涓流細(xì)雨

“This is the fi rst time we will get short-term forecasts of what the changes at the surface of the Earth will be. We can tell a powergrid customer not only that it will be a bad day, but give them some heads-up on what exactly they will be facing.”

“這是我們即將第一次給出地球表面將要發(fā)生什么變化的短期預(yù)報(bào)。我們不僅能夠告知電力網(wǎng)客戶壞天氣，還能準(zhǔn)確警告他們將面對(duì)什么。”

——美國(guó)NOAA借助其最新研制的更為復(fù)雜的下一代空間天氣預(yù)報(bào)模式，準(zhǔn)備將空間天氣預(yù)報(bào)從1D提升到2D，即給出太陽(yáng)風(fēng)暴風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)的分布?？臻g天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心首席預(yù)報(bào)員Bob Rutledge如上解釋了新預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品對(duì)供電網(wǎng)安全的意義所在。

“The Met Office had meteorological observers stationed at the front from 1915, providing critical meteorological information which impacted not only allied operations and also warning of conditions which would enable the enemy to launch gas attacks themselves. The operational forecasts proved to be highly important and after what was one of the only allied advances during the battle of Passchendaele one of the senior allied commanders sent a telegraph to Meteor R. E. to thank them for their accurate forecasts which had proven of great assistance in planning the operation.”

“自1915年開(kāi)始，英國(guó)氣象局在前線派駐氣象觀測(cè)員提供關(guān)鍵氣象信息，這些信息不僅和氣象業(yè)務(wù)聯(lián)系在一起，還可以在敵方可能發(fā)生毒氣攻擊的天氣條件時(shí)做出警報(bào)。業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)報(bào)被證明非常重要，在唯一的聯(lián)合攻擊戰(zhàn)役中的巴雪戴爾戰(zhàn)役后，聯(lián)合指揮官致電氣象預(yù)報(bào)人員，感謝他們提供的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)報(bào)，在戰(zhàn)役計(jì)劃階段幫助極大。”

——從1916年10月24日開(kāi)始，英國(guó)氣象局開(kāi)始不間斷地向英軍方提供氣象預(yù)報(bào)。近日，英國(guó)氣象局隆重紀(jì)念其為軍方提供氣象預(yù)報(bào)信息100周年。英國(guó)氣象局檔案保管員Catherine Ross回憶起該局在第一次世界大戰(zhàn)期間為英國(guó)軍隊(duì)服務(wù)時(shí)的情景。

“Barriers to zero emissions don’t come from science: they are economic, social and political. The new IPCC focus will be to help to overcome these barriers through scientif i c analysis.”

“零排放的障礙并非來(lái)自科學(xué)，這些障礙源自經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和政治。新的IPCC評(píng)估報(bào)告的要點(diǎn)就是要通過(guò)科學(xué)分析幫助克服這些障礙?！?/p>

——2016年8月，“跨越IPCC工作組氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和可持續(xù)的解決方案綜合研究：汲取AR5經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)支持AR6”學(xué)術(shù)會(huì)議在斯德哥爾摩舉行，這次會(huì)議吹響了IPCC在2014年完成AR5評(píng)估后新一輪評(píng)估開(kāi)始的號(hào)角。IPCC主席Hoesung Lee在會(huì)議開(kāi)幕式上針對(duì)新評(píng)估做出了上述表述。

“Julia, and her predecessors in the role, have all been such passionate ambassadors of the world-leading science we do here at the Met Off i ce. I'm thrilled to have the opportunity to follow in their footsteps and maintain this great tradition. I am looking forward to nurturing the scientific excellence in Met Office Science and integrating that excellence into the UK’s broader world-leading weather and climate science to develop services for the maximum benef i t to society.”

