Story told by Yang Min Compiled by Sun Feng

I first noticed the Vietnamese stock market in 2016. I had been doing various jobs related to the overseas investment market and was closely following Southeast Asian cities like Singapore, Thailand,and Malaysia, but something happened in Vietnam at that point which grabbed my interest.

A Tidbit of News Worth a Mountain of Money

In September of that year, I read fromTalk Vietnam, a newspaper I subscribed to, that within a year and a half the Vietnamese government would withdraw state-owned shares from the two major beer giants, Saigon Brewery and Hanoi Beer, which would mark the beginning of Vietnamese state-owned asset reform. From 2017 to 2020, the Vietnamese government plans to withdraw funds from 406 state-owned enterprises while inviting in foreign capital with all deliberate speed.

This news opened my eyes to Vietnam’s capital market. The Vietnamese stock market, which was established on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange in 2000,started from a modest two or three stocks and 100-point index and cycled through the global bull market from 2006 to 2008,once reaching 1,179 points. In comparison, China A shares were established more than 10 years earlier, yet maxed out at only 5499.6 points.

The ensuing financial crisis forced it back down to around 250 points. The Vietnamese government concurrently tightened its financial policy,resulting in a sluggish stock market. It continued to fall between 2008 and 2013, with the index dropped to a low of 88 points and a high of a paltry 470 points.

我一直做境外投資市場(chǎng)觀察的相關(guān)工作，東南亞市場(chǎng)一般關(guān)注的都是新加坡、泰國(guó)、馬來(lái)西亞這些國(guó)家。但2016年發(fā)生的一件事情，讓我對(duì)越南產(chǎn)生濃厚興趣。

一則消息值千金

那年9月，我訂閱的報(bào)紙《談?wù)撛侥稀防锍霈F(xiàn)一則消息，大意是說(shuō)越南政府將在一年半內(nèi)，從兩大啤酒巨頭西貢啤酒公司和河內(nèi)啤酒公司撤出國(guó)有股份。這標(biāo)志著越南國(guó)有資產(chǎn)改革拉開序幕：2017年至2020年，越南政府計(jì)劃從406家國(guó)有企業(yè)撤資，同時(shí)大力引入國(guó)外資本。

這則消息引起了我對(duì)越南資本市場(chǎng)的注意。越南股市自2000年起在胡志明證券交易所創(chuàng)立，從兩三只股票、100點(diǎn)指數(shù)開始，經(jīng)過(guò)2006年至2008年的全球性牛市，最高達(dá)到1179點(diǎn)。而比它早10多年成立的中國(guó)A股，最高才5499.6點(diǎn)。

隨之而來(lái)的金融危機(jī)，瞬間將它打回到250點(diǎn)附近。越南政府大力收緊金融政策，股市幾乎腰斬，經(jīng)過(guò)2008年至2013年的不斷下跌，指數(shù)下降到88點(diǎn)，最高時(shí)才470點(diǎn)。

這次越南政府的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革，讓我聯(lián)想到越南的四大現(xiàn)象。

第一，我經(jīng)常在越南各大銀行門口看到年利率高達(dá)7%左右的存款廣告，當(dāng)然，貸款利率高，說(shuō)明股票市場(chǎng)不景氣、工商企業(yè)減少投資、民眾減少消費(fèi)。第二，我發(fā)現(xiàn)在越南租房很貴，而靠出租房屋可帶來(lái)7%至8%的年回報(bào)率，消費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)化成了價(jià)值投資。第三，越南的老板很有錢。因?yàn)橘I股票的少，政府為緩解上市企業(yè)的融資困境，推出一系列減稅政策，使得許多上市企業(yè)稅后利潤(rùn)很高，開工廠就等于賺大錢。最后，在首都胡志明市，你會(huì)看到摩托車來(lái)來(lái)往往，異常忙碌，百姓一門心思搞經(jīng)濟(jì)，沒多少人關(guān)心金融和股票，極像中國(guó)改革開放之初，股市剛剛成立的情形。

連續(xù)多年的通貨膨脹，讓越南股市只需45萬(wàn)多美元實(shí)繳注冊(cè)成本，就可以申請(qǐng)上市，近半上市公司市盈率低于10倍，將近90%上市公司市凈率低于2倍。多年的熊市，讓越南股票價(jià)值嚴(yán)重被低估。

The Vietnamese government’s economic reforms reminded me of four major phenomena in Vietnam.

First, I have often seen advertisements for deposits with annual interest rates as high as 7% at the entrance of major banks in Vietnam. Of course, the high interest rate indicated a bearish stock market, reduced industrial and commercial investment, and decreased spending by average people.

Second, I found that rents in Vietnam were expensive, while renting out property could bring an annual return of 7% to 8%,which means consumption was converted into value investment.

