李周

(中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院 農(nóng)村發(fā)展研究所，北京 100732)

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林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科建設(shè)的思考

李周

(中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院 農(nóng)村發(fā)展研究所，北京 100732)

學(xué)科建設(shè)是同科學(xué)研究相聯(lián)系的。狹義的科學(xué)研究是指在現(xiàn)有學(xué)科體系里尋求知識(shí)增量、糾正知識(shí)偏差、進(jìn)行知識(shí)更新和完善知識(shí)體系的活動(dòng)。廣義的科學(xué)研究除狹義的科學(xué)研究外，還包括應(yīng)用現(xiàn)有學(xué)科知識(shí)解釋現(xiàn)實(shí)中的現(xiàn)象、解決現(xiàn)實(shí)中的問題的活動(dòng)。所謂學(xué)科建設(shè)就是把狹義的科學(xué)研究中獲得的新成果充實(shí)到學(xué)科體系中的活動(dòng)。學(xué)科建設(shè)的任務(wù)是使學(xué)科體系更加完備、學(xué)科知識(shí)更加精準(zhǔn)，使其能解釋更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象和解決更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，使他人能更容易地掌握和應(yīng)用學(xué)科知識(shí)體系。開展學(xué)科建設(shè)，首先要制定學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃，其次要組織好學(xué)科建設(shè)團(tuán)隊(duì)，第三要構(gòu)建學(xué)科建設(shè)激勵(lì)機(jī)制。中國的做法有很大的不同。比較和分析這些不同，可以獲得各種各樣的證據(jù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)各種各樣的智慧，總結(jié)出各種各樣的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，抽象出各種各樣的范式。學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃要有階段性、優(yōu)先序和可及性，要選好團(tuán)隊(duì)領(lǐng)軍人物、細(xì)化團(tuán)隊(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)和動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化團(tuán)隊(duì)，要確定學(xué)科建設(shè)任務(wù)、設(shè)置預(yù)研性課題，要做好文獻(xiàn)綜述和方法論評估，并針對學(xué)科建設(shè)中暴露出來的問題進(jìn)行學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃、方案、路徑以及領(lǐng)軍人物和成員的調(diào)整。

林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)；學(xué)科建設(shè)；科學(xué)研究

2017年5月14日下午應(yīng)劉偉平教授之約在福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院舉辦的一個(gè)小型學(xué)術(shù)會(huì)議上就林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科建設(shè)談了一些想法。會(huì)后他要求我把發(fā)言整理成文。實(shí)事求是地說，作為一名研究人員，我不太清楚學(xué)科建設(shè)的準(zhǔn)確含義；雖然學(xué)過林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)，平時(shí)關(guān)注林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究，并同林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家有交往，但長期以來一直在做農(nóng)業(yè)政策和農(nóng)村資源環(huán)境研究，并不清楚近些年來林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科建設(shè)的進(jìn)展，不揣冒昧的發(fā)言肯定會(huì)有不少偏離主題和失之偏頗之處。劉偉平教授的約稿對我而言既是壓力也是機(jī)會(huì)。所謂壓力，是指一個(gè)較為隨意的發(fā)言能不能整理成一篇較為規(guī)范的文章具有不確定性，讓失之偏頗的想法在更大范圍里接受更多人的評頭論足要有足夠的承受能力；所謂機(jī)會(huì)，就是可以花更多的時(shí)間琢磨這個(gè)問題，從而減少認(rèn)識(shí)上的偏誤，并力爭使我的想法能在系統(tǒng)性、邏輯性和思辯性上有所改進(jìn)。

1 學(xué)科建設(shè)的內(nèi)容

1.1 學(xué)科建設(shè)的含義

學(xué)科建設(shè)是同科學(xué)研究相聯(lián)系的，但并非所有科學(xué)研究都與學(xué)科建設(shè)相關(guān)。要講清學(xué)科建設(shè)與科學(xué)研究的關(guān)系，就要對科學(xué)研究做狹義和廣義的區(qū)分。狹義的科學(xué)研究，是指在現(xiàn)有學(xué)科體系里尋求知識(shí)增量、糾正知識(shí)偏差、進(jìn)行知識(shí)更新和完善知識(shí)體系的活動(dòng)。所謂科學(xué)研究只有第一，沒有第二，是就狹義的科學(xué)研究而言的。廣義的科學(xué)研究，除了狹義的科學(xué)研究外，還包括應(yīng)用現(xiàn)有學(xué)科知識(shí)解釋現(xiàn)象，解決問題的活動(dòng)。所謂學(xué)科建設(shè)，是把狹義科學(xué)研究中獲得的新成果充實(shí)到學(xué)科體系中的活動(dòng)。雖然借助學(xué)科知識(shí)解釋現(xiàn)象、解決問題，為驗(yàn)證學(xué)科知識(shí)的科學(xué)性、普適性提供新的證據(jù)的活動(dòng)也很重要，但它并不屬于嚴(yán)格意義上的學(xué)科建設(shè)。

學(xué)科建設(shè)的任務(wù)是使學(xué)科體系更加完備、學(xué)科知識(shí)更加精準(zhǔn)，使其能解釋更多的現(xiàn)象和解決更多的問題，使他人能更容易地掌握和應(yīng)用學(xué)科知識(shí)體系。只要現(xiàn)有學(xué)科體系在這些方面還有瑕疵，狹義的科學(xué)研究就不會(huì)停頓下來?，F(xiàn)有學(xué)科體系會(huì)隨著狹義科學(xué)研究的發(fā)現(xiàn)、發(fā)明、創(chuàng)新和前進(jìn)而不斷地拓展、改進(jìn)、更新和完善。

學(xué)科建設(shè)的動(dòng)力來自于教師和研究人員的好奇心、責(zé)任心。無論是教師還是研究人員都應(yīng)當(dāng)有學(xué)科建設(shè)情結(jié)。有了這個(gè)情結(jié)就會(huì)有開展狹義科學(xué)研究的沖動(dòng)，就會(huì)有爭第一的追求，而不會(huì)讓自己停留在講授現(xiàn)有學(xué)科知識(shí)和運(yùn)用這些知識(shí)研究現(xiàn)實(shí)問題的階段。

1.2 學(xué)科建設(shè)的層次

1.2.1 驗(yàn)證

一個(gè)理論能否成為學(xué)科體系的組成部分是需要反復(fù)驗(yàn)證的，它能解釋的現(xiàn)象越多，能解決的問題越多，它的科學(xué)性和普適性就越強(qiáng)，它在學(xué)科體系中的地位就越高。所以，特定的科學(xué)研究決不是只能做一次或只需做一次，也不是首次做是科學(xué)研究，再次做就不是科學(xué)研究。否則，中國的兩彈一星、神舟系列航天器研究也不是科學(xué)研究了，認(rèn)定某項(xiàng)成果達(dá)到國內(nèi)或國際先進(jìn)水平就成為無稽之談了。研究者都是從應(yīng)用已有學(xué)科知識(shí)解釋現(xiàn)象、解決問題起步的。一個(gè)連其他人已經(jīng)做出的研究成果都重復(fù)不出來的人，是不太可能做出其他人都沒有做出來的研究成果的，只有天賦極高的個(gè)別人可以成為例外。驗(yàn)證性的科學(xué)研究需要做，也應(yīng)該做，但倘若這樣的研究成果沒有任何知識(shí)增量，即便發(fā)表在國外頂級刊物上，也只是為已有理論與方法的科學(xué)性、普適性提供新的證據(jù)，而沒有為學(xué)科建設(shè)做出貢獻(xiàn)。所以，研究者不能只做驗(yàn)證性科學(xué)研究，不能一直停留在這個(gè)研究層次。

1.2.2 改進(jìn)

現(xiàn)有的理論與方法并非沒有瑕疵，并非沒有拓展空間。例如，劉易斯推出的二元經(jīng)濟(jì)模型是可以改進(jìn)的，屠呦呦做出的青篙素的純度和藥效是可以提高的，高錕發(fā)明的光導(dǎo)纖維是可以做產(chǎn)業(yè)化推進(jìn)的。這是絕大多數(shù)科研人員一生的工作。袁隆平院士是其中的佼佼者。學(xué)科體系會(huì)在不斷改進(jìn)的過程中變得越來越完美，包括表述更簡潔、概念更精準(zhǔn)、理論更嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)、方法更有效、工具更靈巧、用途更廣闊，等等。具體地說，改進(jìn)有質(zhì)疑、改善、更新和拓展4個(gè)切入點(diǎn)。

1.1.2.1 質(zhì)疑

做學(xué)問的人一定要有質(zhì)疑意識(shí)，而不宜總是采取全盤接受的態(tài)度。例如，我在云南下鄉(xiāng)期間，一名上海知青在栽橡膠苗時(shí)未按照橡膠樹栽植技術(shù)規(guī)程的要求將橡膠苗的嫁接處置于背風(fēng)面，而是將它置于迎風(fēng)面。由于采用這種栽植方式的橡膠樹長勢更好，于是農(nóng)場進(jìn)行了較大規(guī)模的對比試驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明，將嫁接處置于迎風(fēng)面的橡膠樹的長勢顯著好于將嫁接處置于背風(fēng)面的橡膠樹的長勢。由此得出廣東(當(dāng)時(shí)包括海南)墾區(qū)為應(yīng)對臺(tái)風(fēng)而總結(jié)出的橡膠樹栽植技術(shù)規(guī)程并不適合于沒有臺(tái)風(fēng)影響的云南墾區(qū)的結(jié)論。再如，我在學(xué)習(xí)政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)這門課時(shí)，對生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)優(yōu)先增長規(guī)律有異議。理由是：假如生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)增長總是快于消費(fèi)資料生產(chǎn)增長，那么生產(chǎn)資料產(chǎn)值占社會(huì)總產(chǎn)值的份額就會(huì)越來越大，生產(chǎn)單位消費(fèi)資料所需的生產(chǎn)資料就會(huì)隨著時(shí)間推移變得越來越多，兩大部類的關(guān)系就一定會(huì)失衡。我的質(zhì)疑經(jīng)歷了三個(gè)階段。最初認(rèn)為，既然生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)優(yōu)先增長規(guī)律是建立在演算基礎(chǔ)上的，倘若把消費(fèi)資料生產(chǎn)增長更快、消費(fèi)資料生產(chǎn)與生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)增長一樣快等其他結(jié)果演算出來，便能以生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)優(yōu)先增長不具有唯一性來否定這個(gè)規(guī)律。演算結(jié)果表明：上述三種情形都能成立；所不同的是，生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)增長更快時(shí)資本有機(jī)構(gòu)成提高較快，消費(fèi)資料生產(chǎn)增長更快時(shí)資本有機(jī)構(gòu)成提高較慢，生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)與消費(fèi)資料生產(chǎn)增長一樣快時(shí)資本有機(jī)構(gòu)成提高速度介于它們之間(這篇文章發(fā)表在《經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)》1981年第2期上)。這種質(zhì)疑方式顯然有局限性。針對演算方法的不足，我利用所學(xué)的計(jì)算機(jī)知識(shí)編了一個(gè)程序，就生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)增長快于消費(fèi)資料生產(chǎn)增長的狀況能否保持下去進(jìn)行模擬。程序設(shè)計(jì)的原則是：生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)增長必須快于消費(fèi)資料生產(chǎn)增長，為了盡可能長地保持這種狀況，生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)增長只要略快于消費(fèi)資料生產(chǎn)增長即可。結(jié)果表明：在步長保持不變的情形下，維持這一狀態(tài)所需迭代的次數(shù)一年比一年多，最多能維持22年，由此得出生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)增長更快只能維系一段時(shí)間而無法長期持續(xù)下去的結(jié)論(這篇文章發(fā)表在《中國社會(huì)科學(xué)》的內(nèi)刊《未定稿》1983年第11期上)。生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)優(yōu)先增長規(guī)律肯定是根據(jù)觀察到的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象概括出來的，而不是憑空想象出來的，所以接下來要回答的問題是：生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)優(yōu)先增長究竟是哪個(gè)發(fā)展階段的特有現(xiàn)象？我通過經(jīng)濟(jì)史的研究給出了解釋：在工業(yè)化之前，人類的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)以生產(chǎn)消費(fèi)資料為主。這個(gè)階段即便生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)增長更快，也會(huì)因?yàn)樗忌鐣?huì)總生產(chǎn)的份額太小而難以被識(shí)別出來。在工業(yè)化時(shí)期，生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)迅猛增長，其占社會(huì)總生產(chǎn)的份額快速增大成為顯而易見的現(xiàn)象。生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)優(yōu)先增長規(guī)律顯然是根據(jù)這個(gè)階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象概括出來的。工業(yè)化完成后，第三次產(chǎn)業(yè)迅猛發(fā)展，雖然生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)仍在增長，但它占社會(huì)總生產(chǎn)的份額趨于下降，生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)優(yōu)先增長的命題就不成立了。因此得出結(jié)論：經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的過程是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化的過程，生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)優(yōu)先增長是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化第一階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象，這種經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象會(huì)隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化第二階段的到來而消失，將特定階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象稱之為規(guī)律顯然是不適宜的(這篇短文發(fā)表在《經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》1987年第7期上)。