“朱莉婭和她的前任們都成為了我們?cè)跉庀缶炙鶑氖碌氖澜珙I(lǐng)先科學(xué)工作的熱情的大使。我很激動(dòng)有這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)追尋他們的足跡，并延續(xù)這一恢宏傳統(tǒng)。我期待呵護(hù)氣象局卓越的科學(xué)事業(yè)并融合成為英國(guó)更廣泛的福祉，讓社會(huì)最大化受益于天氣和氣候科學(xué)?！?/p>

——英國(guó)氣象局認(rèn)命Stephen Belcher教授為該局新的首席科學(xué)家，原首席科學(xué)家Dame Julia Slingo退休。作為首席科學(xué)家，Stephen將與該局科學(xué)局長(zhǎng)Andy Brown合作，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)和管理研發(fā)工作。Stephen在上任之際做了上述表達(dá)。

“Every year, wildf i res affect nature, people, their homes and businesses. While the progress of a fi re itself is hard to predict, this new service from SAP, leveraging satellite data from ESA, allows us to accurately calculate costs and risks related to wildf i res and even gain insights into the future probability of wildf i res.”

“每年野火都在影響環(huán)境、人類(lèi)生活、居住地和商業(yè)。雖然野火過(guò)程本身的預(yù)測(cè)很難，但SAP的新服務(wù)借助了ESA的衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)，讓我們可以準(zhǔn)確計(jì)算與野火相關(guān)的成本和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，甚至啟發(fā)我們認(rèn)識(shí)未來(lái)野火發(fā)生的可能性?！?/p>

——2016年11月，一家國(guó)際軟件公司SAP與歐空局合作，推出地球觀測(cè)分析服務(wù)。該服務(wù)借助SAP的Hana平臺(tái)以云服務(wù)的形式提供。兩家機(jī)構(gòu)從年初開(kāi)始合作，致力于將分析平臺(tái)與ESA的地球觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)，特別是哥白尼項(xiàng)目的數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合起來(lái)，形成新的商業(yè)服務(wù)產(chǎn)品。慕尼黑再保險(xiǎn)公司地理空間解決方案部門(mén)負(fù)責(zé)人Andreas Siebert用上述話語(yǔ)評(píng)價(jià)了這項(xiàng)合作研究會(huì)帶來(lái)什么。

“The entire scientific community is mourning the sudden and untimely loss of this great leader who has been unexpectedly removed from the forefront of the scientif i c issues that matter most to the future well-being of society, Ralph Cicerone was a model for all of us of not only doing what counts, but doing it with honesty, integrity, and deep passion.”

“整個(gè)科學(xué)界都在為這位偉大學(xué)術(shù)領(lǐng)頭人的突然和過(guò)早離世而悲傷，他意外離開(kāi)，留下的科學(xué)問(wèn)題前沿事關(guān)未來(lái)社會(huì)福祉，Ralph Cicerone是我們大家的楷模，從事科學(xué)工作不是就事論事，而是要像他那樣將正直、誠(chéng)懇和深深的熱情投入其中?！?/p>

——美國(guó)科學(xué)院（NAS）2016年11月5日宣布，美國(guó)大氣化學(xué)家、NAS前院長(zhǎng)Ralph J. Cicerone不幸去世，享年73歲。NAS稱Cicerone是科學(xué)領(lǐng)袖和世界知名的大氣化學(xué)和氣候變化權(quán)威。Cicerone曾在2005—2006年任NAS院長(zhǎng)，他的繼任者M(jìn)arcia McNutt談到Cicerone時(shí)，用上述語(yǔ)言表達(dá)了對(duì)亡者的無(wú)限悲痛和尊敬。

“Today, we can’t see what’s happening under the rain, we can measure the wind outside of the storm cell with present systems. But there’s a gap in our knowledge of cyclone processes in the critical eyewall region of the storm — a gap that will be fi lled by the CYGNSS data. The models try to predict what is happeningunder the rain, but they are much less accurate without continuous experimental validation…”

