Continue to Liberalise Chinas Economy

Chinas entry to a global currency elite represents another highly symbolic step along the way to its inclusion as a full partner in a global financial and trading system.

Despite legitimate concerns about Chinas faltering commitment to financial sector reforms， the International Monetary Funds decision to include the Chinese yuan， or renminbi， in a basket of reserve currencies， known as Special Drawing Rights， should be welcomed.

This is a further sign of Beijing being accorded the status of responsible stakeholder in a globalised world. However， the IMF will need to be vigilant to make sure China lives up to its undertakings to continue to liberalise its economy.

The IMF decision is both an overdue recognition of Chinas importance in the world trading system， and an encouragement to reformers in the Chinese leadership to keep pressing ahead with a process of liberalisation.

Pointedly， IMF chief Christine Lagarde said the “renminbis inclusion in the SDR is a clear indication of the reforms that have been implemented and will continue to be implemented.”

China is edging towards full currency convertibility in line with the practices of its trading partners. The Peoples Bank of Chinas management of yuan dollar rates remains a clumsy work in progress， leaving Beijing open to criticism it is a currency manipulator to improve Chinese exporterscompetitiveness.

In some respects IMF decision might be regarded as a consolation prize for China and other important emerging market economies whose push for increased IMF voting rights in line with their economic significance

Chinas Asian International Infrastructure Bank （AIIB） initiative is widely regarded as a response to continued US-dominance of international lending institutions – the IMF and World Bank.

The Yuan Would not Become a Reserve Currency until September 2016

While the immediate effects of the yuans inclusion in the SDR basket will not make much difference in world currency markets – the yuan would not become a reserve currency until September 2016 – what cannot be overstated is its broader significance.

The decision ranks symbolically with Chinas admission to the World Trade Organisation in 2001.

What will happen in the third quarter of next year is the yuan would join the US dollar， the euro， the British pound and the Japanese yen as contributors to the SDR basket.

This is a weighted basket of currencies used by the IMF to price its emergency loans. Under the new arrangement， the US dollars weighting will remain broadly unchanged at 41.73 per cent， the euro 37.4 per cent， the yuan 10.92 per cent， the yen， 8.33 per cent and sterling 8.09 per cent.

As representative of the worlds second largest – and fast growing – economy China could be expected to assume a bigger weighting in the years ahead.

What will be scrutinised by currency traders in the immediate aftermath of the IMF decision will be the extent to which the yuan moves in anticipation of being added to the IMF basket of reserve currencies in 2016.

Traders have mixed perspectives on likely yuan movements between those who anticipate an appreciation in its value against the dollar and those who expect the currency to drift down during the next twelve months in response to a slowing economy.

A consensus view is that the yuan will depreciate by anything between 3-10 per cent ， an IMF decision on SDRs notwithstanding.

China analysts are forecasting not much more than $US42 billion in reserve assets being rebalanced in to the yuan as a consequence of the SDR decision.

More significant is the further encouragement the IMF move will give to central banks and other such institutions to access Chinas bond markets that have hitherto been treated warily by sovereign institutions.

Among the IMFs various motivations -- apart from recognition that it made no sense to continue to exclude an economic powerhouse from those contributing to a basket of reserve currencies -- is the hope that such a step will add to pressures on Chinas central bank， the Peoples Bank of China， to become less opaque.

Lack of transparency in the PBOCs decision making processes， is a significant， and ongoing， concern.

From an Australian perspective the IMF decision may have negative consequences if the yuan drifts significantly lower against the dollar， thus increasing the competitiveness of Chinese commodity producers.

The point is that given uncertainty in currency markets anyway ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate decision later this month it is virtually impossible to predict where we will be a year from now when the IMFs SDR decision comes into effect.

Whats next for China？

China has entered the big league with its currencys inclusion into the International Monetary Fund （IMF）s basket of reserve currencies， but analysts are already looking to see what the next move is as the country continues to reform and open its financial markets.

Experts interviewed expect more reforms like those that led to the IMFs decision， including allowing the yuans value to be determined to a greater extent by the market， to push the currency onto the global stage.

The Chinese yuan was added as the fifth currency to the IMFs Special Drawing Right （SDR） basket on November 30， marking a historic moment in Chinas journey toward globalizing its currency. The decision also underscores the countrys rising financial and economic heft.