1.2.2.2 改善

中國林業(yè)科學(xué)研究院的邵青還研究員介紹過國外的船跡理論。該理論的主要含義是：雖然特定森林的經(jīng)營都會(huì)瞄準(zhǔn)特定的目標(biāo)，但實(shí)際上不僅能得到目標(biāo)效應(yīng)，還會(huì)得到一系列其他效應(yīng)。鑒于船跡理論的概括不夠直白，我就建議將其概括為更便于理解的旁側(cè)效應(yīng)理論。

1.2.2.3 更新

龍泉碼價(jià)表是計(jì)算杉原條價(jià)格的工具。它的計(jì)量單位是碼兩，創(chuàng)立于17世紀(jì)30年代。這種根據(jù)眉高圍(距杉原條大頭1.7米處的圍徑)和木材長度兩個(gè)指標(biāo)計(jì)算杉原條價(jià)格的方法在中國南方木材市場上沿用了數(shù)百年。中國林學(xué)家認(rèn)為它雖然是世界上第一個(gè)二元木材材積表，但因該表中的碼兩與材積的誤差會(huì)隨著杉原條的增大不斷遞增而于1954年將它棄之不用。為什么龍泉碼價(jià)表中的碼兩和材積的誤差會(huì)隨著杉原條材積增大而遞增？為什么這種木材價(jià)格計(jì)算方法會(huì)在木材市場上連續(xù)使用300多年？為什么龍泉碼價(jià)表的編制同60根長短不同的絲線有關(guān)？我用287根眉高圍和材長不同的杉原條的數(shù)據(jù)對這三個(gè)問題進(jìn)行了研究，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)：用最小二乘法和杉原條數(shù)據(jù)做出的回歸方程表明，龍泉碼價(jià)表要解決的是不同規(guī)格的杉原條材積的可加性問題，而不是木材材積計(jì)算的問題，即龍泉碼價(jià)表中的碼兩并不是杉原條的實(shí)際材積，而是可比性材積。碼兩隨著實(shí)際材積增大不斷遞增，是為了體現(xiàn)大材大價(jià)的原則。這是龍泉碼價(jià)能在木材市場上沿用數(shù)百年的主要原因。有關(guān)文獻(xiàn)都提到龍泉碼價(jià)表是用60根長短不一的絲線做出來的，卻無人考證60根絲線與龍泉碼價(jià)表的關(guān)系。我在網(wǎng)格紙上畫各種規(guī)格杉原條的眉高圍與單位材積碼兩值的曲線時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)，倘若將60根絲線看作是網(wǎng)格紙上的網(wǎng)線，就可以作出假設(shè)：龍泉碼價(jià)表的創(chuàng)始人采用坐標(biāo)系的方法，通過調(diào)整60根絲線的長度尋找一條反映各種規(guī)格杉原條眉高圍與單位材積碼兩值關(guān)系的平滑曲線。龍泉碼價(jià)表的創(chuàng)始人郭維經(jīng)父女在1630年代用坐標(biāo)系方法研究龍泉碼價(jià)，同笛卡爾(1596-1650)提出坐標(biāo)系方法在時(shí)間上是很相近的。笛卡爾采用坐標(biāo)系方法只是弄清了相對位置，郭維經(jīng)父女采用這種方法找到了計(jì)算可比性材積的辦法，解決了不同規(guī)格木材的材積不宜簡單相加的問題，顯然是非常了不起的。中國林學(xué)家將其視為一般的二元木材材積表的認(rèn)識(shí)是有偏差的，必須加以更新。

1.2.2.4 拓展

林毅夫講過他在1980年代初去農(nóng)村調(diào)查時(shí)經(jīng)歷的一件事：他看到一個(gè)人騎著新的自行車過小溪，又看到一個(gè)人扛著舊的自行車過小溪。經(jīng)詢問，新車是公家的，而舊車是個(gè)人的。這個(gè)觀察和調(diào)查可以說明產(chǎn)權(quán)私有的重要性。出于好奇，我利用住在鎮(zhèn)里做調(diào)查的機(jī)會(huì)，在一條可以騎自行車過的小溪邊做觀察和調(diào)查，發(fā)現(xiàn)過小溪確有騎車過和扛車過的不同做法。觀察到的68個(gè)人沒有騎公車的，但有9人騎別人的車。騎自己車的，36個(gè)是騎過去的，23個(gè)是扛過去的，騎過去的大多是較舊的車，扛過去的大多是較新的車。騎別人車的，1個(gè)是騎過去的，8個(gè)是扛過去的。由于樣本小，難以做出騎扛做法與車的新舊的關(guān)聯(lián)性。這個(gè)觀察和調(diào)查的啟示是：大多數(shù)人借用自行車時(shí)會(huì)愛護(hù)他人的產(chǎn)權(quán)，這是借用自行車的做法能延續(xù)下來的重要原因。人的行為差異可以從產(chǎn)權(quán)視角分析，也可以從素質(zhì)視角分析。素質(zhì)低的人的用車行為可能會(huì)因車的產(chǎn)權(quán)不同而異，素質(zhì)高的人的用車行為可能不會(huì)因車的產(chǎn)權(quán)不同而異。所以，產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)可以從明晰界定產(chǎn)權(quán)入手，也可以從提高人的素質(zhì)入手。

關(guān)于傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)戶是否具有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避偏好，最初采用敘述偏好的方法來論證。具體的做法是：請農(nóng)戶在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)小、收益相對較低和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大、收益相對較高的資源配置模式中做選擇。我覺得這個(gè)問題也可以采用顯示偏好的方式來論證。具體的做法是：將農(nóng)戶種植的作物分為收益相對較低的糧食作物和收益相對較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)作物，然后對山西省中陽縣的360多個(gè)農(nóng)戶的2 000多塊地的作物配置進(jìn)行分析，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)好地大多種植收益相對較低的糧食作物(玉米)，差地大多種植收益相對較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)作物(向日葵)。由此也得出了傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)戶具有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避偏好特征的結(jié)論。

1.2.3 原創(chuàng)

原創(chuàng)是指從無到有，即發(fā)現(xiàn)和發(fā)明。例如，發(fā)現(xiàn)一個(gè)至今為止無人知曉的物種，發(fā)明用于測樹的角規(guī)。劉易斯的二元經(jīng)濟(jì)理論，高錕的光纖通訊理論，都屬于原創(chuàng)性理論。這是所有科研人員都想做的事。中國做了很多原創(chuàng)性的事情，我們應(yīng)該珍惜這些成果，比如龍泉碼價(jià)，而不應(yīng)對它們采取不屑一顧的態(tài)度，心甘情愿地跟在其他國家的后面亦步亦趨。

學(xué)科建設(shè)的原創(chuàng)強(qiáng)調(diào)的是第一次，包括第一次提出一個(gè)新概念、翻譯一本林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)著作、發(fā)表一篇研究特定問題的論文或出版一本研究特定問題的專著、整理一篇專門論述特定問題的文獻(xiàn)綜述、編撰一本特定專題的論文集、撰寫一本系統(tǒng)完整的教材，等等。

原創(chuàng)并不是高不可攀的。例如，針對人們都接受的資源分為可再生資源和不可再生資源的分類方法，我提出了物質(zhì)可分為資源和能源的分類方法。根據(jù)物質(zhì)不滅定律，只要投入足夠的能源，所有資源都是可再生的。這個(gè)分類方法的意義是：第一，把工農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)統(tǒng)一起來了，即它們都是利用能源生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品和價(jià)值的過程，所不同的是農(nóng)業(yè)依靠流量性能源即太陽能進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)，工業(yè)利用存量性能源即薪炭、煤炭、石油、天然氣等進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)。第二，只要能源供給具有可持續(xù)性，所有資源供給都具有可持續(xù)性。輻射到地球上的太陽能總量是足夠大的，倘若通過光電、光磁、光熱轉(zhuǎn)換的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提升太陽能的能級、轉(zhuǎn)換效率并降低轉(zhuǎn)換成本，使之能與化石能源競爭，能源供給就具有了可持續(xù)性。這是實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的一個(gè)基石。第三，越來越多的不可再生資源隨著技術(shù)進(jìn)步都再生出來了，越來越多的可再生資源卻滅絕了，所以要實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展必須保護(hù)生物多樣性。這是實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的另一個(gè)基石。

1.2.4 升級

哲學(xué)有古典哲學(xué)和現(xiàn)代哲學(xué)之分。古典哲學(xué)重視解惑，提倡我思故我知；現(xiàn)代哲學(xué)重視質(zhì)疑，提倡我思故我不知。古典哲學(xué)可以用上帝悖論(假如上帝只能創(chuàng)造其背得動(dòng)的山而創(chuàng)造不了其背不動(dòng)的山，那么上帝就不是萬能的；假如上帝能創(chuàng)造其背不動(dòng)的山而他又背不動(dòng)，那么上帝也不是萬能的)來解釋，現(xiàn)代哲學(xué)可以用死亡悖論〔人在未死之前無法感知何為死(至今為止，包括心跳停止、呼吸消失和腦死亡，都是人給出的死的定義?，F(xiàn)實(shí)中出現(xiàn)起死回生現(xiàn)象，說明這些定義是有缺陷的)，死了以后又無法表達(dá)何為死〕來解釋。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)不像哲學(xué)那樣深?yuàn)W，但學(xué)科體系也需要升級。按照我的理解，林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科體系的升級可能會(huì)表現(xiàn)在3個(gè)方面。

1.2.4.1 從木材可持續(xù)供給提升到生態(tài)服務(wù)可持續(xù)供給

最初的林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)以木材采運(yùn)為中心，它的勞動(dòng)對象是自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，除了追求利潤最大化外，還追求天然林經(jīng)營區(qū)內(nèi)木材可持續(xù)產(chǎn)量的穩(wěn)定性。它與農(nóng)業(yè)相比有顯著的獨(dú)特性。近百年來，木材生產(chǎn)出現(xiàn)了速生豐產(chǎn)林和工業(yè)人工林對天然林的替代，它的勞動(dòng)對象轉(zhuǎn)為人工生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，它同農(nóng)業(yè)的相似性提高，獨(dú)特性下降。近些年尤其是今后，隨著森林生態(tài)服務(wù)的重要性變得越來越高，它不同于農(nóng)業(yè)的獨(dú)特性會(huì)再次增強(qiáng)。面對如此顯著的變化，林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科建設(shè)必須與時(shí)俱進(jìn)，從森林的木材可持續(xù)供給提升到森林的生態(tài)服務(wù)可持續(xù)供給，舍此就無法應(yīng)對需求的變化。

1.2.4.2 從學(xué)科進(jìn)展提升到學(xué)科展望

從縱向看，過去學(xué)科知識(shí)具有很強(qiáng)的穩(wěn)定性，學(xué)科建設(shè)的重點(diǎn)是以選而不評、述而不作的方式梳理學(xué)科發(fā)展的歷史沿革。現(xiàn)在學(xué)科知識(shí)的遞增性越來越強(qiáng)，學(xué)科建設(shè)的重點(diǎn)是評述、甄別學(xué)術(shù)研究成果，把握學(xué)科體系進(jìn)展。今后學(xué)科建設(shè)的重點(diǎn)可能是論述學(xué)科體系中的瑕疵和不足，為學(xué)界指明研究攻關(guān)方向，領(lǐng)引林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科發(fā)展。

1.2.4.3 從中國數(shù)據(jù)提升到中國范式

中國作為一個(gè)發(fā)展中國家，學(xué)科建設(shè)要分三步走。第一步是中國證據(jù)階段，即采用國際上最好的理論、方法和工具研究中國問題，使中國的林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究盡快達(dá)到國際先進(jìn)水平；第二步是中國經(jīng)驗(yàn)階段，即用規(guī)范的方法將源于中國林業(yè)實(shí)踐上升為一般經(jīng)驗(yàn)，對學(xué)科知識(shí)體系進(jìn)行擴(kuò)展。第三步是中國范式階段，即在歸納和演繹中國經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行概念創(chuàng)新、模塊創(chuàng)新和模式創(chuàng)新，凝練出中國研究范式。這是一個(gè)循序漸進(jìn)的過程，也是一個(gè)相互交織在一起的過程。

1.3 學(xué)科建設(shè)的意義

1.3.1 甄別知識(shí)增量

學(xué)界的最新研究進(jìn)展分散在最近出版的學(xué)術(shù)刊物、專著和教材中，其中哪些是知識(shí)增量，應(yīng)該充實(shí)到學(xué)科體系之中，需要通過學(xué)科建設(shè)這個(gè)制度化的平臺(tái)進(jìn)行評價(jià)和甄別。學(xué)科建設(shè)不僅要定期地做，而且還要有公布評估結(jié)果的學(xué)術(shù)渠道，才能確保評價(jià)與甄別的公正性、完整性、精準(zhǔn)性、權(quán)威性。