“今天，我們還無(wú)法看到雨區(qū)下方發(fā)生了什么，我們現(xiàn)在的系統(tǒng)能夠觀測(cè)風(fēng)暴單體外圍風(fēng)場(chǎng)。但是，針對(duì)風(fēng)暴關(guān)鍵的眼壁區(qū)域氣旋過(guò)程的認(rèn)識(shí)有缺欠——這樣的缺欠將被CYGNSS資料填補(bǔ)。模式可以預(yù)報(bào)云區(qū)下方發(fā)生了什么，但是如果沒(méi)有連續(xù)的試驗(yàn)驗(yàn)證，準(zhǔn)確性會(huì)很低……”

——NASA將布設(shè)其第一個(gè)地球科學(xué)小衛(wèi)星星座系統(tǒng)——?dú)庑驅(qū)Ш较到y(tǒng)（The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System，CYGNSS）。針對(duì)該系統(tǒng)的意義，美國(guó)密歇根大學(xué)氣候和空間科學(xué)系的Chris Ruf教授給出了上述評(píng)價(jià)。據(jù)悉，CYGNSS中的小衛(wèi)星將持續(xù)對(duì)地球熱帶颶風(fēng)帶緯度區(qū)域海洋表面風(fēng)場(chǎng)進(jìn)行監(jiān)測(cè)，每顆衛(wèi)星每秒鐘可以捕獲4次風(fēng)觀測(cè)，這樣星座的8顆衛(wèi)星每秒鐘可以獲得32個(gè)風(fēng)速記錄。CYGNSS也是NASA地球冒險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目第一個(gè)通過(guò)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)立項(xiàng)的地球軌道觀測(cè)完整項(xiàng)目，立志于低成本、快速開(kāi)發(fā)和科學(xué)驅(qū)動(dòng)認(rèn)識(shí)地球當(dāng)前狀態(tài)及其復(fù)雜的動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)，確保對(duì)未來(lái)變化預(yù)測(cè)的持續(xù)改進(jìn)。

“More than ever, federal support of research and education into the Earth system is critical to the nation, We are on the verge of a new era of prediction, based on understanding how the entire Earth system works. This will have a direct positive impact on lives and livelihoods. The United States should be the unambiguous leader in predicting weather, water, climate, and related systems. Transforming this knowledge into action will allow our nation and the world to effectively respond and adapt to changing environmental conditions.”

“聯(lián)邦對(duì)地球系統(tǒng)研究和教育的支持比以往任何時(shí)候都來(lái)得關(guān)鍵，基于對(duì)整個(gè)地球系統(tǒng)機(jī)制的認(rèn)識(shí)，我們將迎來(lái)預(yù)報(bào)新時(shí)代。這將給我們的生活帶來(lái)正面影響。美國(guó)應(yīng)該義無(wú)反顧成為預(yù)報(bào)天氣、氣候和相關(guān)系統(tǒng)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。將這樣的思想付諸行動(dòng)，會(huì)讓我們的國(guó)家和世界有效地應(yīng)對(duì)和適應(yīng)變化中的環(huán)境條件?！?/p>

——美國(guó)大選結(jié)果出來(lái)后，作為美國(guó)110個(gè)非盈利學(xué)院和大學(xué)聯(lián)盟成員的UCAR，發(fā)表了針對(duì)下一代政府和國(guó)會(huì)的白皮書(shū)，強(qiáng)調(diào)預(yù)報(bào)地球系統(tǒng)的價(jià)值所在。UCAR主席Antonio J. Busalacchi更是全面表達(dá)了白皮書(shū)的應(yīng)景意義所在，以及美國(guó)應(yīng)該作為地球系統(tǒng)預(yù)報(bào)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的觀點(diǎn)。

2016年11月19日，NOAA宣布其下一代地球靜止軌道氣象衛(wèi)星GOES-R發(fā)射成功，多位相關(guān)部門(mén)官員發(fā)表了看法。

Kathryn Sullivan：“The next generation of weather satellites is finally here. GOES-R is one of the most sophisticated Earthobserving platforms ever devised. GOES-R’s instruments will be capable of scanning the planet fi ve times faster and with four times more resolution than any other satellite in our fl eet. With these new instruments and powerful new capabilities, GOES-R will strengthen NOAA’s ability to issue life-saving forecasts and warnings and make the United States an even stronger, more resilient Weather-Ready Nation.”

