菲爾·愛德華茲　李小雪

History is filled with examples of new inventions that supporters thought would be transformational—and then turned out to be minor fads. And these failures show how hard it is for inventors to anticipate society’s needs. It’s tough to predict what will change the world， because it’s tough to predict how the world will change.

Daylight motion pictures： “Witness the shows sitting in a fully lighted auditorium”

Imagine going to a movie theater where the entire auditorium is completely lit. Back in the 1910s， some people thought this was the future of film.

When movie theaters opened in the early 1900s， many people disliked the darkly lit auditoriums. In Minneapolis， one theater owner said he preferred full lighting “to look after the wants of women and children” and to avoid “eye fatigue.”

The idea caught on quickly and “daylight motion pictures” became a trend across the country. They worked through a combination of stronger projectors， darker screens， and wishful thinking. From New York， to Utah， to San Francisco， daylight projection brought relief from the “agitation” of dark movie theaters. Lobbying helped， too—in California， the statehouse passed a bill requiring theaters to be sufficiently lit so that patrons could see the features of other moviegoers.

But bright movie houses didn’t stick around for long. From the beginning， movie projectionists complained that well-lit movie theaters lacked the quality picture found in a dark theater. It didn’t help that the daylit pictures technology pushed by Samuel Rothafel and others were based more on hocus pocus than real innovation （Rothafel credited “a chemical substance found in the Dry Tortugas”）. Eventually， women and children felt safe in the movie theater， eye fatigue was overcome， and movies went dark for good.

Electrified water： “For the morning after... a sure cure for headaches”

In the early 1900s， “electrified water” was considered the next big thing. The idea was that people would run a charge through water and then—after they stopped—the liquid would acquire all sorts of wondrous new qualities.

As early as 1904， people pitched electrified water as a way of sterilizing and cleaning clothes without soap. A 1913 ad boasted that this “wonderful new invention applies electricity in a new way.” Electrified water was also in vogue for drinking and sprinkling on plants. In the 1920s， one physician suggested dipping your hands in electrified water to cure your hangover.

Electrified water wasn’t dangerous （the charge usually stopped before people came in contact with it）. But it also proved ineffective—it doesn’t work to wash your clothes without soap， and， for most practical circumstances， electrified water didn’t sterilize much at all.

The Fiske Reading Machine： “To render obsolete printing presses”

Rear Admiral Bradley Fiske was a celebrity inventor with many inventions and accomplishments to his name， like adding telescopic sights to ship guns. That might be why people thought the Fiske Reading Machine， invented in 1922， would be the next big thing in literature.

The basic idea was that books would be printed onto small pages in really tiny letters， and readers would hold modified magnifying glasses up to their eyes to read. As inconvenient as it sounds， Scientific American ran a piece listing all the advantages that Fiske machines would supposedly have over old-fashioned books：

Cheaper manufacturing

Better quality paper could be used and books would last longer

Less paper needed

Easy to send by mail （and cheap?。?/p>

More free space in your house

Smaller presses could be used

Everything could be cheaper because everything was easier to do

No more eye-glasses and spectacles

Poor people could finally afford to learn！

The invention got attention far and wide， from the New York Times to literary digests， and Popular Mechanics trumpeted tests that showed Fiske’s reader didn’t affect reading speed.

In the end， Fiske’s reading machine never took off. Mass-market paperbacks grew in the 1930s and 1940s， possibly negating one of the reading machine’s key advantages. Realistically， however， people probably just didn’t want to hold a magnifying glass up to their eyes for hours at a time.

The submarine tube： “Fish will play out before the human eye”

The submarine tube， invented by Charles Williamson in the 1910s， was once thought to be the future of underwater photography. The idea was simple： put a sphere underwater and connect it to the surface using a large waterproof tube.

Williamson originally wanted to use the device to find treasure and pearls underwater. Later， the device was touted as a way to see the ocean like never before. Submarine tube footage appeared in 20，000 Leagues Under the Sea， sketch artists used it to make amazing new drawings of undersea life， and one submarine tuber caught an epic picture of a diver right before he killed a shark.

But as wonderful as the submarine tube was， it didn’t end up being the future of undersea exploration. The advent of small， waterproof cameras in the 1940s made it more practical to send a diver down to capture ocean life instead of an entire tube. Jacques Cousteau’s work on SCUBA and underwater photography advanced the technology even further. With better options available， submarine tubes became a historical quirk.