Third, factory owners in Vietnam were very rich. Because not many people were buying stocks here, and the government had introduced a series of tax reduction policies to ease the financing difficulties of publicly listed companies. As a result,many of these firms had high after-tax pro fit margins. Opening a factory meant making a mint.

Finally, in the capital Ho Chi Minh City, motorcycles can be seen busily coming and going,with people focused on economic development. Not many people are concerned about finances and stocks, exactly like what happened in China when the Open-up Policy had just begun and stock markets were newly established.

After many years of inflation,the sum of 450,000 US dollars was required to pay for the registration fees to apply for listing in Vietnamese stock market. Nearly half of these public companies had a price-toearnings ratio less than 10 times,and nearly 90% of them had a price-to-book ratio of less than 2 times. Many a year’s bear market had led to a seriously undervalued Vietnamese stock market.

Picking up a Bargain Stock in the Bear market

There is a secret to knowing where to find bargain stocks in the bear market, most especially when the bear market constantly comes back with good news.

Analyzing Vietnam at the micro-level I discovered there are vast numbers of young people in the country. According to statistics, the average age of Vietnam’s population of over 100 million is made up of young people less than 30 years old.Its annual GDP growth rate is 6.2%, second only to China. the minimum wage is 224 US dollars,only one-third of China’s. Many factors including the rise of young consumer groups has made Vietnam extremely attractive.

Analyzing Vietnam on the macro-level, I found that there had been massive progress in Vietnam’s infrastructure,the people’s livelihood, and manufacturing industries after years of hard work. More importantly, Vietnam had signed a number of free trade agreements with China, the United States,Japan, the United Kingdom,Australia, and other countries that account for about 80% of the global GDP. With China’s Belt and Road initiative and a series of multilateral trade agreements or proposals signed, the economic stimulus to and open attitude of Vietnam towards trade had taken the lead throughout Southeast Asia.

With a series of financial deregulations, on September 8, 2017, the Vietnamese stock market broke through 800 points which it had failed to reach for 10 years. In 2017, the market value of the Vietnamese stock market reached 3,500 trillion dong (1 Chinese yuan equals to 3617 Vietnamese dong), a year-on-year increase of 80.5%, equivalent to 70.2% of the GDP, while the stock market’s liquidity increased by 66%. The total net purchase made by overseas investors amounted to 4,617 trillion dong, the highest level in 10 years. It can only be described as investment on an otherworldly scale.

Top Ten and Trend Investing

On January 22, 2018, at the close of market trading in the Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange,trading volume rose so sharply that technical problems occurred and the market was closed for two days.

熊市大膽撿便宜

在熊市撿便宜，是炒股一大訣竅。當(dāng)熊市不斷遇上利好消息時(shí)，更是撿便宜的上佳時(shí)間。

在更微觀層面上，我發(fā)現(xiàn)越南到處都是年輕人。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，越南人口超過(guò)1億，平均年齡低于30歲。年GDP增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)6.2%，僅次于中國(guó)；最低工資224美元，僅為中國(guó)的三分之一。年輕消費(fèi)群體崛起等多項(xiàng)因素，決定了越南的吸引力。

放大到宏觀層面，我發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)過(guò)幾年時(shí)間的埋頭苦干，越南基建、民生、制造業(yè)等出現(xiàn)極大的復(fù)蘇。更重要的是，越南與中國(guó)、美國(guó)、日本、英國(guó)、澳大利亞等占全球GDP約80%的國(guó)家，簽訂自貿(mào)協(xié)定，一帶一路等多項(xiàng)多邊經(jīng)貿(mào)協(xié)議或倡議，經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激和開放態(tài)度領(lǐng)先整個(gè)東南亞地區(qū)。

隨著一系列對(duì)金融政策的松綁，2017年9月8日，越南股市沖破10年來(lái)未能沖上的800點(diǎn)。2017年越南股市市值達(dá)3500萬(wàn)億盾（1人民幣=3617.1196越南盾），同比增長(zhǎng)80.5%，相當(dāng)于GDP的70.2%，股市流動(dòng)性增長(zhǎng)66%。境外投資者凈買入總額達(dá)4617萬(wàn)億盾，為10年來(lái)最高值，可謂是水大魚大。

十大板塊與趨勢(shì)投資

2018年1月22日，在胡志明市股票交易市場(chǎng)收盤集合競(jìng)價(jià)時(shí)間，交易所交易系統(tǒng)因交易量迅猛上漲，發(fā)生技術(shù)問(wèn)題，休市兩天。