Yi Gang， Vice Governor of the Peoples Bank of China（PBOC）， the countrys central bank， said the yuans inclusion in the SDR is just the beginning and China has a long way to go before it closes the gap with more mature financial markets.

“Joining the SDR means the world will expect more from China in its financial and economic reforms. Therefore， China should learn from developed countries as well as other developing countries and emerging markets in a modest manner，”Yi said during a press briefing on December 1. “China will press ahead with its reforms and opening up so as to consolidate its status as a reserve currency in the SDR basket.”

SDR is an international reserve asset created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries official reserves. SDRs are allocated to IMF members from time to time， based on each countrys quota in the IMF. The composition of the SDR basket is reviewed every five years.

As of September 2015， a total of 204.1 billion SDRs（about $280 billion） have been allocated， most recently in 2009 when 182.6 billion SDRs were allocated， according to the IMF data.

The PBOC said it welcomes the IMF decision， calling it an acknowledgement of Chinas economic development， reform and opening up.

“The inclusion of the yuan in the SDR basket will increase the representativeness and attractiveness of the SDR， and help improve the current international monetary system， which will benefit both China and the rest of the world，” it said in a statement following the IMF announcement. “It also means that the international community expects China to play a bigger role in the international economic and financial sys-tem.”

The inclusion will go into effect on October 1， 2016， with the yuan joining the U.S. dollar， euro， Japanese yen and British pound. In an announcement following a vote by the IMFs executive board， Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the yuan meets all existing criteria and is determined to be a freely usable currency.

“The continuation and deepening of these efforts will bring about a more robust international monetary and financial system， which in turn will support the growth and stability of China and the global economy，” Lagarde said in her announcement.

She continued， calling the decision “an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy into the global financial system” and an important validation of Chinas efforts to reform its monetary and financial systems.

The Worlds Fourth most-used Payments Currency

Indeed， the yuan has passed multiple milestones over the past year. It is now the worlds fourth most-used payments currency， passing the Japanese yen. In August， the yuan ac- counted for 2.79 percent of global payments in terms of value， according to data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.

The currencys elevation to the club of elite reserve currencies is the icing on the cake， so to speak， and represents a historic moment for China akin to when the country was included in the World Trade Organization in 2001， said Guo Tianyong， a finance professor with Beijing-based Central University of Finance and Economics.

“It means the international community has recognized the yuans capability in shouldering the responsibilities of a global currency，” Xu Hongcai， Director of the Economic Research Department at China Center for International Economic Exchange （CCIEE）， told Beijing Review . “In the meantime， it will help facilitate further globalization of the yuan.”

Xu said the inclusion marks an increase of the yuans international credit， which will pave the way for broader use of the currency in global trade and finance and help lower the financial costs and exchange rate risks for those who use the currency.

A report from the Shanghai-based Haitong Securities Co. Ltd. forecasted that the yuans exchange rate will become more flexible in the future， predicting that the trading band will be expanded to 3 percent or more as the PBOC further loosens its grip over the currency following the IMFs decision. The PBOC changed the way the yuans daily trading band is calculated on March 17， 2014， by setting a daily midpoint for the yuan that the currency can then be traded within a 2-percent range. The central bank previously controlled the midpoint and allowed the currency to fluctuate just 1 percent of the midpoint.

In August， China changed its central parity system to better reflect market development in the exchange rate between the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar， another step toward market forces determining the value of the currency.

The central bank has made other large strides in recent years to reform the financial markets and open its capital account.

Its those reforms that have led to Chinas economic progress and the IMFs decision to include the yuan in the currency basket， said Cao Fengqi， Director of the Research Center for Finance and Securities at Peking University.

He has no doubt that the yuan will become a global currency. “Its only a matter of time，” Cao said.

Xu warned the government cannot be complacent now that the yuan has been included， saying it still has a long way to go before it will be considered a global currency.

China will face fresh pressure after the inclusion， as the government will need to pay more attention to fluctuations in financial markets both at home and abroad， said Xu.

“I think the opening up of the capital account should be pushed forward in a steady manner. Massive inflow and outflow of capital could be quite normal in the future，” he said. The government should have additional supervision over speculative capital flows that can lead to market instability， which he says could include a Tobin tax--a tax on crossborder currency transaction.