The Helio-Motor： “Are steam and electricity doomed？”

Invented by Dr. William Calver in the 1900， the Helio-Motor was inspired by an age-old desire to recreate the legend of Archimedes’ heat ray—when the scientist supposedly lit a ship on fire using mirrors to concentrate sunlight.

Calver believed he had “solved the use of the sun’s rays” by concentrating sunlight using mirrors. In his Helio-Motor， flat mirrors moved according to the sun’s position in the sky， and then stored reflected heat in bricks or water. The goal was to heat the world and generate enough power to replace electricity. Commentators believed Calver’s Helio-Motor was “Archimedes’ Dream Realized，” and rich investors lined up to help the effort. Leland Stanford， founder of the university that bears his name， told Calver， “The steam engine made a great revolution and this will make another.”

Of course， the Helio-Motor didn’t become the next big thing in electricity because it was too hard to convert and store all that energy. Even if it worked well， it wasn’t better than the existing sources like coal.

But the Helio-Motor may not be dead yet. Thanks to more efficient ways for using that reflected heat， the Helio-Motor sounds a lot like modern-day concentrated solar power. It’s entirely possible that Calver’s invention could go from potentially world-changing， to unwanted device， to world-changing again. Part of the fun is figuring out what else might do the same.

新發(fā)明被支持者認(rèn)定會帶來變革，結(jié)果卻只是引發(fā)了小小風(fēng)潮。這類例子在歷史上比比皆是。這些失敗的案例表明，于發(fā)明者而言，預(yù)測社會需求是多么難。預(yù)測什么東西會改變世界是困難的，因?yàn)轭A(yù)測世界將如何改變本就是困難的。

日光電影：坐在亮如白晝的觀眾席里觀看演出

想象一下，去往一個觀眾席被完全照亮的電影院。在1910年代，有人認(rèn)為這就是電影的未來。

20世紀(jì)初電影院問世之際，許多人不喜歡里面光線昏暗的觀眾席。明尼阿波利斯市一位電影院老板就曾說，他更喜歡完全照明，“可以照顧婦女和兒童的需求”和避免“眼睛疲勞”。

這個想法快速風(fēng)靡，“日光電影”的浪潮席卷全美。這種電影之所以成氣候，靠的是功能更強(qiáng)的投影儀、更晦暗的熒幕，以及人們的一廂情愿。從紐約到猶他再到舊金山，日光投影緩解了昏暗影院帶給人們的“焦躁不安”。此外，游說也立了功。在加利福尼亞，州議會通過了一項(xiàng)法案，要求電影院必須足夠明亮，以便顧客可以看清其他觀影人員的容貌。

但是明亮影院并沒有流行很久。從一開始，電影放映員就抱怨這里不具備昏暗影院的高質(zhì)畫面。更何況，由塞繆爾·羅瑟費(fèi)爾和其他人推行的日光電影技術(shù)并不是基于真正的創(chuàng)新，不過是一種噱頭（羅瑟費(fèi)爾把它歸功于“在干龜島發(fā)現(xiàn)的一種化學(xué)物質(zhì)”）。最終，婦女和兒童坐在電影院有了安全感，人們克服了視覺疲勞，電影就一直在昏暗中放映了。

電化水：早晨之后……頭痛之靈藥

20世紀(jì)初，“電化水”被視為下一個流行物。其理念是：人們將水通電，然后斷電，這樣水會獲得諸多奇妙的新性能。

早在1904年，電化水就被宣傳成了一種可以不用肥皂清潔消毒衣物的水。1913年的一則廣告鼓吹說這一“奇妙新發(fā)明以新的方式用電”。當(dāng)時也很時興飲用電化水和用它噴灑植物。1920年代，一位醫(yī)生建議人們把手浸入電化水來治愈宿醉。

電化水沒有危險（在人們觸碰它之前電流就停止了）。但是它也并無效用——不能代替肥皂洗干凈衣服，而且在大多數(shù)現(xiàn)實(shí)情況下，它也不能殺菌消毒。

菲斯克閱讀機(jī)：讓印刷機(jī)落伍

海軍少將布拉德利·菲斯克是一位著名發(fā)明家，名下有眾多發(fā)明和成就，比如給艦炮加上望遠(yuǎn)式瞄準(zhǔn)鏡。也許正因如此，當(dāng)時的人們認(rèn)為1922年發(fā)明的費(fèi)斯克閱讀機(jī)將會在印刷出版中大行其道。

