Kirk Goldsberry

ITS TIME TO PROPERLY MEASURE THE VALUE OF NBA COACHES.

是時候合理評估NBA教練的價值了。

NBA teams are increasingly addicted to 3-point shooting. Thats been common knowledge for a while. The feeding of this addiction has changed the way entire offenses are run. Out with the ball-stoppers， in with the ball-movers.

NBA球隊越來越沉迷于三分，這成為普遍認識已經(jīng)有一段時間了。對于這種嗜好的滿足，導致整個進攻發(fā)生了改變。防守者越來越少，轉(zhuǎn)移球的人越來越多。

The sneaky thing about NBA 3s is that they demand cooperation. While only 52 percent of the leagues 2-point field goals involve an assist， 84 percent of 3s involve an assist. As the league increases its appetite for long-range shooting， it must also ramp up its passing. Moving the ball has never been more important， and systems that keep the ball in motion effectively have never been more successful.

NBA的三分有一個麻煩，就是需要合作。盡管聯(lián)盟里只有52%的兩分球涉及到了助攻，但是涉及到助攻的三分球卻有84%。隨著聯(lián)盟越來越喜歡遠距離投籃，傳球也相應變得越來越多。轉(zhuǎn)移球從來沒有如此重要過，而能讓球處于有效移動中的體系也從來沒像今天這樣如此成功。

The Denver Nuggets fired Brian Shaw. There is no shortage of indicators that point to Denvers failures； the Nuggets rank 24th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency — however， given the trends highlighted above， that they also rank last in 3-point efficiency seems particularly salient.

丹佛掘金炒掉布萊恩·肖，丹佛走向失敗的跡象并不少見：進攻效率排第24，防守效率第25。不過，鑒于上面提到的趨勢，他們在三分效率中排名倒數(shù)第一顯得尤其扎眼。

Overall， the Nuggets convert a measly 31.3 percent of their 3s. How bad is that？ Well， out of 103 qualifying players in ESPNs 3-point efficiency standings， only five players shoot below that mark. So， thats pretty bad.

從總體上看，掘金的三分命中率只有31.3%。這個數(shù)據(jù)有多差？在ESPN符合三分效率榜標準的103名球員中，只有5名球員低于這一數(shù)據(jù)。所以，這真的很糟。

Nobody knows more about coaching trends than Warren LeGarie， an agent who represents seven NBA head coaches and many more potential coaches. I asked LeGarie this week about the interactions between the obvious stylistic evolution of NBA offense and the less obvious shifts in the coaching market.

沒有人比沃倫·拉加利更了解執(zhí)教趨勢，他是七名NBA主教練的經(jīng)紀人，他的客戶中還有更多可能會在未來當教練的人。本周，我就NBA進攻風格的明顯轉(zhuǎn)變與教練市場的不明顯轉(zhuǎn)變之間的互動詢問了拉加利。

“These last couple of seasons， the game and style of play has really changed for the better， exemplified by the Spurs domination of Miami in last years NBA Finals； the winners have been the fans and the coaches who play that way，” LeGarie says. “The star-ball era， which has dominated the game and major portions of the salary cap for much of the last 10 years， finally seems to be going by way of the dinosaur.”

“過去幾個賽季里，比賽和戰(zhàn)術(shù)風格真的在朝更好的方向發(fā)展，典型就是馬刺去年總決賽對熱火的統(tǒng)治級表現(xiàn)；贏家是球迷和選擇這種打法的教練。”拉加利說，“明星球的時代，在過去10年大多數(shù)時候統(tǒng)治比賽、占據(jù)薪金空間大頭的球風，似乎終于像恐龍一樣消失了?！?/p>

Mike Budenholzer and Shaw landed first-time coaching gigs in the summer of 2013. Before landing in Atlanta， Budenholzer wrote a dissertation on hardwood egalitarianism at Popovich University； before his time in Denver，Shaw diligently studied Zen and the Art of Superstar Maintenance at Triangle Tech.

邁克·布登霍澤和肖在2013年夏天都獲得了第一份教練工作。加入老鷹前，布登霍澤專門研究過波波維奇平等主義籃球；成為掘金主教練前，肖勤奮地學習過禪道，以及三角進攻包容超級巨星的藝術(shù)。

While both apprenticed under legendary masters， their paths have been extremely divergent since taking their helms： Shaw is out of a job， while Budenholzers Hawks own the NBAs best record. Maybe its unfair to look for symbolism here， but in the pace-and-space era， coaches are more important than ever.