股市火爆到交易所崩潰，這在全球資本市場(chǎng)都是難得一見的。但若要具體到買哪一只股票會(huì)賺，我只能說(shuō)見仁見智了。不過(guò)關(guān)注以下十個(gè)板塊，至少會(huì)成倍地降低失敗率。

它們分別是房地產(chǎn)、銀行金融、證券、醫(yī)療藥品、機(jī)場(chǎng)、塑料管、建筑、信息技術(shù)、鋼鐵、紡織這十個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)板塊。

前幾年，我買了兩只股票，一只是空調(diào)股——越南一年到頭都很熱，當(dāng)時(shí)經(jīng)常停電；另一只是電纜通信股，因?yàn)槲铱吹皆絹?lái)越多的年輕人開始玩起了手機(jī)游戲，相信這兩只股會(huì)大大受益于越南經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。兩年時(shí)間內(nèi)，這兩只股票給我?guī)?lái)十幾倍的收益。

在我看來(lái)，越南現(xiàn)在的股市，屬于趨勢(shì)投資。在宏觀和微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不斷正向刺激的情況下，看對(duì)了趨勢(shì)，任何一個(gè)消息都是利好。其實(shí)這種選股邏輯，完全可以照搬20世紀(jì)90年代在中國(guó)股市的投資。

越南國(guó)有資產(chǎn)改革帶來(lái)了空前的利好。比如，在越南，很多國(guó)企已取消其外資持股限制，包括Vinamilk、Domesco、CMC、evetpia等大型公司。同時(shí)，越南擬取消67種經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)的限制條件，以吸引外資流入。

在這種情況下，包括三星、LG、英特爾等企業(yè)都開始在越南擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)能。這兩年，越南預(yù)計(jì)將迎來(lái)高達(dá)200家的IP0高峰，類似于中國(guó)2005年的股改之后，A股爆發(fā)一輪大牛市。

而在2016年IPO的西貢啤酒、越南橡膠集團(tuán)、濱城集團(tuán)、黑水、越捷航空等公司，作為消費(fèi)品、工業(yè)品、房地產(chǎn)、基建、航空方面的代表，都分別完成了股改，并實(shí)現(xiàn)在股市方面的資本增值。

股市無(wú)定法。股市有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，入市需謹(jǐn)慎。這句話放在入局越南市場(chǎng)時(shí)更為重要。除了由于地域原因，對(duì)越南股市不易深入了解之外，越南政治的穩(wěn)定性、經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的可持續(xù)性等方面，都是需要考慮的因素。

（摘自《商界》2018年第3期）

The stock market was so hot that exchanges collapsed, which is rare even in global capital markets. However, in terms of which specific stocks have earning potential, I can only say that’s a matter of opinion. However,focusing on the following ten will at least mitigate the risk.

My personal top ten is real estate, banking finance, securities,pharmaceuticals, airports, plastic pipes, construction, information technology, steel, and textiles.

In the past few years, I have bought two stocks, one was an air-conditioner stock, since Vietnam was hot all year round and blackouts were frequent at the time; the other was a cable communication stock, because I saw more and more young people starting to play games on their mobile phones. I believed these two stocks would greatly benefit from Vietnam’s economic development. And in two years,these two stocks increased in value tenfold.

In my opinion, the current stock market in Vietnam is more about trend investment. With the positive and stimulating macro and microeconomic policies, catching the right wave will just result in good news for the investor. In fact, this stock selection logic is an absolute mirror image of the Chinese stock market in the 1990s.

The state-owned assets reform in Vietnam has brought unprecedented benefits. For example, in Vietnam, many state-owned enterprises have cancelled their foreign ownership restrictions, including large companies such as Vinamilk,Domesco, CMC, and Evetpia. At the same time, Vietnam intends to abolish the restrictions on 67 types of business operations in order to attract foreign capital inflows.

In this case, companies including Samsung, LG, and Intel have begun to expand production capacity in Vietnam. In the next two years, Vietnam is expected to see as many as 200 IPO peaks,which may be similar to what happened after China’s stock reform in 2005, that saw a big bull market break out in A shares.

Companies IPOed in 2016 like Saigon Beer, Vietnam Rubber Group, Ben Thanh Group,Blackwater, and Viet Jaya Airlines, as the representatives of consumer products,industrial products, real estate,infrastructure, and aviation, have all completed their share reforms and achieved capital appreciation in the stock market.

The Vietnamese stock market comes with no guarantees, there is a myriad of risks, and one should exercise great caution upon entering. The Vietnamese market is not for the weak or the timid.Besides the geographical reasons making it difficult to understand the depths of Vietnam’s stock market, other factors also need to be taken into consideration,such as the stability of Vietnam’s politics and the sustainability of its economic policies.

(FromBusiness Magazine,March 2018. Translation:Lu Qiongyao)