Reforms are expected to continue. The Haitong Securities report predicts that three major reforms are coming down the pipeline following the IMFs decision： formation mechanism of the yuan exchange rate， management of international capital flow and further opening up of the domestic bond market.

Xu also said that China should step up its efforts of encouraging more foreign borrowers to issue yuan-denominated bonds on the Chinese mainland， also known as Panda bonds. The bonds development has lagged over the past decade because markets expect the yuan to appreciate against the U.S.dollar and to have a higher interest rate than its American counterpart， Xu said.

“But these two criteria are changing， as the value of the yuan is fluctuating both ways against the dollar and a narrowing interest rate gap between two currencies following five yuan rate cuts this year and upcoming dollar rate rise，” Xu elaborated.

The first batch of overseas central banks and similar institutions were allowed to enter Chinas interbank foreign exchange market， the PBOC announced on November 25. Xu said global financial institutions should be， too.

“Global financial institutions， such as the World Bank， Asian Development Bank， European Bank for Reconstruction and Development， as well as the China-proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank， should be allowed into Chinas interbank forex market as well，” Xu said.

“They should be encouraged to issue yuan-denominated bonds to facilitate connectivity projects along China-proposed Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road，” Xu said.

Ultimately， the IMFs decision to include the yuan in the SDR will impact more than just markets by making it easier for ordinary Chinese to consume and invest overseas because more countries will recognize the currency， said Lian Ping， chief economist with the Bank of Communications.

“In the future， Chinese people dont have to convert foreign currencies before traveling abroad. Bringing the yuan is enough，” he said.

Desmond Fu， a trader at Western Asset， told China Daily that the IMF decision marks recognition of the yuans rising role in global financial markets， both as a reserve and settlement currency.

“This is beneficial to both China and its trading partners as bilateral trades can be transacted without reference to a third-party currency，” he said.

Wang Tao， chief China economist with UBS AG， said the yuans inclusion into the SDR basket will pave the way for the emergence， over time， of yuan-denominated assets comprising a significant share of global reserves.

But Xu warned that the SDR currency basket is limited in its usefulness. “It has not been widely accepted in the financial system，” he said.

Bringing the Yuan is Enough

Just over a decade ago， renminbi usage was largely confined to mainland China. Hardly any of Chinas trade with the rest of the world was settled in renminbi， and the market for renminbi-denominated bonds was non-existent.

By now， more than a quarter of Chinas trade is settled in renminbi. Various cross-border schemes allow foreign investors to buy stocks and bonds in mainland China. A large pool of offshore renminbi that is freely convertible for trade payment and investment also exists — Hong Kong being the largest offshore centre with some RMB1 trillion in funding.

The SDR inclusion — long an aspiration for policy-makers in Beijing — sends several important messages.

It underlines just how far the Chinese currency has come， and vindicates Beijings financial-market reforms to date. The renminbi may not yet be freely convertible， but the developments so far reinforce the view that the renminbi is on track for full convertibility within the next few years.

At the same time， the SDR decision serves as a “sign” of long-term quality assurance： it underlines that the currency is liquid and stable as a store of value. Also， it will give greater confidence to companies and institutions around the world to settle trade in renminbi and invest in renminbi-denominated assets.

In other words， SDR inclusion is a big psychological confidence-booster.

In terms of financial flows， the inclusion in the SDR basket will prompt some central banks to adjust their holdings of the Chinese currency. The renminbi has been assigned a 10.92-per-cent weighting in the SDR basket， higher than that of the pound and the yen.

Central banks and reserve managers who hold assets denominated in SDRs， or who match their reserves to the SDR， will need to adjust their renminbi holdings accordingly. According to a survey of central banks carried out earlier in the year， the renminbi will make up an estimated 2.9 per cent of foreign-exchange reserves by the end of this year — and will account for 10 per cent of world reserves by 2025.

Finally， and perhaps most importantly， the SDR inclusion presages still more financial and capital account liberalization.

In the run-up to the IMFs twice-a-decade review of the SDR basket composition， policy-makers in Beijing had stepped up financial reforms in a bid to attain inclusion.

This July， the Peoples Bank of China made it easier for other central banks， sovereign wealth funds and international financial institutions such as the World Bank to invest in Chinas inter-bank bond market， where the vast majority of Chinas government and corporate bonds are traded.

In August， the authorities gave market forces a greater role in how the central parity rate of the renminbi against the U.S. dollars daily trading band is determined.