盡管兩人都是大師的弟子，但成為主教練后，兩人走的路卻大相徑庭：肖丟了工作，而布登霍澤的老鷹擁有聯(lián)盟最佳戰(zhàn)績。也許在這里尋找代表點并不公平，但在節(jié)奏和空間的時代，教練的作用變得更為重要。

Pop quiz， hotshot①： Whos the best shooter in the NBA？

各位高手，腦筋急轉(zhuǎn)彎：誰是NBA最好的投手？

A： The open shooter.

答案：有空位的投手。

Perimeter success in todays NBA is as much a reflection of shot quality as it is shooter quality. Just ask Danny Green， whose career has gone from the waiver wire to spot-up legend largely by switching systems. But， if we believe in this “Danny Green effect，” we must also allow for an opposite phenomenon， where players seemingly devolve after changing systems. Shaws tenure provides us with a few examples.

如今NBA在外線的成功，既是投籃質(zhì)量的反映，也是投手質(zhì)量的反映。問問丹尼·格林就知道了，僅僅因為更換了體系，他就從隊見隊裁的廢柴變成了定點投籃傳奇?？扇绻覀兿嘈拧暗つ帷じ窳中?，我們就必須允許相對現(xiàn)象的存在，也就是球員在更換體系后出現(xiàn)退化。我們可以從肖的掘金時期找出一些例子

Consider the plight of Wilson Chandler， who has played in Denver for years. In George Karls last year in Denver （2012-13）， he shot 41 percent from beyond the arc. This year， that figure is way down to 33 percent. Maybe Chandler simply got worse at shooting — or maybe his looks got worse under Shaw.

想一想威爾森·錢德勒的困境，他在掘金已經(jīng)打了很多年。喬治·卡爾在丹佛的最后一年（2012-13），錢德勒的三分命中率是41%。今年，這個數(shù)據(jù)掉到了33%。

When looking at teams 3-point efficiencies， youll notice that Budenholzers Hawks are near the top of the list， trailing only the Splash Brothers under Steve Kerr. Does this mean Atlanta has the best shooters in the league？ Well， having Kyle Korver certainly doesnt hurt， but he typically doesnt create his own shots. They also feature players like DeMarre Carroll， who shot just 29 percent on 3-pointers two years ago — hes up to 40 percent this year， essentially exhibiting the inverse effect as Chandler.

要是看球隊的三分效率，你會注意到布登霍澤的老鷹幾乎接近榜首，僅次于斯蒂夫·科爾手下的水花兄弟。但這是否等于老鷹擁有聯(lián)盟最好的射手？好吧，擁有凱爾·科沃爾當然不會有害，但科沃爾基本上不會自己創(chuàng)造投籃機會。老鷹隊里還有德瑪爾·卡羅爾，兩年前他的三分命中率還只有29%——今年這個數(shù)字是40%，正好是錢德勒效應的對立面。

And while spot-up threats like Korver have experienced heightened value， what about the coaches who are able to architect a system that allows these guys to flourish？ After all， 95 percent of Korvers 3s this year involve an assist， and though were good at teasing out how many of those assists belong to Jeff Teague， were less inclined to investigate how many of them belong to Budenholzer. Perhaps just as baseball accounts for “park effects②，” basketball should account for “coach effects.”

像科沃爾一樣的定點投籃專家的價值受到人們關(guān)注時，那些構(gòu)建了這些體系、讓球員得以閃光的教練呢？總之，科沃爾今年95%的三分都來自助攻，盡管我們愿意研究究竟有多少助攻來自杰夫·蒂格，我們卻很少去研究到底有多少助攻來自布登霍澤。也許就像棒球?qū)⑵浞Q為“球場效應”一樣，籃球應該將其歸為“教練效應”。

In 2015， the NBAs best coaches might be the most undervalued human resources in the league. Should Jeremy Lin or Eric Gordon really earn more money than Gregg Popovich？ Should Kerr， Budenholzer， and Dave Joerger combine to earn less than Omer Asik？ Maybe weve traditionally overvalued the impact of players relative to coaches， or maybe the way the game is played now has just heightened the import of tacticians. Either way， the current valuations seem out of whack.