Louis W. Uccellini：“We are ready to receive and process GOES-R data into our forecasts as soon as it is available. Forecasters will not only have sharper, more detailed views of evolving weather systems, they will have more data–better data–ingested into our weather models to help us predict the weather tomorrow, this weekend and next week. This is a major advancement for weather forecasting.”

Craig Fugate：“GOES-R will signif i cantly improve the ability of emergency managers across America to prepare for, and respond to, weather-related disasters. Better situational awareness will result in better outcomes -- from where to best position resources ahead of a storm to delivering more targeted information to local off i cials to decide if an evacuation is necessary,”

Stephen Volz：“We’ve crossed an historic performance threshold with GOES-R. NOAA is now operating the most sophisticated technology ever flown in space to help forecast weather on Earth.”

Sandra Smalley：“NOAA and NASA have partnered for decades on successful environmental satellite missions. Today’s launch continues that partnership and provides the basis for future collaboration in developing advanced weather satellites.”

NOAA局長(zhǎng)Kathryn Sullivan：“下一代天氣衛(wèi)星終于升空。GOES-R是目前最復(fù)雜的地球觀測(cè)平臺(tái)之一。GOES-R上的儀器將讓掃描地球的速度提高5倍，而且較我們已有衛(wèi)星的分辨率提高4倍。這些新儀器和強(qiáng)大的新能力，將讓GOES-R強(qiáng)化NOAA保護(hù)生命的預(yù)警能力，讓美國(guó)成為更強(qiáng)大、更具彈性的天氣有序國(guó)家?！?/p>

NWS局長(zhǎng)Louis W. Uccellini：“我們準(zhǔn)備就緒，盡快接收和將GOES-R資料融入我們的預(yù)報(bào)中。預(yù)報(bào)員不僅能夠更加清晰和詳盡地看到天氣系統(tǒng)的演變，他們還得到更多，而且更好的資料嵌入我們的天氣模式，幫助我們預(yù)報(bào)明天、這個(gè)周末和下周的天氣。這是天氣預(yù)報(bào)的巨大進(jìn)步。”

FEMA（聯(lián)邦應(yīng)急管理局）局長(zhǎng)Craig Fugate：“GOES-R將極大改進(jìn)整個(gè)美國(guó)應(yīng)急管理人員的能力，對(duì)天氣相關(guān)的災(zāi)害做出準(zhǔn)備和應(yīng)對(duì)。更好的形勢(shì)感知將帶來(lái)更好的結(jié)果——從風(fēng)暴來(lái)臨前最佳資源集散地點(diǎn)的確定到向當(dāng)?shù)毓賳T發(fā)布目標(biāo)性更強(qiáng)的支持做出是否需要疏散決策的信息?！?/p>

NOAA信息衛(wèi)星局局長(zhǎng)Stephen Volz：“GOES-R將跨越性能的歷史極限。NOAA現(xiàn)在在空間領(lǐng)域展現(xiàn)的最復(fù)雜技術(shù)，幫助預(yù)報(bào)地球天氣?！?/p>

NASA聯(lián)合部委衛(wèi)星部主任Sandra Smalley：“NOAA和NASA數(shù)十年作為伙伴成功實(shí)施環(huán)境衛(wèi)星使命。今天的發(fā)射持續(xù)了這種合作，并為未來(lái)合作開(kāi)發(fā)先進(jìn)天氣衛(wèi)星打下了基礎(chǔ)?！?/p>

——GOES-R是美國(guó)下一代地球靜止氣象衛(wèi)星系列中的第一顆，成功發(fā)射意義巨大，各方官員興奮之情溢于言表也屬正常。據(jù)悉，該系列衛(wèi)星包含的4顆衛(wèi)星，業(yè)務(wù)化前分別為GOES系列的R，S，T 和U星，將支持NOAA一直到2036年的氣象業(yè)務(wù)。