)階級(jí)的規(guī)模。如今全世界汽車(chē)保有量約為10億輛，路上行駛的汽車(chē)幾乎都由化石燃料驅(qū)動(dòng)。盡管美國(guó)的轎車(chē)和貨車(chē)引擎大多處在閑置狀態(tài)，但它們所能產(chǎn)生的能量是發(fā)電廠的10倍。內(nèi)燃機(jī)是歷史上最強(qiáng)大的引擎。

但是電氣化使汽車(chē)工業(yè)陷入了混亂。汽車(chē)工業(yè)最好的品牌都建立在它們深厚的工程技術(shù)積淀上，特別是在德國(guó)。和目前的燃油汽車(chē)相比，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)結(jié)構(gòu)更簡(jiǎn)單，部件也更少。它們就好比裝上輪子的計(jì)算機(jī)。這意味著需要的組裝人手更少，需要專(zhuān)業(yè)供應(yīng)商提供的配套系統(tǒng)也更少。不生產(chǎn)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的制造廠的工人擔(dān)憂(yōu)自己可能面臨被炒魷魚(yú)的命運(yùn)。故障少了，維修和配件市場(chǎng)會(huì)隨之萎縮。工廠老舊，員工隊(duì)伍臃腫，這樣的歷史包袱令今天的汽車(chē)制造商不堪重負(fù)，而新入行者將輕裝上陣。高端品牌依靠款式設(shè)計(jì)和駕駛性能或許還能夠屹立不倒，但面向大眾市場(chǎng)的低利潤(rùn)汽車(chē)制造商將不得不把競(jìng)爭(zhēng)重心放在成本上。

當(dāng)然，這樣的情況是假設(shè)人們都想擁有自己的車(chē)。電力驅(qū)動(dòng)，加之打車(chē)軟件和自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)，可能意味著人們很大程度上不再需要買(mǎi)車(chē)，而代之以享受“交通服務(wù)”，有成群結(jié)隊(duì)的車(chē)輛會(huì)按需提供搭乘服務(wù)。最糟糕的估計(jì)是，這可能讓汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)縮水90%。大量共享自動(dòng)駕駛電動(dòng)汽車(chē)涌現(xiàn)，會(huì)讓城市縮小停車(chē)場(chǎng)占地（在某些地方，停車(chē)場(chǎng)占地達(dá)24%），轉(zhuǎn)而將這些占地用于建筑新的住房，這還可以讓通勤路途遙遠(yuǎn)的人在途中打個(gè)盹兒——城市郊區(qū)化的趨勢(shì)將發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)。

即使無(wú)法改用安全的自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)，電力驅(qū)動(dòng)也會(huì)帶來(lái)巨大的環(huán)境和健康益處。相比各個(gè)引擎單燒燃料，通過(guò)中心電站為汽車(chē)電池充電，能源利用率會(huì)更高。根據(jù)美國(guó)國(guó)家資源保護(hù)委員會(huì)的測(cè)算，與燃油汽車(chē)相比，目前的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)可以減少54%的碳排放量。隨著電動(dòng)汽車(chē)能效提高，電網(wǎng)發(fā)電更加清潔，這一數(shù)字還會(huì)上升。當(dāng)?shù)氐目諝馕廴緺顩r也會(huì)改善。世界衛(wèi)生組織表示，戶(hù)外空氣污染每年導(dǎo)致370萬(wàn)人死亡，這是危及健康最大的環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，每年因汽車(chē)尾氣死亡的美國(guó)人有5.3萬(wàn)之多，而死于交通事故的只有3.4萬(wàn)人。

汽車(chē)與獨(dú)裁

此外，還有石油的問(wèn)題。在美國(guó)，汽車(chē)消耗了大概三分之二的石油，提煉原油生產(chǎn)汽油和柴油的副產(chǎn)品則消耗了其余的相當(dāng)一部分。石油產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)于需求高峰何時(shí)到來(lái)意見(jiàn)不一。荷蘭皇家殼牌石油公司表示可能不會(huì)超過(guò)10年。在那一刻到來(lái)之前的很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，產(chǎn)業(yè)前景會(huì)使油價(jià)承擔(dān)重壓。因?yàn)闆](méi)有人想在地下囤積毫無(wú)價(jià)值的石油，所以新的投資會(huì)不足，尤其是對(duì)于北極這樣新開(kāi)發(fā)的高成本地區(qū)。相比之下，像沙特阿拉伯這樣的產(chǎn)油國(guó)，擁有大量可以廉價(jià)開(kāi)采的石油儲(chǔ)備，將面臨及時(shí)開(kāi)采以免為時(shí)過(guò)晚的壓力。中東地區(qū)仍將重要，但相比以前，其影響力會(huì)大大削弱。盡管天然氣仍會(huì)有市場(chǎng)，可幫助為所有那些電動(dòng)汽車(chē)供電，但對(duì)于那些依靠碳?xì)浠衔锸杖雭?lái)支撐國(guó)家財(cái)政的國(guó)家，波動(dòng)的油價(jià)會(huì)令它們掣肘。當(dāng)產(chǎn)量下降，調(diào)整將令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)，特別是在一些權(quán)力之爭(zhēng)長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)就是石油財(cái)富控制權(quán)之爭(zhēng)的地方。在像安哥拉和尼日利亞這樣的國(guó)家，石油經(jīng)常是一種詛咒，經(jīng)濟(jì)影響力的散播或許會(huì)帶來(lái)巨大的收益。

同時(shí)，對(duì)鋰的爭(zhēng)奪也在展開(kāi)。碳酸鋰的價(jià)格已經(jīng)從2011年的每噸4000美元升至如今的超過(guò)1.4萬(wàn)美元。電動(dòng)機(jī)必備的鈷和稀土元素的需求也在飆升。鋰不僅可以用于為汽車(chē)供電：電力公司希望在用電低谷時(shí)利用巨型電池存儲(chǔ)電能，在用電高峰時(shí)釋放電能。這一切是否會(huì)使富含鋰資源的智利成為新的沙特阿拉伯？未必，因?yàn)殡妱?dòng)車(chē)并不會(huì)消耗鋰，車(chē)上用過(guò)的鋰離子電池可以在電網(wǎng)中重復(fù)使用，然后回收再利用。

內(nèi)燃機(jī)曾經(jīng)大行其道，并且未來(lái)幾十年仍會(huì)主導(dǎo)水運(yùn)和空運(yùn)領(lǐng)域。但在陸上，電動(dòng)機(jī)很快會(huì)讓人們自由享受更廉價(jià)、清潔的便利出行。轉(zhuǎn)向電動(dòng)汽車(chē)會(huì)扭轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)達(dá)世界減少電力消耗的趨勢(shì)，所以政策制定者需要確保有足夠的發(fā)電能力加以推動(dòng)。他們可能需要為公共充電站的建設(shè)，以及電池、稀土發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)和其他“城市礦藏”的循環(huán)利用，推動(dòng)制定新的規(guī)則和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。他們還將不得不應(yīng)對(duì)舊工廠崗位取消帶來(lái)的社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩。

就像20世紀(jì)內(nèi)燃機(jī)驅(qū)動(dòng)的汽車(chē)那樣，21世紀(jì)的無(wú)人駕駛電動(dòng)車(chē)將會(huì)以深遠(yuǎn)且無(wú)法預(yù)知的方式讓這個(gè)世界變得更好。但前路坎坷，請(qǐng)系好安全帶。