編輯：賈朋群

“Nordhaus was in a position early on to think about climate change from a human-welfare and well-being perspective. Without him, there wouldn’t be such a subject of climate economics.”

“Nordhaus是早期從人類福祉的角度思考?xì)夂蜃兓膶W(xué)者，沒(méi)有他也不會(huì)有氣候經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)這樣的學(xué)科。”

——2018年諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)由兩位美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者William Nordhaus和Paul Romer分享，以表彰他們將氣候變化和技術(shù)改變?nèi)谌牒暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)之中，后者研究經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)作為一個(gè)整體的行為，而在討論氣候變化對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響時(shí)，整體視角是最佳的路徑。針對(duì)本次獲獎(jiǎng)?wù)?，德?guó)波茨坦氣候影響研究所主任Ottmar Edenhofer如此評(píng)論來(lái)自耶魯大學(xué)、創(chuàng)建了氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的獲獎(jiǎng)?wù)咧籒ordhaus的學(xué)術(shù)思想和影響。

“As a first step to demonstrating how this type of satellite measurements could be used, we chose nine sites in all – sites in the US, Europe, Africa and Australia. We took four satellite missions that observe soil moisture and we were able to measure the amount of water applied for irrigation between two consecutive soilmoisture measurements from space.”

“第一步要展示這類衛(wèi)星的觀測(cè)如何被利用，我們選擇位于美國(guó)、歐洲、非洲和澳大利亞的總計(jì)9個(gè)地點(diǎn)。我們利用4種可觀測(cè)土壤濕度衛(wèi)星，從空間測(cè)得兩次連續(xù)土壤濕度觀測(cè)之間灌溉的水供給量?！?/p>

——世界上約70%的淡水資源被用于農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉，這也是人類“干擾”全球水循環(huán)最主要的方式。意大利學(xué)者Luca Brocca領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的團(tuán)隊(duì)致力于用衛(wèi)星探測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)解釋農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉用水的細(xì)節(jié)，他對(duì)這項(xiàng)即將發(fā)表的研究成果進(jìn)行了如上表述。

“As glaciers thin around the world, they are modifying their landscapes dramatically. In the case of Taan Fjord, the result was a massive tsunami. The tsunami was triggered by a massive landslide in October 2015 that occurred above a glacier that had retreated dramatically in the late 20th century, We need to better understand the risk posed by these steep slopes in a changing climate. Our results call attention to an indirect effect of climate change that is increasing the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards near glaciated mountains.”

“當(dāng)全球冰川萎縮時(shí)，會(huì)大幅度改變其特征。對(duì)Taan Fjord冰川而言，帶來(lái)的結(jié)果就是巨大海嘯的發(fā)生。海嘯因2015年10月發(fā)生在20世紀(jì)后期嚴(yán)重退縮的冰川之上的大規(guī)模滑坡觸發(fā)，我們需要更好地認(rèn)識(shí)氣候變化中這些陡坡造成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我們的結(jié)果提示要關(guān)注氣候變化的間接影響，即冰川山區(qū)附近自然災(zāi)害的頻率和量級(jí)的增加?！?/p>

——?dú)夂蜃兓o冰川地區(qū)帶來(lái)的變化無(wú)疑是最大的。2015年阿拉斯加發(fā)生浪高達(dá)到200 m的海嘯，是有記載以來(lái)的最大記錄。這次海嘯因冰川融化引發(fā)，美國(guó)華盛頓大學(xué)地球科學(xué)助理教授Dan Shugar及其團(tuán)隊(duì)針對(duì)冰川消融帶來(lái)的災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)展開(kāi)研究并發(fā)表了研究結(jié)果。

“Clouds play a major role in the Earth's climate by transporting heat and moisture, reflecting and absorbing the sun's rays, trapping infrared heat rays and producing precipitation. But they can be as small as a few hundred meters, much tinier than a standard climate model grid resolution of 50 to 100 kilometers,so simulating them appropriately takes an enormous amount of computer power and time. But a lack of supercomputer power, or the wrong type, means that this is still a long way off. Meanwhile,the field has to cope with huge margins of error on issues related to changes in future rainfall and how cloud changes will amplify or counteract global warming from greenhouse gas emissions.”

