撰文：沈悅

大趨勢和小趨勢

撰文：沈悅

預(yù)測未來對任何人來講都是有難度的，特別是對景觀的世界。我學(xué)生中的大多數(shù)人在入學(xué)前都能簡潔地回答“景觀”是什么，但在真正接受了景觀的正規(guī)教育后卻難于回答或者是無法簡單地回答這個他們?nèi)雽W(xué)前就曾經(jīng)回答過的問題，有人甚至說自從深入地學(xué)習(xí)了景觀理論后反而不知景觀為何事何物了。這是由于他們知道了這個學(xué)科的多樣性、復(fù)雜性和至難的預(yù)測性。景觀（landscape）實際上是與一個個具體的地域環(huán)境相聯(lián)系的事物。不同地域環(huán)境，不同地域的社會文化都會釀出不同性質(zhì)的景觀智慧。比如在日本提起都市景觀或開放空間時，防災(zāi)避險的內(nèi)容會必不可少地被提起，而在離日本不遠的韓國，就沒有綠地防災(zāi)的概念。所以對于景觀而言，拋開具體環(huán)境來議論的話就會空乏至極。也可以說，一切空頭的、抽象的、放之四海而皆準的景觀公式是沒有的。我的學(xué)生正是在經(jīng)歷了來自“空間性”、“社會性”、“生態(tài)性”、“文化性”、“醫(yī)療福址性”等多重側(cè)面的景觀專業(yè)教育訓(xùn)練后，認識到了景觀的多元，繼而懷疑既有的理論系統(tǒng)，應(yīng)該說是一個極大的進步，也是未來的希望。

在我看來，景觀這一行業(yè)雖具多樣化的特征，但從始至今總是圍繞“人與自然環(huán)境的關(guān)系”為中心而作反復(fù)議論。在這一軸線上它有偏重視覺藝術(shù)的時代，也有把生態(tài)學(xué)理論作全面推舉的時期。每一個階段都有它的社會背景，或者說有當時的主流意識支撐。其實回過頭來看看歷史，誰都能說出一些。即便有觀點的不同也不會左右太遠，因為有事實擺在那兒。難說的事情是什么？就是本篇的約稿題：預(yù)測景觀的未來。將來會怎么樣，誰都不清楚，誰都想知道。我當然也不敢冒言具體事物，僅以個人觀點推論的話可以提出幾點趨勢以作拋磚引玉。第一類是大趨勢，范圍是可橫跨幾個經(jīng)濟水平差不多的國家。第二類是小趨勢，可收縮在中國等發(fā)展中國家。從國際的大趨勢來看，減碳、生物多樣性、能源革命的三大潮流將是影響景觀領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展方向。這里面雖然有爭論（比如地球環(huán)境暖化原因是否在于碳素增加），但是由于這些問題已被公認為社會問題，所以已經(jīng)集中了大量的公共預(yù)算和技術(shù)研發(fā)，景觀領(lǐng)域同樣被卷在其中。比如在減碳方面，日本國土交通省屬下研究所不僅在城市的資源循環(huán)上作了深層探索，還花精力把有30年樹齡的各種樹木作為研究對象而進行徹底干燥，從而導(dǎo)算出每一個樹種的吸碳量。這一成果也許會導(dǎo)致廣域范圍的綠色景觀的變化和苗木生產(chǎn)的取向。而在南半球的新西蘭，在生物多樣性的新潮到來之始時就全面地鋪開了以自生植物為基礎(chǔ)的景觀再建。我們相信上述的這種大趨勢在今后的一定時期內(nèi)會繼續(xù)帶動各個國家或地區(qū)的技術(shù)開發(fā)而帶來城市景觀的逐漸翻新。那么具體到各個小地域會怎么樣？在人口眾多的亞洲城市不僅有著人均土地占有率少、還有宗教和習(xí)俗多樣、并彼此獨立的特征。所以，對于這些城市，今后會在“城市空間高效利用”方面出現(xiàn)更切實際的研究，這些城市空間內(nèi)會更多地出現(xiàn)屋頂、壁面、室內(nèi)、地下、甚至空中的各種概念的綠色空間。也會因為文化的多元和獨立而出現(xiàn)更多的有亞洲文化的魅力空間，只是需要祈禱他們不會被另一種文化覆蓋。