1.3.2 把握學(xué)科前沿

每個(gè)人的精力都是有限的，擅長又有很大的不同，很難獨(dú)自把握整個(gè)學(xué)科的研究前沿。通過學(xué)科建設(shè)這個(gè)制度化的平臺(tái)，借助于群體的力量把握整個(gè)學(xué)科的研究前沿，就可以最大限度地優(yōu)化學(xué)術(shù)創(chuàng)新的環(huán)境，讓所有人都能用較少的時(shí)間了解學(xué)科研究進(jìn)展，讓所有人用更好的理論、方法和工具去研究現(xiàn)實(shí)問題。

1.3.3 提高教學(xué)質(zhì)量

中國林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科招收的學(xué)生總量非常之多。開啟這些學(xué)生的智能，提升這些學(xué)生的本領(lǐng)，需要從很多方面入手，提高教學(xué)質(zhì)量是其中的一個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)。學(xué)科建設(shè)是從整體上提高林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)教學(xué)質(zhì)量最為重要的措施。作為教育工作者，有責(zé)任把最好的文獻(xiàn)篩選出來，把握好學(xué)科研究前沿，為學(xué)生攀登學(xué)術(shù)高峰提供階梯。

2 學(xué)科建設(shè)的基本途徑

2.1 立足本土

2.1.1 引進(jìn)國外論著方式的學(xué)科建設(shè)

中國林業(yè)科學(xué)的學(xué)科建設(shè)最初走的是由學(xué)子出國留學(xué)，學(xué)成后把經(jīng)典教材或?qū)Ｖ胫袊穆纷?。中國林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的學(xué)科建設(shè)有所不同，走的是邀請?zhí)K聯(lián)專家來中國舉辦研究生班和教師進(jìn)修班的路子。該階段的學(xué)科建設(shè)缺乏本土化的視角，尚未認(rèn)識(shí)到中國實(shí)踐在學(xué)科建設(shè)中的不可或缺性。

2.1.2 博采眾長方式的學(xué)科建設(shè)

20世紀(jì)80年代中后期，雍文濤老部長組織了一項(xiàng)研究。大家都知道該課題的最終成果是中國林業(yè)出版社出版的《林業(yè)分工論》這本專著。其實(shí)，雍部長做這件事的初衷是他不滿意看過的林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)論著，想組織一批年輕人以博采眾長的方式編寫一本林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。我的大學(xué)同班同學(xué)徐智和我有幸參加了他的秘書王前進(jìn)組織的討論。我們閱讀了可查閱的教材、專著和論文，分別畫出了蘇聯(lián)、美國、德國、法國和中國若干本林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教材和著作的結(jié)構(gòu)圖，在比較和綜合的基礎(chǔ)上拿出了一個(gè)自以為博采眾長的林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)框架，為林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科建設(shè)做了一點(diǎn)力所能及的工作。雖然雍部長的初衷因課題由務(wù)虛轉(zhuǎn)為務(wù)實(shí)而沒有實(shí)現(xiàn)，但以博采眾長的方式推進(jìn)林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科建設(shè)的想法是他率先提出來的。近些年來出版的林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教材，大多都采取了這樣的方式。

2.1.3 本土化方式的學(xué)科建設(shè)

理論創(chuàng)新必須基于實(shí)踐，只有來源于實(shí)踐，才能指導(dǎo)實(shí)踐。所謂本土化就是基于中國實(shí)踐。前面已經(jīng)指出，中國林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科建設(shè)要由中國證據(jù)階段走向中國經(jīng)驗(yàn)階段和中國范式階段。尋求中國證據(jù)必須源于中國實(shí)踐，總結(jié)中國經(jīng)驗(yàn)也必須源于中國實(shí)踐，歸納中國范式還必須源于中國實(shí)踐。離開了中國實(shí)踐，中國林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科建設(shè)就是無源之水、無本之木。

從表象上看，中國實(shí)行的是大一統(tǒng)的體制，甚至大家的說法都有極大的相似性。然而，我們決不要被這種表象所迷惑。中國的林業(yè)是世界上參與實(shí)踐人數(shù)最多，實(shí)踐做法也最多的國家。我們不能對這個(gè)富礦熟視無睹，更不能視而不見。其實(shí)，你深入林區(qū)就可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，各個(gè)地方和各人的想法和做法有很大的不同。從中可以找到各種各樣的證據(jù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)各種各樣的智慧，總結(jié)出各種各樣的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。只要下功夫做，從中概括出中國經(jīng)驗(yàn)，抽象出中國范式?jīng)Q不是天方夜譚。最近我去農(nóng)村同農(nóng)民討論綠水青山就是金山銀山這個(gè)話題。浙北山區(qū)的農(nóng)民告訴我，他們那里幾百年來甚至幾千年來都是綠水青山，但直到上海游客紛紛來到這里以后，才真正感受到它們變成了金山銀山。這種變化實(shí)際上是綠水青山由發(fā)展第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)轉(zhuǎn)為發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)帶來的，所以更為準(zhǔn)確的表述應(yīng)該是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展會(huì)使綠水青山變成金山銀山。我們學(xué)林的人往往以為青山必然帶來綠水。江西的農(nóng)民告訴我青山綠水是兩個(gè)概念。他們通過植樹造林、封山育林使荒山變成了青山，但有了青山并不一定就有綠水。要擁有綠水，必須治理畜禽養(yǎng)殖污染、種植業(yè)面源污染和工業(yè)企業(yè)點(diǎn)源污染。這兩個(gè)例子表明：只有從實(shí)踐中歸納出來的理論才能經(jīng)得起實(shí)踐檢驗(yàn)，所以了解實(shí)踐是學(xué)科建設(shè)不可忽缺的環(huán)節(jié)。

2.2 更新知識(shí)

為什么經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)會(huì)被其他學(xué)科的科學(xué)家獲取？最主要的原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家具有極大的包容心，另一個(gè)原因則是很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家不愿放棄已有的理論和方法，不愿越雷池一步。也就是說，總是憑借已有的知識(shí)認(rèn)識(shí)問題、解決問題，而沒有知識(shí)更新的視角，理論、方法和工具創(chuàng)新肯定是不徹底的，學(xué)科建設(shè)肯定是不徹底的。例如，不少學(xué)者完全沉迷于產(chǎn)權(quán)私有化、資源配置市場化，以為把這兩件事情做好了，所有問題都會(huì)迎刃而解。簡略地說，至今為止的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展經(jīng)歷了供給不足、需求不足、滯脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和生態(tài)危機(jī)4個(gè)階段。在不同的發(fā)展階段，發(fā)揮主導(dǎo)作用的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論和經(jīng)濟(jì)政策是明顯不同的。

供給不足階段的主要應(yīng)對措施是提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率。勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的提高可以從激發(fā)勞動(dòng)者的內(nèi)在動(dòng)力、提高勞動(dòng)者的勞動(dòng)技能和對勞動(dòng)者施加外在壓力等方面入手。最簡單的提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的辦法是劃小基本生產(chǎn)單位。這是基本生產(chǎn)單位由原始公社轉(zhuǎn)為家庭的重要原因。雖然基本生產(chǎn)單位由原始公社轉(zhuǎn)為家庭極大地提高了勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率，但并沒有消除供給短缺問題。最簡單的提高勞動(dòng)者的勞動(dòng)技能的辦法是分工，包括工序分工、產(chǎn)品分工和地區(qū)分工。勞動(dòng)的分工、勞動(dòng)者技能的提高和各地區(qū)資源比較優(yōu)勢的發(fā)揮，極大地提高了勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率，但仍然沒有全面消除供給短缺問題。最簡單的對勞動(dòng)者施加外在壓力的辦法是引入競爭機(jī)制。勞動(dòng)者的競爭、企業(yè)的競爭和地區(qū)的競爭，促進(jìn)了勞動(dòng)者潛力的釋放，促進(jìn)了技術(shù)、組織和制度的創(chuàng)新，促進(jìn)了內(nèi)部規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)和外部規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)的形成，但仍然沒有全面消除供給短缺問題。實(shí)際上，供給不足問題的解決是劃小生產(chǎn)單位(或私有化)、細(xì)化勞動(dòng)分工和促進(jìn)充分競爭三位一體共同作用的結(jié)果。

1930年代，以供給全面過剩為特征的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)，是需求不足成為經(jīng)濟(jì)研究的主要問題的標(biāo)志性事件。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家發(fā)現(xiàn)，有效需求不足是由投資傾向遞減、消費(fèi)傾向遞減和居民持幣偏好造成的。應(yīng)對這些問題的主要措施是：從增加具有乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的公共品入手提高私人投資效率，減緩?fù)顿Y傾向遞減規(guī)律的影響；基于低收入群體的消費(fèi)傾向高于高收入群體的消費(fèi)傾向的事實(shí)，從調(diào)節(jié)收入分配入手讓低收入群體得到更多收入，減緩消費(fèi)傾向遞減規(guī)律的影響；基于居民缺乏穩(wěn)定的收入預(yù)期是其形成持幣偏好的主要原因，從構(gòu)建社會(huì)保障體系入手降低他們防范未來收入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的必要性，減緩居民持幣偏好規(guī)律的影響。這些措施確實(shí)刺激了投資和消費(fèi)需求，使出現(xiàn)該問題的經(jīng)濟(jì)體保持了約30年的穩(wěn)定增長。

1970年代又出現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯和通貨膨脹交織在一起的問題。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，滯脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是稅負(fù)過重導(dǎo)致投資與消費(fèi)不足、福利過多導(dǎo)致就業(yè)意愿不足和壟斷過強(qiáng)導(dǎo)致工資和物價(jià)剛性上漲等因素造成的。應(yīng)對這些問題的主要措施是：減輕稅賦，刺激投資與消費(fèi)；減少政府干預(yù)，讓市場機(jī)制發(fā)揮決定性作用；削弱工會(huì)和大公司對勞動(dòng)力市場和商品市場的壟斷，制止工資和物價(jià)輪番上漲。這些措施的實(shí)施有效地消除了滯脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定性的沖擊。

生態(tài)危機(jī)是人們只關(guān)注自己的欲望而不關(guān)注自然的需求，只計(jì)算經(jīng)濟(jì)資本的增量而不計(jì)算自然資本的減量，只向生態(tài)資本索取而不向生態(tài)資本投資等造成的。應(yīng)對這些問題的主要措施是：以閉環(huán)的再生產(chǎn)體系替代開環(huán)的再生產(chǎn)體系，實(shí)現(xiàn)資源再利用，確保污染排放總量低于環(huán)境容量；以可再生的綠色能源替代不可再生的化石能源，確保能源的可持續(xù)供給；以包括經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的核算體系替代單一經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的核算體系，確保經(jīng)濟(jì)總價(jià)值和生態(tài)總價(jià)值的雙增長。

簡言之，以家庭為基本生產(chǎn)單位或私有化是人們最早做出的選擇。正是這一措施遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠，才孕育出越來越完善的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論和經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。如果時(shí)至今日仍把它作為包治百病的靈丹妙藥，顯然有失之偏頗之嫌。其實(shí)，改革中形成的知識(shí)也需要更新。中國采用的是漸進(jìn)式改革戰(zhàn)略。這種改革有兩個(gè)特性，一是不斷拓展改革，二是不斷深化改革。就此而言，堅(jiān)持已有的改革做法永久不變的理念是有問題的。中國總體上已經(jīng)進(jìn)入發(fā)達(dá)國家的門檻。中國東部地區(qū)的表現(xiàn)會(huì)更好一些。我們不能總以極不發(fā)達(dá)的發(fā)展中國家的視角思考問題。例如，基于有償獲得集體資產(chǎn)股權(quán)的制度安排形成的如何增如何減的改革經(jīng)驗(yàn)，替代基于集體產(chǎn)權(quán)無償獲得的制度安排形成的土地承包經(jīng)營權(quán)生不增死不減的改革經(jīng)驗(yàn)，具有客觀必然性。同理，在資源配置方面必須讓市場機(jī)制發(fā)揮決定性作用，但不宜據(jù)此否定政府干預(yù)的必要性。限于篇幅，這里就不展開了。