“云通過(guò)傳輸熱量和水汽，反射和吸收太陽(yáng)輻射，吸收紅外熱輻射和產(chǎn)生降水，在地球氣候中起重要作用。但是云可以小到幾百米，較標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的氣候模式50～100 km的網(wǎng)格分辨率小很多，所有模擬云需要消耗大量的計(jì)算資源和時(shí)間。然而，缺乏超級(jí)計(jì)算能力或計(jì)算方式不妥意味著還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。與此同時(shí)，這一領(lǐng)域含有與未來(lái)降水以及云變化如何放大或抵消溫室氣體排放導(dǎo)致變暖等相關(guān)問(wèn)題的巨大誤差?！?/p>

——美國(guó)和德國(guó)學(xué)者面對(duì)氣候變化模式中云模擬的難題，試圖探索機(jī)器深度學(xué)習(xí)是否能夠帶來(lái)一種有效、客觀和數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)的其他方案，能夠快速應(yīng)用于氣候預(yù)測(cè)。該方法基于模仿人類思考和學(xué)習(xí)技能的算法，試圖解決氣候模式次網(wǎng)格問(wèn)題。研究成果已經(jīng)在PNAS發(fā)表，論文第二作者、助理教授Michael Pritchard對(duì)這些工作的意義，表達(dá)了上述看法。

“These contracts represent another step toward bringing commercial sector innovation to NOAA’s mission of delivering life-saving weather forecasts and warnings. By collaboratively testing commercial sector capabilities and new business models, we continue to optimize the impact of our observations and reduce costs for taxpayers.”

“這些合同代表將商業(yè)領(lǐng)域創(chuàng)新納入NOAA挽救生命天氣預(yù)警使命的又一個(gè)步驟。通過(guò)合作驗(yàn)證商業(yè)圈的能力及新的商業(yè)模式，我們繼續(xù)優(yōu)化觀測(cè)的作用和減輕納稅人的負(fù)擔(dān)?！?/p>

——NOAA宣布繼續(xù)投入840萬(wàn)美元購(gòu)買3家私人衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)商的衛(wèi)星無(wú)線電掩星數(shù)據(jù)。這3家中標(biāo)機(jī)構(gòu)（獲得資助經(jīng)費(fèi)）分別是Spire Global（142.5萬(wàn)美元）、PlanetIQ（350萬(wàn)美元）和GeoOptics（344萬(wàn)美元）。據(jù)悉，這是該機(jī)構(gòu)第二次資助私人衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)提供商，2016年NOAA曾經(jīng)分別向Spire Global（37萬(wàn)美元）和GeoOptics（69.5萬(wàn)美元）提供了總計(jì)超過(guò)100萬(wàn)美元的私人商業(yè)衛(wèi)星天氣數(shù)據(jù)合同。在美國(guó)終止與中國(guó)臺(tái)灣合作開(kāi)展第二階段無(wú)線電掩星氣象數(shù)據(jù)項(xiàng)目后，今年NOAA顯然加強(qiáng)了這一商業(yè)天氣數(shù)據(jù)購(gòu)買示范項(xiàng)目的投入力度，該局的衛(wèi)星和信息局官員Karen St. Germain針對(duì)本次購(gòu)買合同表示了上述看法。

“"We determined that in the first eight days post-landfall, 30 percent of Harvey’s stormwater was captured or stored on land --most as standing water that sits on the surface. Around 60 percent was lost or drained into the ocean and Galveston Bay over the first few days after the storm, and the remaining 10 percent was lost via evapotranspiration, or a combination of evaporation and plant transpiration," said first author Chris Milliner of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.”