菲斯克閱讀機(jī)的基本構(gòu)想是，將極小的字母印刷在小開本書籍上，而讀者會手持改進(jìn)版放大鏡并推至眼前閱讀。雖然聽起來很不方便，可《科學(xué)美國人》登了一篇文章，羅列出所謂的菲斯克閱讀機(jī)超越老式書本的所有優(yōu)勢：

造價更低

紙張質(zhì)量更好，書籍保存更久

用紙更少

易于郵寄（且郵費(fèi)低！）

家里騰出更多空間

印刷機(jī)更小

一切更容易，則一切更便宜

省得戴眼鏡

窮人終于學(xué)得起了！

這項(xiàng)發(fā)明聲名遠(yuǎn)播。從《紐約時報》到各類文學(xué)文摘，再到《大眾機(jī)械》，這些媒體大肆宣揚(yáng)說，試驗(yàn)表明菲斯克閱讀機(jī)不會影響閱讀速度。

結(jié)果，菲斯克閱讀機(jī)根本沒有流行起來。大眾簡裝書在1930—1940年代數(shù)量增加，這也許否定了閱讀機(jī)的一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵優(yōu)勢。然而實(shí)際上，人們可能壓根就不想每次舉著放大鏡讀書，一讀就是幾個小時。

潛水管：魚兒嬉戲在眼前

潛水管由查爾斯·威廉森在1910年代發(fā)明，曾一度被視為水下攝影的未來。構(gòu)想倒也簡單：把一個球體置于水下，再用一根大防水管道將它與水面連接。

威廉森起初想用這個裝置尋找水下的寶藏和珍珠。后來，它就被吹捧成了一種前所未有的觀海儀器。電影《海底兩萬里》中出現(xiàn)過潛水管的片段，素描畫家利用它畫出了新奇美妙的海底生物圖，而且其中一根潛水管還捕捉到了驚心動魄般的場景：一名潛水員正要手刃鯊魚。

潛水管雖然絕妙，卻并未撐起海底探險的未來。1940年代，小型防水相機(jī)問世了，這樣一來，整根潛水管便不堪使用了，派潛水員下水捕捉海洋生物畫面反而更為實(shí)用。雅克·庫斯托在水肺潛水和水下攝影方面的工作進(jìn)一步推動了技術(shù)的發(fā)展。隨著更好的選擇出現(xiàn)，潛水管就淪為了一樁歷史奇聞。

太陽發(fā)動機(jī)：蒸汽與電力注定消亡？

太陽發(fā)動機(jī)由威廉·卡爾弗博士于1900年發(fā)明，其靈感來自阿基米德的“熱射線”傳說。據(jù)說阿基米德用多面鏡子聚集太陽光，將一艘船點(diǎn)燃。長久以來，人們都渴望能再現(xiàn)這個傳說。

卡爾弗認(rèn)為他用鏡子匯聚陽光，“解決了太陽光線利用問題”。在他的太陽發(fā)動機(jī)里，平面鏡根據(jù)太陽在天空中的位置移動，然后把反射的熱量儲存在磚塊或水中，其目標(biāo)是為世界供熱，產(chǎn)生足夠的能量替換電力。評論者認(rèn)為卡爾弗的太陽發(fā)動機(jī)“圓了阿基米德夢想”，而且富有的投資者爭相助力。斯坦福大學(xué)的創(chuàng)始人利蘭·斯坦福對卡爾弗說：“蒸汽機(jī)掀起了一場偉大革命，而太陽發(fā)動機(jī)將引發(fā)另一場偉大變革?！?/p>

當(dāng)然，太陽發(fā)動機(jī)并沒有成為電力行業(yè)的下一核心技術(shù)，因?yàn)閷?shí)在很難轉(zhuǎn)化和儲存全部太陽能。即便行得通，它也并不比煤炭這樣的現(xiàn)有能源優(yōu)越。

但是太陽發(fā)動機(jī)可能還未走向末路。幸虧有了更高效的利用反射熱能的種種辦法，太陽發(fā)動機(jī)聽起來很像現(xiàn)代的聚光太陽能熱發(fā)電技術(shù)。卡爾弗的發(fā)明雖然從有望變革世界跌落至無人問津，但它完全可能再次成為引發(fā)世界變革的技術(shù)。有沒有其他的發(fā)明也能翻盤？弄清楚這個問題會帶來不少樂趣。

（譯者為“《英語世界》杯”翻譯大賽獲獎選手）