2.3 創(chuàng)新方法

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家編了很多自嘲的笑話。其中一個(gè)笑話是：一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、一個(gè)物理學(xué)家和一個(gè)化學(xué)家同時(shí)被困在一個(gè)無人煙的孤島上，身邊除了罐頭什么都沒有。怎樣把罐頭打開充饑呢？物理學(xué)家的想法是找一塊大小適宜的石頭把罐頭砸開，化學(xué)家的想法是找一些柴燒火，利用熱脹冷縮原理使罐頭崩開，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的想法是假設(shè)有一把起子就可以把罐頭撬開。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的想法看似先進(jìn)卻完全沒有可行性，物理學(xué)家和化學(xué)家的想法看似落后卻具有可行性。另一個(gè)笑話是：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在路燈下找鑰匙，路人發(fā)現(xiàn)他一直找不到便問他鑰匙掉哪里了？經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說掉在黑暗處了。路人感到很困惑，于是問經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，既然鑰匙掉在黑暗處，你為什么在亮處找呢？經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的回答是只有亮處看得見。鑰匙掉在黑暗處，即便提高路燈亮度(改進(jìn)方法)也是找不到的；拿一個(gè)電筒(常規(guī)方法)到黑暗處找方能找到。簡言之，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家決不要熱衷于提出貌似先進(jìn)卻完全沒有可行性的方法，更不要想當(dāng)然地以為先進(jìn)方法能解決數(shù)據(jù)粗糙或不足等問題。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)最早采用敘述方法。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的主要工作是按照事先設(shè)計(jì)的邏輯框架敘述看到或發(fā)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象，并做出一些總結(jié)性評論和(或)經(jīng)驗(yàn)性預(yù)測?，F(xiàn)在的調(diào)查報(bào)告、文獻(xiàn)綜述等仍然采用這種方法。由于這些評論和預(yù)測主要基于主觀推斷，而不是對不可觀察因素的分析，所以并不是真正的定性分析。

鑒于敘述方法的局限性，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)推出了定量分析方法。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的主要工作是按照統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的要求設(shè)計(jì)樣本框、確定樣本量和選擇抽樣方法，然后用統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)或計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法分析經(jīng)整理的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，弄清經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的關(guān)系。這種分析調(diào)查對象的特征、資產(chǎn)和資源擁有量和具體收支情況的方法也有局限性，因?yàn)樵诂F(xiàn)實(shí)中不僅觀察到的因素之間可能有相關(guān)性，觀察到的因素與觀察不到的因素之間也可能有相關(guān)性。

要克服定量分析的局限性，還要分析觀察到的因素與觀察不到的因素之間的相關(guān)性，這才是真正的定性分析。簡略地說，分析騎車人行為和自行車產(chǎn)權(quán)這兩個(gè)都能觀察的因素的關(guān)系屬于定量分析，分析能觀察到的騎車人行為和觀察不到的騎車人素質(zhì)這兩個(gè)因素的關(guān)系屬于定性分析。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)除了敘述方法、定量方法、定性方法外，還有悟性方法。研究者憑借敘述、定量、定性方法得到的研究結(jié)果能對經(jīng)濟(jì)決策提供信息充分的支持，但決策者通常不會(huì)直接把研究者的決策建議作為決策，而會(huì)用自己的悟性方法進(jìn)行決策。所以，不宜簡單地把研究方法劃分為定性和定量兩類，更不宜把研究中形成的決策建議等同于決策。

我不厭其煩地介紹各種方法的含義，就是希望大家能在正確的方向或軌道上進(jìn)行方法選擇和創(chuàng)新。

2.3.1 林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究對象需要改進(jìn)

歷史上和現(xiàn)實(shí)中的林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是圍繞著木材可持續(xù)生產(chǎn)展開的。它最為關(guān)注的是蓄積量、生物量和產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量，這當(dāng)然是一個(gè)知識(shí)體系。但是，森林經(jīng)營正在由資源經(jīng)營轉(zhuǎn)為生態(tài)系統(tǒng)經(jīng)營。面對森林經(jīng)營轉(zhuǎn)型，林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科體系也要轉(zhuǎn)型。所以，從長期看，林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)很可能會(huì)圍繞著森林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)經(jīng)營展開，它更關(guān)注的將是森林功能、森林景觀和生態(tài)服務(wù)的可持續(xù)。這個(gè)知識(shí)體系是什么，顯然是非常值得研究的。

2.3.2 林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究方法需要改進(jìn)

為什么歷史最悠久的生物科學(xué)會(huì)被其他學(xué)科超越？因?yàn)樯锟茖W(xué)在很長時(shí)間里一直沿用經(jīng)驗(yàn)科學(xué)方法，而力學(xué)和物理學(xué)、化學(xué)很快就采用了實(shí)驗(yàn)科學(xué)方法。林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科的發(fā)展要趕上其他學(xué)科的發(fā)展，必須要用實(shí)驗(yàn)科學(xué)方法替代經(jīng)驗(yàn)科學(xué)方法。

2.3.3 林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究數(shù)據(jù)來源需要改進(jìn)

林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究是從兩兩比較開始的，現(xiàn)在進(jìn)入用歷史數(shù)據(jù)推演未來的階段。走捷徑的人直接用統(tǒng)計(jì)資料推演，勤奮的人用合乎統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)要求的農(nóng)戶和企業(yè)調(diào)查資料推演。這些都是有道理的。需要提醒大家的是：現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)進(jìn)入大數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)代，所有活動(dòng)都留有記錄或痕跡。如果能夠利用大數(shù)據(jù)平臺(tái)不斷地將新的數(shù)據(jù)納入研究之中，不僅大數(shù)據(jù)可以得到及時(shí)和充分利用，而且經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究的方法論會(huì)有重大突破。

3 如何組織學(xué)科建設(shè)

學(xué)科建設(shè)是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資，沒有達(dá)到預(yù)期目標(biāo)是很正常的，時(shí)時(shí)處處都達(dá)到預(yù)期目標(biāo)才是很不正常的。我們一定要擯棄講成績夸夸其談?wù)f問題閃爍其詞，既欺騙別人也欺騙自己的陋習(xí)。諸如學(xué)科建設(shè)這種謀事在人、成事在天的事情，最需要做的事情就是把它精心組織好，而不是用最華麗的語言把它的結(jié)果包裝好。

3.1 要有學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃

根據(jù)我的觀察，不少高校和科研機(jī)構(gòu)都用外部考核替代內(nèi)部考核的辦法。只關(guān)注老師和研究人員發(fā)了多少篇論文，發(fā)在什么等級的刊物上，而不太關(guān)注這些成果同學(xué)科建設(shè)有什么關(guān)系。一些老師和研究人員熱衷于做憑借已有知識(shí)就能做成的事情，腦子里完全沒有學(xué)科建設(shè)的思考。就此而言，制定學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃作為構(gòu)建有效的激勵(lì)機(jī)制和適宜的考核機(jī)制的基礎(chǔ)性工作，有助于引導(dǎo)大家心往一處想，勁往一處使，因而是非常必要的。

3.1.1 學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃要有階段性

學(xué)科建設(shè)不可能一步登頂，它必須循序漸進(jìn)。從縱向看，可以按照中國證據(jù)、中國經(jīng)驗(yàn)和中國范式的邏輯制定分階段的學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃。通過分階段規(guī)劃的實(shí)施，實(shí)現(xiàn)分階段目標(biāo)。不過，將學(xué)科建設(shè)任務(wù)機(jī)械地分為各自獨(dú)立的三個(gè)層次顯然是不適宜的。更適宜的做法是把三個(gè)層次的目標(biāo)視為一個(gè)整體，在此基礎(chǔ)上做重點(diǎn)有所不同的學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃。即第一階段以第一層次目標(biāo)為重點(diǎn)，第二階段以第二層次目標(biāo)為重點(diǎn)，第三階段以第三層次目標(biāo)為重點(diǎn)，逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)的高度化。

3.1.2 學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃要有優(yōu)先序

可以按照最可能做的工作、最需要做的工作和最值得做的工作的邏輯確定學(xué)科建設(shè)的優(yōu)先序。這個(gè)優(yōu)先序既可以是特定團(tuán)隊(duì)的工作的優(yōu)先序，也可以作為團(tuán)隊(duì)內(nèi)部和不同團(tuán)隊(duì)工作分工的依據(jù)，如第三梯隊(duì)的人優(yōu)先做最可能做的工作，第二梯隊(duì)的人優(yōu)先做最需要做的工作，第一梯隊(duì)的人優(yōu)先做最值得做的工作。這只是一個(gè)粗線條的描述，現(xiàn)實(shí)中的學(xué)科建設(shè)活動(dòng)一定會(huì)更加豐富多彩。

3.1.3 學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃要有可及性

學(xué)科建設(shè)必須按照跳起來夠得著的原則確定擬達(dá)到的目標(biāo)。站著甚至坐著也能達(dá)到的目標(biāo)顯然不是適宜的目標(biāo)，跳起來也夠不著的目標(biāo)也不是適宜的目標(biāo)。學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃最為重要的工作是首先進(jìn)行可及性和可行性分析，然后針對既可及又可行的目標(biāo)制定實(shí)施方案，并把工作細(xì)化到人，措施細(xì)化到人，時(shí)間細(xì)化到年。舍此，學(xué)科建設(shè)就有可能停留在紙上談兵階段。

3.2 要有學(xué)科建設(shè)團(tuán)隊(duì)

雖然每個(gè)人都有最擅長的地方，但最擅長的并不都是做學(xué)科建設(shè)，擅長做學(xué)科建設(shè)的人不一定是表態(tài)最積極的人。表態(tài)最積極的人又不一定是擅長做學(xué)科建設(shè)的人。如何把現(xiàn)實(shí)中最適宜做學(xué)科建設(shè)的人識(shí)別出來，是學(xué)科建設(shè)最為基礎(chǔ)也最為重要的工作。

3.2.1 選好領(lǐng)軍人物

組建學(xué)科建設(shè)團(tuán)隊(duì)的關(guān)鍵是確定最適宜做學(xué)科建設(shè)的領(lǐng)軍人物。學(xué)科建設(shè)領(lǐng)軍人物的主要工作有三：一是根據(jù)學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃制定學(xué)科建設(shè)實(shí)施方案。二是在專心聆聽每個(gè)人的演講、細(xì)心閱讀每個(gè)人的論著和精心做好同每個(gè)人交流的過程中發(fā)現(xiàn)每個(gè)人擅長之處，在此基礎(chǔ)上選擇適宜的人組成團(tuán)隊(duì)，并把學(xué)科建設(shè)方案中的具體活動(dòng)落實(shí)到人。三是對學(xué)科建設(shè)的進(jìn)程和每個(gè)人的工作進(jìn)行評估。

3.2.2 細(xì)化團(tuán)隊(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)

團(tuán)隊(duì)成員的年齡段分布要相對均勻，這是保持學(xué)科建設(shè)穩(wěn)定性和持續(xù)性的必要條件；團(tuán)隊(duì)成員的學(xué)歷結(jié)構(gòu)要有較強(qiáng)的層次性，這是保證各種工作都有適宜的成員承擔(dān)的必要條件；團(tuán)隊(duì)成員的知識(shí)結(jié)構(gòu)要有很強(qiáng)的互補(bǔ)性，這是開展協(xié)同攻關(guān)的必要條件。最為重要的是團(tuán)隊(duì)里既要有思想者，又要有執(zhí)行者，而不能都是思想者或都是執(zhí)行者。

3.2.3 動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化團(tuán)隊(duì)

流水不腐、戶樞不蠹。學(xué)科建設(shè)團(tuán)隊(duì)也是如此。要使學(xué)科建設(shè)團(tuán)隊(duì)一直保持活力，團(tuán)隊(duì)領(lǐng)軍人物及其成員必須要有流動(dòng)性。要以招標(biāo)制的方式對團(tuán)隊(duì)領(lǐng)軍人物和成員進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化，終身制不可取，輪換制(輪崗制)也不可取。任何團(tuán)隊(duì)都會(huì)有優(yōu)化空間。以動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化的辦法拓展這個(gè)空間，是克服人才短板對學(xué)科建設(shè)制約的重要途徑。

這件事情說起來容易做起來難，但它是一件必須要做的事情。否則，就無法將學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃落到實(shí)處。

3.3 要有學(xué)科建設(shè)機(jī)制

3.3.1 啟動(dòng)機(jī)制

萬事開頭難，學(xué)科建設(shè)也是如此。首先，要按照學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃確定擬開展的學(xué)科建設(shè)任務(wù)。其次，要針對特定的學(xué)科建設(shè)任務(wù)設(shè)置預(yù)研性課題。每個(gè)預(yù)研性課題要在規(guī)定時(shí)間里完成文獻(xiàn)綜述并提出方法論。第三，對文獻(xiàn)綜述和方法論進(jìn)行評估。兩個(gè)評估都通過了，特定內(nèi)容的學(xué)科建設(shè)方能啟動(dòng)。雖然按照“草鞋沒樣，邊打邊像”的理念，也能以不斷糾偏的方式慢慢聚焦到核心問題，但良好的開端是成功的一半，在正式啟動(dòng)前做好充分準(zhǔn)備，是非常必要的。