“我們確定，在登陸后的前8天，“哈維”颶風(fēng)導(dǎo)致降水中有30%被捕獲或儲(chǔ)存在陸地上——最主要是以地面上的積水形式。在風(fēng)暴過(guò)后的最初幾天，大約有60%的水流失或排入海洋和加爾維斯頓灣，剩下的10%因蒸發(fā)蒸騰作用或者是蒸發(fā)和植物蒸騰作用的結(jié)合而消失?！?/p>

——2017年“哈維”颶風(fēng)引發(fā)的得克薩斯州東南部降水，過(guò)程雨量達(dá)到1.5 m，成為美國(guó)創(chuàng)記錄的最濕颶風(fēng)。那么這些降水在颶風(fēng)登陸后流向哪里了？美國(guó)NASA學(xué)者基于GPS技術(shù)在最新的研究里回答了這個(gè)問(wèn)題，該論文的第一作者，來(lái)自JPL的Chris Milliner描述了這次颶風(fēng)降水的去處。

“ESA’s SMOS mission can give us really interesting new information for operational storm forecasting, which we hope to use along with our traditional sources of data. SMOS measurements can help us keep track of the structure of a dangerous storm. Combining SMOS data with that from its US counterpart SMAP mission, will give us more timely information which is essential for monitoring major storms.”

“ESA的SMOS衛(wèi)星確實(shí)能夠提供用于風(fēng)暴預(yù)報(bào)的新信息，這些新數(shù)據(jù)我們將和傳統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)源結(jié)合利用。SMOS觀測(cè)能幫助我們跟蹤危險(xiǎn)風(fēng)暴的結(jié)構(gòu)。將SMOS與美國(guó)類似的SMAP衛(wèi)星結(jié)合起來(lái)，能提供監(jiān)測(cè)風(fēng)暴更及時(shí)的核心信息?！?/p>

——2018年颶風(fēng)和臺(tái)風(fēng)分別在世界各地造成災(zāi)害。在對(duì)這些災(zāi)情進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)和監(jiān)測(cè)過(guò)程中，歐洲空間局（ESA）發(fā)射的SMOS衛(wèi)星（Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity，土壤濕度和海洋鹽分衛(wèi)星）發(fā)揮著獨(dú)特作用。SMOS主要通過(guò)L波段微波傳感器獲得亮溫圖像，獲得地表輻射，從而得到土壤濕度和海洋鹽分信息，該圖像具有穿透云和雨層的能力。強(qiáng)烈風(fēng)暴能干擾這些信息的獲取，但反過(guò)來(lái)也提供了風(fēng)暴本身的信息（如風(fēng)速等）。美國(guó)海軍研究實(shí)驗(yàn)室的Buck Sampson介紹了該衛(wèi)星針對(duì)風(fēng)暴預(yù)報(bào)的用途。

善變的美國(guó)總統(tǒng)Donald Trump針對(duì)氣候變化的表態(tài)，根據(jù)媒體報(bào)到，似乎發(fā)生了某種改變，以下是其接受記者（Lesley Stahl）采訪時(shí)最開(kāi)始的幾句對(duì)話：

Lesley Stahl: Do you still think that climate change is a hoax?

（你還認(rèn)為氣候變化是騙局嗎？）

Donald Trump: I think something’s happening. Something’s changing and it’ll change back again. I don’t think it's a hoax, I think there’s probably a difference. But I don’t know that it’s manmade.I will say this. I don’t wanna give trillions and trillions of dollars. I don’t wanna lose millions and millions of jobs. I don’t wanna be put at a disadvantage.

（我想是發(fā)生了什么。有時(shí)有改變但最后還要變回來(lái)。我不認(rèn)為它是騙局，我想有可能有差別。但是我不知道它是人為造成的，我只能這么說(shuō)。我不想投入大量金錢。我不想失去大量工作崗位。我不想處于不利地位。）

Lesley Stahl: I wish you could go to Greenland, watch these huge chunks of ice just falling into the ocean, raising the sea levels.

（我希望你能去格陵蘭，看看巨大冰塊掉進(jìn)海里，讓海面抬升。）

Donald Trump: And you don’t know whether or not that would have happened with or without man. You don't know.

（可你不知道有人類和沒(méi)有人類時(shí)這些是否會(huì)發(fā)生，你不知道。）

Lesley Stahl: Well, your scientists, your scientists--

（好，你的科學(xué)家，你的科學(xué)家。。。。。。）

President Donald Trump: No, we have--

（不知道，我們有科學(xué)家。。。。。。）

Lesley Stahl: At NOAA and NASA--

（在NOAA和NASA。。。。。）

Donald Trump: We have scientists that disagree with that.

（我們有科學(xué)家不同意這樣的說(shuō)法。）