從另一個角度來說，雖然景觀世界會變得越來越多樣，但支撐它的社會機制可能會愈來愈簡單化。網(wǎng)絡(luò)的發(fā)達使許多工作的中間環(huán)節(jié)被去掉，固有的平臺被打破，機會被均等地給了每一個人。在這種背景下，我相信，無須多久，最具爆發(fā)力的發(fā)展中國家中會出現(xiàn)讓世界刮目相看的案例和人才。

Predicting the future is no doubt difficult for anyone， but when it comes to the future for landscape it’s even more unpredictable. Most of my students were able to answer easily what “l(fā)andscape is” before entering school and being taught. But after entering school and being lectured properly，the students may no longer answer or even understand what landscape really is. This is because they recognized the diverseness， complexity， and the unpredictable expansion of the concept that the landscape holds.

We must keep in mind that the actual landscapes are always connected with specific district or area. It is also recognized that the natural environment or social culture of that area is closely related with the landscape formation， and also the wisdom of landscape formation is born from those area.

For example， when the word， landscapes or open spaces in urban areas， are brought up in Japan， keywords such as disaster prevention or evacuation will also arise. However in South Korea - not so far from Japan- there are no ideas such as green space disaster defense. This indicates that landscapes are meaningless when it is discussed without its specific background， such as its country，land or region of space. Also there are no formula for landscapes that can be used worldwide， since the idea is so abstract.

My students were taught about the multilayered landscape-spatial， social， ecological， cultural and aspects of medical welfare- and were able to recognize the multiplicity of landscape， yet not able to clearly explain the meaning of it， and even starting to doubt the validity of the theoretical concept of the landscape. This is substantial growth and their future is promising.

From my point of view， I have always been discussing the landscape in relation between human and natural environment. Based upon this idea， there were times when visual arts were highly valued or times when ecological importance covered the entire range of this field. The progress for each stages were influenced from the social background or mainstream opinion at that time. However， the theme is ‘the future of landscape’which is quite difficult to say. Most would want to know about the future of the landscape field， but no one can predict it. I myself， can only vaguely say regarding the future， but made a rough speculation as follows.

One of the big trend applies for countries with stable economy. And the other trend is rather small， but adapts in countries in Asian areas. The three streams that will influence the future of landscape are CO2reduction， biodiversity and energy revolution. These three are already dealt as societal strategies， which prodigious public funding and technological development are concentrated and the landscape field will most definitely be involved. The stream of CO2reduction， for instance， the research institute of Ministry of Land，Infrastructure， Transport and Tourism in Japan are experimenting trees that are thirty years old， and calculating the CO2absorbing ability for each type of tree. This achievement will greatly influence the development for the green landscape as well as the productions of nursery stocks. In the meantime，New Zealand at the Southern hemisphere， is also joining the stream for biodiversity， and is now fully renovating its existing landscape with native vegetation. This changing movement of landscape，occurring all around the world will likely go on for a while. The trend in the Asian area can also be seen. Most cities in Asia are highly populated and multiethnic. The studies about the “beneficial usage of urban open space” will further develop within these cities， and there may be greenspace in rooftops， walls， within buildings， under grounds and even in midair， the types we have never seen before， and with the help of coexistence of diverse culture， more and more unique and alluring small spaces within cities may develop.

The landscapes all around the world seem to become diverse， but at the same time， the foundation of landscape works may become simplified. Most works are simplified due to the development of the digitalization and diffuse of internets and also the increase of intelligence sharing lead to end the monopoly on works for some portion of organization or persons.

I truly believe in the near future， an inspirational landscape within the growing countrieshaving an explosive power and awellreceived human resources will appear.

Big Trend， Small Trend

Text by： SHEN Yue

沈悅/日本兵庫縣立大學(xué)大學(xué)院教授、景觀設(shè)計領(lǐng)域主席/淡路景觀園藝學(xué)校景觀設(shè)計研究部門主任

Biography：

SHEN Yue is a Professor of the Graduate School of Landscape Design and Management in University of Hyogo， Japan.