3.3.2 評估機(jī)制

學(xué)科建設(shè)計(jì)劃啟動(dòng)后，要做定期和不定期的評估。看看學(xué)科建設(shè)在哪些方面有進(jìn)展，哪些方面沒有進(jìn)展；哪些成員做得比較好，哪些成員做得比較差；哪些經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以推廣，哪些問題需要解決，等等?？茖W(xué)研究能不能出成果既有必然性，也有偶然性。所以學(xué)科建設(shè)評估最重要的是評估所做選擇在方向上是否正確，所做工作在學(xué)術(shù)上是否有潛在價(jià)值，所做努力能否從成果量、工作量上體現(xiàn)出來，而不宜簡單地用成果乘以發(fā)表刊物影響因素得出的成果總分進(jìn)行排序。這些看得見的因素的評估也很重要，但又要防止寬泛的學(xué)術(shù)導(dǎo)向?qū)μ囟ǖ膶W(xué)科建設(shè)的干擾。

3.3.3 調(diào)整機(jī)制

任何學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃都不可能完美無缺，而且它的缺陷會(huì)隨著時(shí)間推移暴露得越來越充分。所以，評估既是為了肯定成績、增強(qiáng)信心，更是為了發(fā)現(xiàn)識(shí)別偏差、規(guī)劃偏差、工作偏差和尋找改進(jìn)途徑。所謂調(diào)整，包括學(xué)科建設(shè)規(guī)劃、方案和路徑調(diào)整，以及學(xué)科建設(shè)的領(lǐng)軍人物和成員調(diào)整。

21世紀(jì)，中國不僅將成為世界上最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，而且最為豐富的改革實(shí)踐將會(huì)概括出能夠解釋更多經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象的理論和范式。中國現(xiàn)在是世界上研究林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的專業(yè)人員最多的國家，按照人的平均素質(zhì)基本相似的人口學(xué)規(guī)律，中國理應(yīng)有條件提出并達(dá)到林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究范式創(chuàng)新的學(xué)科建設(shè)目標(biāo)。

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.001

Research on the Problem of Under-Forest Economic Development in Key State-Owned Forest Areas：Taking Yichun as an Example

MA Mingqin1，ZHENG Desheng2

(1.Department of Forestry Economics，Yichun Forestry Cadre School，Yichun，Heilongjiang 153000 China；2.Periodical Office of China Forestry Economy，Northeast Forestry University，Haerbin 150040 China)

Original Articlein馬明芹，鄭德勝．重點(diǎn)國有林區(qū)林下經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展問題研究：以伊春為例 ．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：1-9．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.002

Under-Forest Economic Development Promoted the Economic Transformation of Forest Region？Take Heilongjiang State-Owned Forest Area for Example

WANG Yufang，GUO Juan，ZHOU Mei，LI Jue，ZHAO Mingxin

(College of Economics and Management，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——With the implementation of Natural Forest Protection Project，the economic transformation of state-owned forest areas in Heilongjiang province has entered a new stage．In recent years，with the strong support of the state and local governments，the development of the under-forest economy in the state-owned forest in Heilongjiang Province has achieved some success．The economy of state-owned forest areas in Heilongjiang province has experienced rapid growth，which drive the growth of economic transformation of state-owned forest areas．However，does the development of under-forest economy continuously promote the complete transformation of the economy of state-owned forest areas in Heilongjiang province？

⑵ Methods——This paper based on time series data about the development of under-forest economy and economic transformation of state-owned forest region in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2015．Established the VAR model base on Eviews 6.0 to test the co-integration relationship and analysis of dynamic response between under-forest economic development index and economic transformation index．Meanwhile，variance decomposition was used to test the contribution rate between the development of under-forest economy and the economic transformation of state-owned forest area．

⑶ Results——In this paper，the research results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the development of under-forest economic and economic transformation of state-owned forest areas from 2000 to 2015．The development of under-forest economy has a certain role in promoting the economic transformation in state-owned forest．Analyzing the contribution rate which were collected from 4 industries，the biggest one is the forestry tourism and leisure service industry and its contribution rate is 35.45%；the second one is non-wood forest products manufacturing industry and its contribution rate is 2.07%；the third one is forest planting and mining industry and its contribution rate is 0.84%；the last one is the forest park and its contribution rate is 0.18%．In addition，the contribution of under-forest economic various industrial development to the economic transformation of state-owned forest areas is different．In order to realize the rapid success of the economic transformation in state-owned forest areas，state-owned forest areas need to abandon the timber harvesting and production to make full use of under-forest resources，meanwhile，state-owned forest areas should open up different ways and methods to speed up and promote the economic transformation of state-owned forest．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Through the analysis，it is concluded that the development of the under-forest economy has a certain effect on the economic transformation of the state-owned forest area in Heilongjiang province．The promotion effect is the order of the forest tourism and leisure service industry，the non-wood forest product processing and manufacturing industry，underground planting and forest parks．Above all，this paper suggest that：in the short term，the state-owned forest area in Heilongjiang province can develop the under-forest economy through forestry tourism，leisure service industry，the non-wood forest product processing，manufacturing industry，etc．The connotative development need to develop in the state-owned forest area．The less contribution to the economic transformation of the state-owned forest areas can not be ignored and must to rational use and development of other industries in the under-forest economy，while the state-owned forest areas need to vigorously introduce advanced technology and a large number of useful talents，to improve the state-owned forest industry value to speed up the economic transfer proposal．

Key words：under-forest economic；economic transformation；contribution；VAR model

Original Articlein王玉芳，郭娟，周妹，等．林下經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展促進(jìn)了林區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型嗎？以黑龍江省國有林區(qū)為例．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：10-16．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.003

Farmers’ Income Diversity and Its Influence on Forestland CirculationWillingness：An Empirical Study Based on Qingyuan County

SI Yaweia，LI Mina，b

(a.Economic and Management College，b.Post Doctoral Research Center of AgriculturalResources and Environment，Shenyang Agriculture University，Shenyang 110161 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——With the increasing degree of openness in China，the diversification of farmers’ production activities and the diversification of income sources are becoming increasingly prominent．In the process of changing farmers’ income pattern，the value and understanding of the land would inevitably change．Land transfer is one of the important ways to realize large-scale operation，promote income，collect urban and rural areas．Farmers’ income diversity have an impact on the forest land circulation behavior of farm．Therefore，it is necessary to study the impact of income diversity on forest land circulation．

⑵ Methods——Research methods of this paper include literature review method，field investigation interview method，statistical analysis method and econometric analysis method．Method of the random sampling was used to investigate farmers including 219 household in Qingyuan country of Fushun city．Building a theoretical framework of farmer forest land circulation to explore the impact of farmers’ income diversity on the transfer of forest land from an empirical perspective．Based on the cross analysis of farmers’ income diversity level and willingness of forest land transfer，this paper puts forward the theoretical analysis framework and research hypothesis，and establishes the Logit model of forest land circulation to carry on empirical analysis．

⑶ Results——The rate of forest land circulation from sample farmers is low．The willingness of circulation is weakly，the circulation is not standardized，and the awareness of forestry policy is low in the process of forest land circulation．There were significant differences in the status of households’ forest land transfer desire in different regions．In the cross analysis of farmers’ income diversity and the willingness of forest land circulation，the results show that there is no difference between the farmers who with the willingness of land transfer and the farmers who without the willingness for the index of single income diversity．For the comprehensive index，farmers’ willingness is significantly lower than the farmers who do not have the willingness to transfer forest land．In terms of frequency or probability，the willingness of farmers with single income to forest land circulation is higher than those with various sources of income．In the econometric analysis of farmers’ income diversity and willingness to transfer land，the age of the head of household，the number of non-agricultural jobs，the number of forest land，and the degree of difficulty in obtaining the mortgage are negatively affected the willingness of forest land circulation．Whether the head of the household is a party member，the number of cultivated land and the acquisition of harvesting indicators are positively affected the willingness of the farmers’ forest land circulation．With the improvement of household income diversification level，the probability that it will be transferred to the forest land will become smaller，and this effect is mainly reflected in the transfer model．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——This paper propose 3 following recommendations in order to promote the circulation of forest land and realize the moderate scale economy of forest land：Firstly，government should improve rural infrastructure and attract young people return home to start business．Secondly，government should rational distribution of cutting indicators on the basis of controlling the logging targets strictly，and encourage them to carry out specialized production biased in favor of new business entities．Finally，government should encourage farmers to carry out specialized production and continue to train new business entities．

Key words：farmer；forest land circulation；income diversity；Logit model

Original Articlein司亞偉，李旻．農(nóng)戶收入多樣性及對林地流轉(zhuǎn)意愿的影響：基于遼寧省清原縣的實(shí)證．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：17-22．

DOI：10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.004

Performance Evaluation of State-Owned Forest Farm in Inner MongoliaBased on Three-Stage DEA Model

ZHENG Jie1，F(xiàn)ENG Yan1，DAI Yongwu2

(1.School of Economics & Management，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing 100083 China；2.School of Management，F(xiàn)ujian Agriculture and Forestry University，F(xiàn)uzhou 350002 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——As an important part of China’s forestry management entity，state-owned forest farms play a fundamental and irreplaceable role in improving China’s natural environment and improving the level of economic development，which is of great significance to the realization of national forestry modernization and the construction of ecological civilization．However，due to a variety of reasons，China’s state-owned forest farms in the operation of long-term business performance and other issues．Therefore，it is necessary to make an objective and accurate evaluation of the performance of China’s state-owned forest farms，and provide realistic and theoretical reference for the reform of state-owned forest farms in China．

⑵ Methods——Data is mainly from Inner Mongolia Forestry Statistical Yearbook which is published by the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Forestry Department in 2015．Based on the three-stage DEA model，the production efficiency of 57 state-owned forest farms in 57 counties of Inner Mongolia was measured and analyzed．

⑶ Results——The production efficiency of state-owned forest farms in Inner Mongolia is influenced by environmental factors such as ecological location，traffic infrastructure，institutional environment and human capital．The better the ecological location，the more abundant the human capital of the state-owned forest，will help reduce the relaxation of its inputs；Improvements in the transport infrastructure will result in a reduction in the number of employed workers and the wasteland of forest land，while the improvement in investment in fixed assets and silvicultural production is not significant；The improvement of the institutional environment is conducive to improving the number of employees in employment，fixed assets and silviculture production，and the improvement of investment in forest area is not significant．After eliminating the environmental and stochastic factors，the comprehensive technical efficiency of the vast majority of state-owned forest farms has improved，the scale efficiency has also increased，but the pure technical efficiency has declined，the scale of the state to the decline in the scale of the main decline．Inner Mongolia state-owned forest farm as a whole the level of production efficiency is still low．From the spatial distribution situation，the comprehensive technical efficiency，pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency distribution of state-owned forest farms are basically the same，which shows that the efficiency value of the eastern region is relatively high，while the efficiency value of the central and western regions is relatively low．The state-owned forest farms with diminishing returns on scale show the spatial agglomeration effect，while the state-owned forest farms with increasing returns to scale are spatially distributed．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The ecological location has a significant effect on the efficiency of the state-owned forest farms．Institutional environmental factors are an effective means to motivate the enthusiasm of employees．The improvement of infrastructure not only requires the investment of state-owned forest farms，but also requires strong financial support from local or central government．The improvement of infrastructure is necessary to improve the performance of state-owned forest farms．For the “double high” state-owned forest，it is necessary to optimize the allocation of resources in all aspects to achieve the further improvement of the efficiency of state-owned forest farms，and for the existence of scale efficiency and low efficiency of state-owned forest farms，we should strengthen the short board to increase the state-owned forest management level，the transformation of state-owned forest farms inefficient situation．

Key words：Inner Mongolia；state-owned forest farm；production efficiency；three-stage DEA model

Original Articlein鄭潔，馮彥，戴永務(wù)．基于三階段DEA模型的內(nèi)蒙古國有林場績效評價(jià)研究．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：23-29．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.005

A Preliminary Study on the Development of Shareholding Family Forest Farm

LI Linsen1，WANG Yizhuo2，ZHANG Xurui3

(1.School of Accounting，Xijing University，Xi’an 710123 China；2.Department of Modern Service Management，Hebei Institute of Building Materials Technology，Qinhuangdao，Hebei 066004 China；3.School of Economics and Management，Northwest A&F University，Yangling，Shaanxi 712100 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Accelerating the fostering of new forestry management main body is necessary to change the way of forestry development．The effective way to promote the healthy development of modern forestry is taking the single-family households or households as a unit and then achieving the large-scale and intensive forest management and forest resources commercialization of the family forest．So the study of accelerating and promoting the development of shareholding family farms would be a subject worthy of further study．

⑵ Methods——Base on the method of literature analysis，this paper combed the fundamental sequence of origin and development of family forest，and explored the nature and characteristics theoretically of family forest farm．Then，exploring the family forest farm practically accorded to the actual research case．