2015年，NBA的最佳教練們可能是聯(lián)盟最被忽視的資源。林書豪或埃里克·戈登真的應該比格雷格·波波維奇掙的還多？科爾、布登霍澤和戴夫·喬格爾的工資加起來應該比歐米爾·阿西克低？也許從傳統(tǒng)上，我們過高的估計了球員相對于教練的價值，也許現(xiàn)在的比賽風格更強調(diào)戰(zhàn)術(shù)家的重要性。無論怎么樣，現(xiàn)在的評價體系不對。

As Kerr and Budenholzer have most recently demonstrated， sometimes changing the coach can be as effective， or more so， as adding a superstar player or two. But coaching prospects come with tremendous amounts of uncertainty. Shaw was one of the most talked-about candidates in the league for years， while many questioned Kerrs lack of coaching experience. Kerr has obviously proved the doubters wrong， and the Shaw hype looks unwarranted.

就像科爾和布登霍澤最近證明的那樣，有時候更換教練等于甚至大于增加一個或者兩個超級明星。不過執(zhí)教潛力卻有著極大的不確定性。肖在很多年里都是聯(lián)盟中被討論得最多的教練候選人，同時有很多人質(zhì)疑科爾缺乏執(zhí)教經(jīng)驗?？茽栵@然證明質(zhì)疑者錯了，而支持肖的聲音顯得毫無根據(jù)。

Theres no arguing that Phil Jackson and Popovich， like Jobs and Gates in the computing industry， loom large over the future of the NBA. Both guys deserve loads of credit for not only winning， but also shaping the way we think about the league. Still， its hard to look at the diverging fates of the Nuggets and Knicks versus the Spurs， Hawks， and Warriors and not hypothesize that Popovichs legacy will have a longer tail， at least stylistically.

毫無疑問，就像計算機界的喬布斯和蓋茨一樣，菲爾·杰克遜和波波維奇對NBA的未來有著巨大的影響。兩個人都配得上大量的贊譽，他們不僅是贏家，還確定了我們看待聯(lián)盟的方法。然而，看到掘金、尼克斯和馬刺、老鷹、勇士的命運對比時，我們很難不去想波波維奇會擁有更長久的影響，至少從風格上來說如此。

Jackson can always say， “count the rings，” while Pop can always say， “count the proteges.”

杰克遜永遠可以說“數(shù)數(shù)戒指”，而波波維奇永遠可以說“數(shù)數(shù)徒弟”。

Shaw failed to get his players to coalesce into anything more than a collection of random NBA parts. Certainly， this failure is not unique to him， but that lack of coalescence is nonetheless evident not just in the wins and losses， but also in his teams low defensive efficiency and terrible perimeter shooting rates.

肖沒能讓自己的球員變成比一盤散沙更強的組合，當然，這種失敗并非只出現(xiàn)在他一人身上。但缺少融合不僅表現(xiàn)在贏球和輸球上，還表現(xiàn)在球隊低下的防守效率和糟糕的外線投籃上。

Thirty-five years after the league adopted the 3-point line， Bryants generation is headed for the exit， while the league is full of upstart millennials who are not only keenly aware of the fact that 24-foot shots are worth 50 percent more than 22-foot shots， but also ready and willing to exploit that margin， no matter what it takes. Well， it takes ball movement， and the leagues best coaches are willing and able to implement tactics that help provide just that， while its struggling coaches are either too stubborn or too out of touch to achieve that perimeter nirvana. To hear LeGarie tell it， the “challenge will be to find the ball-movers instead of the ball-stoppers.” Its unclear if hes talking about players or coaches. It is probably both.

聯(lián)盟引入三分線的35年后，科比這一代人正在隱退。聯(lián)盟中滿是新生代，他們不僅清楚地知道24英尺的投籃比22英尺的投籃得分多50%，而且已經(jīng)做好準備、并且愿意利用這樣的優(yōu)勢，不論需要付出什么都行。好吧，這需要將球轉(zhuǎn)移起來，需要聯(lián)盟最好的教練愿意且有能力制定出創(chuàng)造類似機會的戰(zhàn)術(shù)。而表現(xiàn)掙扎的教練要么太固執(zhí)，要么沒有能力實現(xiàn)外線的涅槃。聽拉加利怎么說的，“挑戰(zhàn)在于尋找轉(zhuǎn)移球的人，而不是防守者。”我們不清楚他說的是球員還是教練，很可能兩者都是。

①hotshot是美國俚語，常用的意思是自負、好賣弄的人，或者高手、能人。

②park effect是棒球的術(shù)語。棒球規(guī)則僅僅規(guī)定了內(nèi)野的規(guī)格，卻沒有規(guī)定外野的形制，所以同樣的球在不同球場可能導致不同的結(jié)果。