⑶ Results——The mainly impacts of the shareholding system on the development of modern forestry are behaved in 3 aspects：the use of forest land resources and forest wood resources，land transfer and the construction of family forest farms．It can be concluded that shareholding family forest farm can combine the various types of forest land resources，formulate a unified plan and maximize the capabilities of forest land by analyzing the actual case．In meanwhile，implementing shareholding family forest farm can centralize the scattered forest wood resources，operate professionally and with large-scale，and then achieve the maximum value of forest resources market．The form of shareholding system allows the farmer to obtain the ultimate ownership of the share warrant and forest right certification．Consequently，implementing shareholding system in family forest farm would increase the farmers’ willingness of land circulation and the sense of participation．The internal organization system of shareholding family forest farm can not only ensure the decision-making efficiency of family management，but also allow investors to participate extensively．In this way，the investors can improve their enthusiasm and the decision-making accuracy．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The shareholding family forest farm，as an effective combination of capital combination to gain significant scale merit，applies the effective management of industrial management model to manage forestry．Implementing shareholding family forest farm would greatly improve the efficiency of forestry development．The shareholding family forest farm leads a modest scale of operation and breaks through the strength of modern forestry development and the management system of the innovative forestry．This paper propose some policy recommendations for developing shareholding family forest：Firstly，government should trumpet the shareholding system to family forestry farm in order to promote and raise farmers’ awareness；Secondly，government should support the cultivation of new forestry management main body and expand the typical sample of shareholding family forest；Thirdly，government should clear the relevant laws；Finally，government should carry out new business experimental sites for operating the forest management．In addition，different regions of the forestry production functions and industrial management would result in different needs and ways of establishing shareholding family forest farm．So shareholding family forest farm should be implement in different functional areas of forestry，such as the collective forest area in the south，the state-owned forest area in northeast China and the public forest area in the northwest public welfare forest．Partitioning method will make research more targeted and make suggested measures more specific．

Key words：shareholding system；family forest farm；modest scale；main body of new forestry management

Original Articlein李琳森，王毅卓，張旭銳．股份制家庭林場發(fā)展初探．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：30-34．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.006

Study on the Development Level of County’s State-Owned Forest Farms： Taking Hebei Province as an Example

WANG Meili，CHEN Wenhui

(School of Economics and Management，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing 100083 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——The state-owned forest farms play an important role in the construction of ecological civilization．With the promotion of forestry status and the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region，it is meaningful and urgent to estimate the development level of state-owned forest farms in Hebei province．Because the regional distribution differences of forest resources， state-owned forest farms are mostly located in remote districts or mountainous areas，this research，focusing on the overall development of state-owned forest farms from the county level，can not only help researchers further understand regional differences about forest farms development，but also provide a way to explore development characteristics of regional forest farms．

⑵ Methods——From the perspective of forest sustainable development，a county-level index system，aiming to determine the development level of state-owned forest farms，is set up，covering the target layer，system layer，index layer three levels of infrastructure．The index system includes 5 aspects，which are infrastructure condition system，self-development potential system，forest resource status system，social contribution system，economic development system，and 23 indicators．The data used in this paper come from the state-owned forest database．Based on index system and data，weights are designed by methods of expert scoring and entropy weight．Furthermore，the indexes are also processed by improved efficacy coefficient method and the total efficacy coefficient is calculated by linear weighted evaluation method to make sure the results are more reliable and valid．

⑶ Results——On the whole，the average development score of state-owned forest farms in Hebei province is 63.845，while the number of excellent forest farms is small．Therefore，demonstration forest farms with modern forest management need to set up in order to drive the forest farms’ development．Notably，the self-development potential system in these five aspects is the most ideal，with the score of 77.072，which shows that forest farms have great development potentials．Under the impetus of the reform of the state-owned forest farms，the workers’ wage and social insurance have been guaranteed，and the development potential of the forest farms will be further improved after the financial input and the stability of the forest get promoted．However，the social contribution system and the score relatively of forest resources status system are low，which suggests it’s necessary to improve the quality of forest resources to perform ecologically and socially in a better way．From a regional perspective，there is a significant difference in the scores of state-owned forest farms among different counties with a score range of 26.573．It is necessary to develop the demonstration function of the forest farm system，strengthen the exchange of forest farm management experience，and promote the coordinated development of the region．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——In conclusion，this paper studied the overall development of state-owned forest farms in Hebei Province from the county level，and applies the state-owned forest database’s data，revealing certain practical significance and innovation．Although the study of index system is relatively complete and scientific，and applied in most of Hebei state-owned forest farms，this research still has the following problems：On the one hand，the application of efficacy coefficient method can only relatively estimate the development level of state-owned forest farms in Hebei Province，but not evaluate it from the absolute sense；On the other hand，the system can only be used to calculate the development level of the ecological public welfare state-owned forest farms，but not the commercial forest farms．All these problems are needed to be further studied．

Key words：state-owned forest farms；index system；county；efficacy coefficient method

Original Articlein王美力，陳文匯．縣域國有林場發(fā)展水平測定研究：以河北省為例．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：35-40．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.007

Forest Tourism Development is Integrated into National Forest CityConstruction Research：Take the City of Ji’an in JiangxiProvince as an Example

ZHANG Ying

(Tourism and Air Services College，Inner Mongolia University for Nationalities，Tongliao，Inner Mongolia 028000 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Urban forest play an important role in urban ecosystem and it is an important organic carrier of urban ecological service function．Through scientific planning and development of urban forest，taking forest resources as an important carrier，a comprehensive optimization of urban tourism layout has become a sustainable goal for city．Based on the background of establishment of national forest city in Ji’an city，this paper makes a scientific evaluation of forest city construction and puts forward relevant countermeasures to develop the urban forest tourism．

⑵ Methods——Based on the relevant evaluation criteria and norms of the national forest city construction，the base statistic data which came from statistical yearbook data，China knowledge network database，forest resource inventory data，wetland resource survey data，wild animal and plant monitoring data，urban development planning and so on were used to evaluate the status of green space，the status of urban wetland resources，the status of biodiversity conservation，ecological footprint，etc．

⑶ Results——The urban green area of Ji’an city is 34.88 million m2；the greening area is 39.00 million m2；the green area of the park is 10.49 million m2；the rate of green land is 37.6%；the rate of green coverage is 42.1%；and the per capita park green space is 11.4 m2．Above-mentioned indexes are achieved the basic conditions for the creation of national forest city．The total area of wetlands in Ji’an city is 676.33 million m2and the wetland rate is 2.7%．Besides，the protected area of wetland is 234.53 million m2and the protection rate of wetland is 34.7%．There are more than 4 000 kinds of plants and over 1 000 species of wild animals in Ji’an city．Moreover，the construction of various nature reserves provide a good habitat for various animals and plants，and the establishment of various nature reserves play a great significance role in the construction of national forest city．Through the evaluation of ecological footprint，ecological deficit per capita of various land types are expressed in the order of descending：fossil energy land，cultivated land，grassland，water area，construction land．And the forest land is in surplus．Construction of national forest city could significantly improve the quality of urban ecological environment，optimize the urban ecological space structure，etc．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The results of this study show that the integrity and systematization are absent from the urban green space system in Ji’an city．Firstly，the planning of urban green space system does not combine closely with urban landscape，tourism resources and ecological culture．In addition，the comprehensive function of urban green space system and city comprehensive service function and contribution has not been fully reflected．Secondly，urban green space systems fall short of the conservation of biodiversity，landscape diversity and species diversity．Finally，the countermeasures for the development of forest tourism are put forward according to the background of national forest city construction：it is necessary to build a number of forest tourism demonstration destinations，perfect a number of forest tourism demonstration facilities，develop demonstration sites and enhance forest tourism service system project．In the process of creating national forest city，Ji’an city needs to rely on the construction of large urban data platform，integrate scientifically into the polity，ecology，economy，culture，society and other elements of science，so as to construct an urban and rural ecological network system，and ultimately to achieve construction goals of being national forest city．

Key words：forest city；wetland resources；urban green space；construction evaluation；forest tourism

Original Articlein張穎．森林旅游業(yè)發(fā)展融入國家森林城市建設(shè)研究．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：41-45．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.008

Research on Content Validity in Recreation Value of Forest Scenic Spots Using Contingent Value Method：A Case Study of National Forest Park in Fuzhou

DING Zhenmin，HUANG Xiujuan，ZHU Jiajia

(School of Management，F(xiàn)ujian Agriculture and Forestry University，F(xiàn)uzhou 35002 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Contingent value method(CVM)is an evaluation method based on virtual market for the value of public goods，but researchers lacked trust to the validity of CVM，so the accuracy of its assessment results is the focus of widespread controversy．Content validity，as an important aspect of CVM validity，aims to examine whether the question in the questionnaire can represent the content or subject remaining to be measured．Protest payment，which use for measuring interviewees’ understanding degree of questionnaire content，has gradually became one aspect of the research on the content validity of CVM．To some extent，protest payment can judge the content validity of CVM，when the authentic protest payment could be identified through effective methods and the probability of inconsistency of response to related question in the questionnaire could be determined．

⑵ Methods——This paper designs 3 non-protest payments of discrimination conditions．If each of the discrimination conditions can identify different type of “zero payment” and not be affected by other key variables，the type of“protest payment”can be identified well to some extent，and we can judge the content validity of CVM on assessment of forest recreation value．The Multinomial logistic model was applied for identification and inspection of protest payment，and then it was the logistic model that was made use of reasonable forecast about it based on the sample with only “zero payment”collected just at evaluation recreation value of scenic forest using CVM．

⑶ Results——The results showed that the types of “zero payment” can be effectively identified by the key variables and not be affected by other key variables．So we can infer that the content of the questionnaire can be well understood by the tourists and there is no indication that the visitors response questionnaire inconsistently for the majority．CVM has good content validity in the evaluation of the recreation value of Forest Scenic spot from a certain perspective．Individual characteristics of tourists have different effects on the payment of protest such as income，distance，sex and age．In the Logit model，the level of income has a significant positive impact on the level of “protest payments” at 10% significance level，because the high income earners bear more tax compared with others，and take it for granted that the government should pay for the improvement of the environment in forest park．Distance plays a negative impact on “protest payments” at 5% significance level，namely the closer to the forest park，the easier to choose to “protest payment” for tourists．But the correct probability of prediction of is 69.4% using logistic model which point out that the important factors that influence the protest payment remain to be further identified and verified．In terms of content validity，CVM can be introduced into the evaluation of recreational value of forest scenic spots，but other validity of CVM should also be considered．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Although we never deny that CVM has good content validity in the evaluation of the recreation value of Forest Scenic spot from a certain perspective，there are some improvements in the design of the questionnaire though our research．Therefor we can make the following improvements to the questionnaire according to the results of the study．In the course of the design of the questionnaire，we can design the “tax rate” or “tax amount” option，which is used to judge whether the deep reason of the protest payment for high income earners due to their sensibility to personal income tax．

Key words：contingent value method；forest scenic spot；recreational value；sample of non-payment；protest payment；Multinomial logistic model

Original Articlein丁振民，黃秀娟，朱佳佳．CVM在評價(jià)森林景區(qū)游憩價(jià)值內(nèi)容效度的檢驗(yàn)：以福州國家森林公園為例．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：46-50．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.009

Forest Right Mortgage，Credit Constraint and Farmers’ Credit Availability：Based on a Static Game Model

JIN Yinliang

(1.College of Economics and Management，Nanjing Forestry University，Nanjing 210037 China；2.Taizhou College，Nanjing Normal University，Taizhou，Jiangsu 225300 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Forest right mortgage is an important measure to enhance the level of forestry management，promote the efficiency of forestry management and increase the income of farmers．As a small-scale farmers，the credit transmission mechanism is not perfect，the risk of forestry management is high，so the credit constraint which simply using the forest resources as the mortgage is difficult to improve．And most banks have set up stringent conditions on forest mortgages，thus common farmers still obtain loans difficultly．

⑵ Methods——Assuming that the participated subjective is rational，the information is complete，the obtaining process has no cost and the delivery procedure is full and correct，thus the objective function of bank consider the security of the loan in order to maximize the benefits．The income function of forest farmers is to obtain loans．If the assumed conditions meet the requirements，the game could be balanced(lending，repayment)．In the single-stage game model，banks can not raise interest rates to obtain high returns．Therefore，banks are forced to develop a lower level of the interest rate and select the forest farmers with better credit in order to encourage them to invest the loans into forestry．In the dynamic and repeated game，the speed and quality of information transmission has been further enhanced，banks and farmers will form a long-term cooperative relationship．

⑶ Results——Banks and other financial institutions put limitations on forest farmers loans in order to reduce their own business risks．If without interest rate control，banks can not refuse forest farmers(low credit level)to apply loans by increasing interest rates．So this practice would enhance the reverse selection and moral hazard．Forest resources can be used as collateral，which could improve the information transmission mechanism and credibility of forest farmers，reduce the level of credit constraints，but it must be built on the corresponding policies issued by government and other institutions．The effect would not be obvious if they simply rely forest resources as asset collateral to ease credit constraints．The paper makes certain definitions of forest mortgage and credit policy，weather they belong to the market behavior or welfare behavior．If they belong to the market behavior，we should focus on increasing the quantities of rural financial products that supply to small and medium financial institutions，designing credit products，controlling interest rates and so on．In addition，we should define the threshold set for rural small and medium financial institutions and liberalize the interest rate market．If they belong to welfare behavior，we should improve the loan mechanism especially the micro-loans system and emphasize the inclusive and non-profitability of micro-loans．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The rural financial market needs improvement in scale，convenience and the ability of monitoring．The conditions of loans that applicable to enterprises may not be able to develop in the rural market．However，compared with the urban areas，the social nature of rural acquaintances have increased the quality and speed of transmission of some information．Therefore，it is possible to construct a group loan model，with the core of social capital，which builds on the funds organizations and credit guarantee institutions of banks and cooperation between credit and loans．Therefore，it would alleviate the credit constraints of rural financial markets．The government’s role in the credit market can not be ignored．The government should continue to play a role in the provision of public resources such as forest resource assessment，evaluation，forest fire insurance，forest road， and so on．If we transfer part of the risks that beard by the banks and other financial institutions to government departments，it will strengthen the willingness and encouragement of the supply of bank credit resources．

Key words：forest rights mortgage；credit constraint；credit availability

Original Articlein金銀亮．林權(quán)抵押、信貸約束與林農(nóng)信貸可得性：基于一個(gè)靜態(tài)博弈模型的分析．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：51-54．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.010

Policy Evolution and Prospects of China’s Policy Forestry Insurance：Based on the Central Document of No.1

LI Wenhui，ZHANG Liangang

(School of Economics and Management，Southwest Forestry University，Kunming 650224 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Forestry is an important industry for national economy，but it is full of risks at the same time．In China，forestry insurance began to pursue in 1982．Forest is the protective object for forestry insurance，meanwhile，forest is a quasi-public object with external effects．If the market of forestry insurance was only adjusted by means of the market economy condition，the phenomenon of market failure would be appeared．Therefore，the government needs to intervene and give certain subsidies for forestry insurance．So policy forestry insurance appeared in China．

⑵ Methods——This paper analyzed the achievements of policy forestry insurance by means of collecting and arranging the documents．In addition，in order to realize the rapid development of forestry，based on the perspective of central document of No.1，this paper combed the contents from 13 central documents of No.1 and found out the tendency of China’s policy forest insurance．

⑶ Results——In China，the central document of No.1 which related to policy forestry insurance was recorded in 2004．The contents about policy forest insurance on the central documents of No.1 mainly involve the following aspects．Firstly，the government should expand the scope of premium subsidies．From 1982 to 2016，forest insurance policy had mainly reflected in 3 aspects included the scope of subsidies keep on expanding，the increasing subsidies in Midwest China and the increased forest insurance subsidies by encouraging all levels of governments．Secondly，the policy forestry insurance has adopted the approach of pursuing policy forest insurance after setting pilot．Policy forestry insurance had developed rapidly from 2009 to 2016 with the No.1 central document implemented and the related policy guided，which promoted the implementation of policy forestry insurance．Thirdly，the government should explore the establishment of catastrophe risk diversification mechanism．From 2007 to 2016，the contents about the establishment of catastrophe risk diversification mechanism on the central documents of No.1 had mainly reflected in 2 aspects which included established the reinsurance system of forestry insurance，and a catastrophe risk diversification mechanism which was established by governments at all levels subsidizing forestry insurance．Finally，the government should explore mutual insurance．The application of mutual insurance in forestry make the common interest relationship among members form a mutual supervision mechanism．This mutual supervision mechanism would help to prevent the occurrence of moral hazard and adverse selection，and cut the information cost and supervision cost．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Some policy implications are derived in this paper．Firstly，the government should strengthen the construction of information sharing mechanism．It can take corresponding preventive measures to protect the forest resources and the interests of forest farmers．Secondly，the government should strengthen the construction of supporting measures of policy forestry insurance such as technically training organization，forestry exploration organization，etc．Thirdly，the government should perfect the subsidy policy of forestry insurance in 2 aspects included compensated costs of insurance companies，expanded the scope of subsidies．Finally，the government should perfect the mechanism of catastrophe risk dispersion．The effective dispersing mechanism of catastrophic risk should disperse the pressure of catastrophic risk losses and promote sustainable development of forestry．

Key words：policy forest insurance；the central document of No.1；policy evolution

Original Articlein李文會(huì)，張連剛．中國政策性森林保險(xiǎn)的政策演進(jìn)與展望：基于中央“一號文件”的政策回顧．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：55-59．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.011

Policy Recommendations of Break through Barriers to ForestryFinance Development in China

DING Jianchen，ZHAO Dandan

(University of International Business and Economics，School of Banking & Finance，Beijing 100029 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Forestry has 5 functions，includes ecology function，economy function，society function，carbon sink function and culture function．The experience of domestic and abroad shows that forestry financial service is the essential for developing forestry economy．At present，there are many problems in forestry finance in China，such as lack of system，institutional bias，shortage of funds，limited financial tools and low quality of service，which have seriously affected the development and progress of forestry．So it is very urgent to put forward relevant policy recommendations．

⑵ Methods——Based on both the theory and data analysis，this paper introduces main barriers to the forestry finance development in China．From the perspective of institutional economics，this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to develop China’s forestry finance．The research data mainly comes from forestry development reports released by the State Forestry Administration of the People’s Republic of China．

⑶ Results——Firstly，the ability to serve the real forestry economy is limited．The funds needed for the forestry tending was 450 billion yuan in 2009，but the shortage of funds for agriculture and forestry was about 200 billion yuan．The funding gap for forestry tending，ecological protection，and forestry stability construction is huge．Secondly，forestry finance has congenital weakness which result in difficulties in attracting social investment．The weakness of forestry finance mainly includes the shortage of forestry financial institutions，the lack of forestry financial tools，and the abnormalities of forestry financial market．The forestry finance is seriously disengaged from the forestry economy．Thirdly，the defects of forestry financial system design are obvious．Since the financial system in New China was constructed with the center of rural land reform，and the support from government for forestry finance is less．Fourthly，the operating targets of forestry financial institutions have been deviated．There is a vacancy in specialized forestry financial institutions for a long time，in meanwhile，a large number of relevant financial institutions withdrawn．Fifthly，the environment of forestry financial market steadily deteriorated．The foreign investment in forestry industry is 6.369 billion yuan，accounting for only 0.87 percent of the foreign direct investment．Up to July 2016，there are merely 3 forestry companies listed of the top 30 listed agriculture，forestry，animal husbandry and fishery companies．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——This paper puts forward the policy recommendations for the development of China’s forestry finance．Firstly，innovation of forestry finance system in China should be accelerated．The innovation measures for forestry finance system include strengthening the basic work of government on the transfer payment to forestry finance，and establishing fair and inclusive forestry financial system．Secondly，the project of policy forestry financial construction should be started．So the government should promote the policy forestry insurance pilot，improve the forestry financial trading environment，etc．Thirdly，in order to effectively reduce the risk of banking and forestry investors，the government should improve anti-risk ability of forestry enterprises and farmers．Fourthly，the government should deal with the relationship between ecological protection and the interest of forest farmers with establishing the compensation mechanism of ecological protection，and reasonably compensating the rights of forestry owners．Fifthly，the government should actively set up the forestry development fund in China．Based on the successful experience of foreign countries’ forestry development，it is necessary for China to actively set up the forestry development fund to improve the allocation efficiency of forestry resources under the background of market economy，which is by all means to promote the healthy and sustainable development of forestry．

Key words：forestry finance；barriers；policy recommendations

Original Articlein丁建臣，趙丹丹．突破中國林業(yè)金融發(fā)展壁壘的政策建議．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：60-62．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.012

Status and Characteristics of China’s Wooden Forest Products Trade Development

ZHANG Shaobo，TIAN Minghua，YU Haoliang，HU Mingxing，WANG Chunbo，LIU Yi

(School of Economics and Management，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing 100083 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——With the increasing economic development，China has became a major countries of wooden forest products trade in the world．Mastering the developmental status and characteristics of China’s wooden forest products trade are propitious to work out relevant industry policy and trade policy．

⑵ Methods——The data for this paper were main from China Forestry Development Report 2016 which published by State Forestry Administration and FAO Yearbook of Forest Products 2014 which published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)．This paper analyzed the trade actualities and characteristics of China’s wooden forest products through the methods of comparative analysis，concentration ratio，net barter terms of trade，etc．

⑶ Results——Based on the data of China’s wooden forest products trade，China’s wooden forest products trade has the following characteristics．Firstly，the annual growth rate of wooden forest products imports and exports in China from 1993 to 2015 are 12.52% and 18.45% much higher than in world．Secondly，the scale of wood forest products import and export in China are large and account for a high proportion in the world．Thirdly，China’s wooden forest products trade has undergone a process from a trade deficit to a trade surplus．The trade surplus began to expand in 2008 and reached $8.883 billion in 2014，then rose to $14.636 billion in 2015，which shows fairly large compared with other countries．Fourthly，importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods are obviously characteristics of China’s wooden forest products trade．Fifthly，the product structures of import and export are highly concentrated．The imports of wooden forest products in China were mainly paper pulp，round wood，sawn wood，recovered paper，paper and paperboard．The products of paper pulp，round wood，sawn wood，recovered paper，paper and paperboard accounted for 90.46% of the total imports of China’s wooden forest products in 2015．The exports of wooden forest products in China were mainly furniture，paper and paperboard，woodwork，plywood and fiberboard．The products of furniture，paper and paperboard，woodwork，plywood and fiberboard accounted for 98.11% of the total exports of China’s wooden forest products in 2015．Sixthly，the market structures of import and export are also concentrated at a relatively high level．The top 5 import trade partners(included the United States，Canada，Russia，Brazil，Indonesia)for China accounted for 50.15% of total imports，and the top 5 export trade partners(included the United States，Japan，Hong Kong，Britain，Australia)accounted for 48.22% of total exports in 2015．Seventhly，due to the price of imported products rising，the terms of import trade tends to deteriorate．The import products as wood pulp，round wood，sawn wood，recovered paper account for 80.72% of total imports in 2015．Meanwhile，due to the value of export products reducing，the terms of export trade tends to deteriorate．Products with low added value，such as furniture，plywood，fiberboard，account for 54.77% of total exports in 2015．Products with deteriorating terms of export trade，such as furniture，plywood，fiberboard，paper and paperboard，accounted for 86.23% of total exports in 2015．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——China should appropriately control the trade growth rate and trade scale of wooden forest products，and pay attention to the trade balance of wooden forest products．The current mode of processing trade should be changed，because the profits were very little and China was accused of destroying the world’s forest resources．China should improve the domestic supply of timber resources，and scatter the supply channels of imported timber．The import and export product structure and market structure also should be optimized．The quantity competition and price competition should be replaced with the quality competition and brand competition．China should take the connotation development path with benefit first．

Key words：wooden forest products；international trade；processing trade；product structure；market structure

Original Articlein張少博，田明華，于豪諒，等．中國木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀與特點(diǎn)分析．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：63-69．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.013

Impact of Countervailing Duty Investigation and Antidumping Duty Investigation on Chinese Wood Flooring Exports Enterprises：An Empirical Analysis

JIANG Hongfei，CHEN Yong

(Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information，Chinese Academy of Forestry，Beijing 100091 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Since 2010，the US initiated countervailing duty(CVD)investigation and antidumping duty(AD)investigation of wood flooring from China．AD/CVD laws are administered jointly by the US International Trade Commission and the US Department of Commerce．Since 2010 until the paper release，the investigations have gone through the process of prosecution，filing，preliminary ruling，verification and arbitration，administrative review，etc．The final determinations for total duties rate for the first time issued in October 2011 is below 5%，while the following results of annual review of total duties rates alleged from July 2015，doubled compared with results of 2011 and kept upward trend．

⑵ Methods——In this paper，a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model，the Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)model and GTAP Database were used to simulated the unfavorable impact for Chinese wood flooring producer after the duties rates alleged，such as the increase in cost of production．Based on standard GTAP static model，four scenarios like 5%，10%，15% and 20% increase of the duties rates alleged on Chinese wood products were simulated．

⑶ Results——The simulation results show that，the duties rates alleged can lower the Chinese domestic prices of wood products to reduce the supply of Chinese wood products to the US，cause China unfavorable trade balance with US．As the higher level of the duties rates alleged，the more negative effect of shocks on the export，the domestic production and the prices of Chinese wood products kept downward trend．When the duties rate reach 20%，it can effectively reduce the exports，the domestic production and the domestic prices of Chinese wood products by 8%，17% and 0.6%，and can lower the American import of Chinese wood products by 1.8%，Chinese trade deficit with US can reach 9.4 billon USD．After the analysis of comparison between the decline in margin of Chinese domestic production and Chinese export based the same level of duties rates alleged，the simulation results indicated the China rely the most on trade with the US．Since China and the US as the largest developing country and developed countries in the world，and as the largest two trade bodies in the world in addition to the European Union，the change of the behavior of production and consumption between the two countries could also have a deep global impact．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Because of the low brand awareness and serious product homogeneity in a part of Chinese wood flooring exports enterprises，even lack of sustainable profitability，and some profit growth of enterprises depends on state financial support or price support like the export tax rebate，they can easily become the target or object of CVD and AD investigations．It was suggested that based on a better understanding on the determinants international trade rules，Chinese wood flooring producers should pay attention to the value of products and brand innovation，enhance the competitiveness of products，meanwhile they should establish a due diligence system and keep the supply chain of legality and traceability in response to the similar trade investigations，then the trade relationship of wood products between China and US could become more free and active．

Key words：CVD and AD investigations；wood flooring；the United States；GTAP model

Original Articlein蔣宏飛，陳勇．中國輸美木地板企業(yè)遭遇雙反調(diào)查的影響實(shí)證分析．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：70-73．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.014

Heterogeneous Factors from Family Effect Tea Oil Purchase Behavior of City Residents

LU Sulan1，HUANG Peifeng2

(1.College of Economics，F(xiàn)ujian Agriculture and Forestry University，F(xiàn)uzhou 350002 China；2.School of Management，F(xiàn)ujian University of Technology，F(xiàn)uzhou 350118 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——Social basis and demographic characteristics of tea oil(CamelliaoleiferaAbel.)purchasing，teaoilisoneofthemainwoodyplantsedibleoil，hascausedwideconcerninscholars．Currentresearchresultsaboutteaoilpurchasingstilllackofrepresentationandpersuasion．Teaoilisusuallypurchasedbyhouseholdslikeasotheroils，butinalongtimefewresearchpaidattentiontotheimpactoffamilyheterogeneityonteaoilpurchasebehavior．

⑵ Methods——Independent-sample T-test，variance analysis and Scheffe multiple comparison procedure were adopted to analyze the data of field survey．The data was collected from household questionnaire surveys on tea oil purchase behavior in Guangzhou，Changsha and Fuzhou by the research group which following the significant research subject“Demand and Supply Change Investigation on Main Woody Grain and Oil”issued by State Forestry Administration in 2015．Restricted by various factors，the research group has to select Changsha，F(xiàn)uzhou and Guangzhou 3 city from 14 provinces to carry out household surveys on tea oil purchase behavior．

⑶ Results——Analyzing the effect of heterogeneous factors from family on tea oil purchase behavior，the results suggest that 4 factors as number of family members，severe illness history，whether there are 60 or above elderly people in the family and the education level of the main purchasers in the family have no obvious difference in tea oil purchase behavior；and 5 factors as whether there are children under 12 years old in the family，the age of family purchaser，gender of family purchaser，family income and family types have significant difference in tea oil purchase behavior．The method of Scheffe multiple comparison procedure was used to further analyze the effect of heterogeneous factors from family on tea oil purchase behavior．The results show that there is significant difference between gender and purchase behavior．Women were more likely to choose tea oil than men．The reason for this phenomena is probably that women are mainly responsible for the daily life in Chinese family，they would spend more time in collecting food information，pay more attention to the price of oil and the nutrition level，makes women more likely to choose to tea oil．The mean value of oil consumption in residents of different ages was a inverted U-shaped distribution where groups of 31 to 40 years old and 41 to 50 years old more favored tea oil．The principal reason for this phenomena is that the group of 31-50 years old is the groups of highest income，and most of them have children that they would more concern about their children’s health．Family type showed significant differences in tea oil purchasing．The ratio of multi-generation family in tea oil purchasing was significantly higher than families of three，families of two and those living alone．Compared with residents with higher income，families with per capita annual income less than 5 000 yuan and between 5 000 yuan and 10 000 yuan were less likely to buy tea oil．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Tea oil purchasing behavior shows family feature with obvious Chinese characteristics．To master these family feature would help tea oil relevant enterprises to develop and carry out marketing strategy，publicity and education to families especially focusing on multi-generation families．Because multi-generation families pays great attention to their children’s health，and their strong purchasing ability were strong，so they were the main group of tea oil purchasing．Relevant business management should implement targeted marketing plan and support．Moreover，women as well as the group of 30 to 50 years old should not be neglected．

Key words：heterogeneous factors from family；city residents；tea oil；purchases

Original Articlein盧素蘭，黃培鋒．家庭異質(zhì)性因素對城市家庭茶油購買行為的影響．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：74-80．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.015

Impacts of the Aging Labor Force on Technical Efficiency of BambooProduction

YANG Shuisheng1，XU Xiuying1，2，F(xiàn)U Jiaoyan1，XU Jinhan1

(1.School of Economic and Management，Zhejiang A&F University，Lin’an，Zhejiang 311300 China；2.Rural Development Research Center of Zhejiang，Lin’an，Zhejiang 311300 China)

Abstract

⑴ Background——With the acceleration of urbanization process in China，structure of rural labor force has undergone tremendous changes．The accelerated outflow of rural youth labor force result a large number of old labor force engaged in agricultural production in rural areas．The aging of labor force has an important influence on the development of rural economy．So it is necessary to improve forestry production technical efficiency through clarify the relationship between the aging of labor force and forestry production．

⑵ Methods——This research selected bamboo as the object of research，people above 60 years old as an indicator of the aging of labor force and 6 administrative villages in Anji County as the study area．Then 120 households were selected for questionnaires in July 2015，and 101 valid questionnaires were got．Among the valid questionnaires，243 bamboo plots were surveyed in detail．Subsequently，the translog stochastic frontier production function was measured by frontier software．This research discussed the following questions：Firstly，whether the aging of labor force affecting the bamboo production technical efficiency or not？Secondly，what are factors affecting the bamboo production technical efficiency？

⑶ Results——The results of likelihood ratio hypothesis testing imply that：The Cobb-Douglas production function is not suitable for this research，and the bamboo production technical efficiency changes were affected by some environmental variables．According to the results of the translog stochastic frontier production function，the input of labor factor，land factor and capital factor had a significant positive influence on the output of bamboo．Bamboo output capacity per unit area with high in Anji County，but there exists excess labor with the increasing labor input and capital use degree are not high．The error of stochastic frontier production function model was aroused mainly by technical efficiency loss，and the output elasticity of labor factor，land factor and capital factor were 0.249 2，0.358 9，0.252 8 respectively．According to the result of technical efficiency model，the bamboo production average technical efficiency was only 66.68%．If the elimination of technical efficiency loss，the bamboo production technical efficiency had 33.32% of the room for technical efficiency enhancement．Because of the aging effect of labor force exceeds the empirical effect，the aging of labor force had a significant negative influence on the bamboo production technical efficiency．In control variables，the proportion of bamboo income to total household income，family labor scale and the bamboo land was leased had different degrees of significant positive impact on the bamboo production technical efficiency；the number of bamboo plots had a significant negative impact on bamboo production technical efficiency．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——To summarize，3 suggestions are proposed referring to stimulate and improve the production efficiency in bamboo sector．Firstly，local government should actively guide farmers to increase capital investment in bamboo production so as to allocate bamboo production factors rationally．And extend the bamboo production chain，improve bamboo production technical efficiency so as to increase farmers’income．Secondly，local government should encourage farmers to transfer forestland in order to reduce the fragmentation of bamboo forestland and realize the scale of forestland management．Lastly，local government should increase the human capital investment of rural labor force and strengthen technical training for farmers’bamboo production，establish and improve rural social security system．

Key words：aging labor force；technical efficiency of bamboo production；trans-log stochastic frontier production function；Anji county

Original Articlein楊水生，徐秀英，符椒燕，等．勞動(dòng)力老齡化對竹林生產(chǎn)技術(shù)效率的影響．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：81-87．

DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.016

Reflections on the Discipline Construction of Forestry Economy

LI Zhou

(Rural Development Institute，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences，Beijing 100732 China)

Abstract

⑴ Discipline construction goes hand in hand with scientific research．In a narrow sense，scientific research refers to explore increments of knowledge，correct understanding bias of knowledge，update knowledge，and improve and perfect the systems of knowledge within an existing discipline system．In a broad sense，scientific research in further refers to explain the phenomena and solve the problems in the real world by using the existing discipline knowledge．In terms of discipline construction，it is the activities to add the new understanding and achievements obtained from the scientific researches into the discipline system．The task of discipline construction is to perfect the discipline system，to precise the discipline knowledge，to make it possible to explain more economic phenomena and solve more economic problems，and to make it more understandable and easier to use．The driving force of discipline construction comes from the curiosity and responsibility of teachers and researchers．

⑵ The content of discipline construction includes testing and verifying，improving，updating and extending the existing knowledge，creating new knowledge，and upgrading knowledge system．For instance，upgrading the knowledge system from sustainable use of timber to the eco-function of forest system and the sustainable use of landscape and services；improving the scientific method from experience approach to experimental approach；improving the data use from predicting the future based on historic data to forecasting the future based on constantly updated big data；improving from induction of discipline progress to deduction of discipline outlook，and from China’s evidence to China’s experience and paradigm．

⑶ To carry out discipline construction，the first step is making a discipline construction scheme；the second step is organizing a discipline construction team，and the third step is establishing an incentive mechanism．The discipline construction must base on local practices．In Chinese contexts，many statements are similar，but the practices are quite different．By comparing those differences，one can gains various evidences，find various wisdoms，reach various conclusions，and draw various paradigms．

⑷ The phased，orderly and achievable of the discipline construction should be considered．The team leaders should be seriously selected．The team structure should be elaborated and the team should be dynamically optimized．The discipline construction tasks should be determined, pre-research subjects should be set up，literature reviews should be conducted，and methodologies should be evaluated．Discipline construction would be adjusted and readjusted，which include those in the scheme，plans，and paths of discipline construction and the team leaders and members of discipline construction．

⑸ At present，China has the largest team of professional staffs in the world conducting forestry economy research．Therefore，we should have the advantages to reach the target of discipline construction-innovation in the paradigm of forestry economy research．

Key words：forestry economy；discipline construction；scientific research

Original Articlein李周．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)科建設(shè)的思考．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(3)：88-96．

⑴ Background——Natural forest protection project was launched in 2000．Through establishing the “3+X” green industrial system，Yichun forest region promoted the adjustment of economic structure from resource consumption to ecological protection．After full stopping commercial logging of natural forests，forest leading industry occurred a “cliff-type”shrinking，so that the structure of forest economic needs to adjust quickly．Faced with the influence of double pressures from economic income reduction and economic transformation，developing under-forest economy has become an important measure and an inevitable choice for the economic transformation in Yichun forest region．

⑵ Methods——The research object is the developments of under-forest economy in Yichun．Internet，professional books，academic journals and other ways were used to collect the research data and to understand the research trends of under-forest economy development through reviewing the literature both at home and abroad．This paper analyzes the present situation，characteristics，constraints and countermeasures of under-forest economy development in Yichun forest region by using theoretical analysis and qualitative analysis methods based on the theories of modern forestry economics and other related theories．

⑶ Results——The diversified development mode，developing characteristic industries，the preliminary industrial chain，industrial layout be more reasonable，set up diversified production base，brand building with highlighted regional characteristics and popularizing technology around characteristic industries were the present situation and main characteristics of under-forest economy development in Yichun state-owned forest areas．Through analyzing the problems(include developing with smaller scale，relatively extensive management，shortage of talent，etc．)and the constraints(such as systems，policies，funds，raw materials，technology，and ideas)in developing under-forest economy，based on the strategic choice，this paper puts forward the following measures：firstly，developing the under-forest economy should adhere to the priority of ecological protection，take full account of the carrying capacity of forests and the environment according to the laws of ecological balance，and rationally exploiting and utilizing forest resources under the premise of strict protection of forest resources；secondly，government should carefully cultivate new business entities，improve the interests of the link mechanism，and constantly innovative production and management model；thirdly，government should strengthen scientific and technological support，establish a contingent of technical personnel；fourthly，strengthening the supervision of the whole industry chain to ensure product quality and safety，playing the role of government guidance，increasing policy support；enterprises should expand the brand effect，improv product brand influence；etc．

⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Under the premise of protecting the ecological environment，developing the under-forest economy，expanding the channels for the employment，increasing workers’ income and promoting the green transformation of the state-owned forest areas are effective ways to promote the sustainable development of the state-owned forest areas．In order to make these countermeasures more targeted，it is necessary to find out the existing problems through benefit analysis，and give further in-depth analysis and discussion by establishing a scientific and reasonable data model．

state-owned forest areas；under forest economy；economic transition；rational development；sustainable development

10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.03.016

2017-06-09

作者簡介：李周(1952-)，男，上海人，研究員，從事農(nóng)林經(jīng)濟(jì)管理方面的研究，(E-mail)lizhou1952@163.com。

G423.04

A

1005-9709(2017)03-0088-09