□ 文/Guillaume Burghouwt

●（Guillaume Burghouwt博士、荷蘭SEO經(jīng)濟研究所、航空經(jīng)濟部主管）

航空互聯(lián)互通——競爭力的關鍵

航空互聯(lián)互通在當今經(jīng)濟全球化中起著至關重要的作用。對亞歐而言，要想從各自的發(fā)展?jié)摿χ蝎@利，在雙方的經(jīng)濟中心區(qū)域建立頻繁可靠、方便快捷的航空聯(lián)系則變得至關重要。保持良好的航空互聯(lián)互通，是保障亞歐各城市和各區(qū)域處于強有力競爭力位置的基本要素。

不必訝異，無論是在地方、國家甚至國際的政策討論中，互聯(lián)互通都是一個越來越重要的話題。例如，倫敦某機場在討論新增跑道時，連通新興市場（如亞洲市場）則成為了討論會的中心主題。歐盟委員會在其廣受討論的《歐盟對外航空政策交流》一文中也明確指出“互聯(lián)互通乃競爭力的核心”。同樣地，重慶舉辦的亞歐互聯(lián)互通產(chǎn)業(yè)對話會不僅展現(xiàn)了“互聯(lián)互通”在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和區(qū)域一體化過程中日益明顯的優(yōu)勢，同時也有利于加強互聯(lián)互通。亞歐會議為亞歐各政府、企業(yè)、專家學者和其他利益相關者提供了一個平臺，旨在加強兩大區(qū)域的“經(jīng)濟繁榮和可持續(xù)發(fā)展，促進人才、貿(mào)易、投資、能源、信息、知識與思想之間的自由、無縫流動，加強各制度之間的聯(lián)系。

越來越多的文獻表明互聯(lián)互通的價值以及與亞歐會議對話的關聯(lián)性。諸多研究表明提高航空互聯(lián)互通有利于增加經(jīng)濟福利收益，為機場區(qū)域創(chuàng)造良好的商業(yè)環(huán)境。增強航空互聯(lián)互通，可以為廣大消費者和商家?guī)砜捎^的福利收益，因為具有良好互聯(lián)互通的區(qū)域，可以在時間和金錢上（航空票價/運價），最大限度地減少旅行成本。巴塞羅那大學研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，歐洲各大城市每增加10%的洲際航空目的地（包括亞洲目的地），在其他所有條件相同的情況下，公司總部新增4%。根據(jù)最新一項關于歐洲機場經(jīng)濟影響的研究報告，航空互聯(lián)互通每提高10%，則會帶來0.5%的GDP增長。同時，也有越來越多的證據(jù)表明，良好的航空互聯(lián)互通有利于提高員工的生產(chǎn)效率，促進國際貿(mào)易，吸引外國直接投資，刺激入境旅游的發(fā)展。

圖1 互聯(lián)互通的良性循環(huán)

提高互聯(lián)互通的良性循環(huán)

互聯(lián)互通提高與經(jīng)濟增長相互促進。良好的航空互聯(lián)互通有利于促進區(qū)域經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易的增長，進而提高航空服務需求。這是因為，提高某個區(qū)域的互聯(lián)互通，會相應增加當?shù)亟?jīng)濟活動中的客流量，為當?shù)芈糜紊鐓^(qū)提供更高水平的服務。同時，航班數(shù)量和目的地的增加，本身也代表著良好的互聯(lián)互通。這也就是我們所說的，互聯(lián)互通的良性循環(huán)。航空互聯(lián)互通不僅能促進經(jīng)濟增長，也能刺激自身發(fā)展。同樣，任何一個機場或政府在制定其策略時可以將互聯(lián)互通視為證明其增長的一個核心元素。

發(fā)展亞歐航空市場的互聯(lián)互通

亞歐會議旨在促進亞歐成員國在互聯(lián)互通、區(qū)域一體化和經(jīng)濟繁榮方面的合作。因此，就亞歐航空互聯(lián)互通而言，我們究竟處于何種地位？

盡管這篇短短的文章沒法給出詳盡的互聯(lián)互通分析，但是根據(jù)國際機場協(xié)會歐洲分會（ACI Europe）與SEO聯(lián)合發(fā)表的《機場行業(yè)互聯(lián)互通報告》，歐洲機場與亞洲之間的航空互聯(lián)互通——以及與北美的互聯(lián)互通考慮到了大多數(shù)的歐洲機場的洲際連接。此外，與世界其他區(qū)域相比，亞洲與歐洲機場的互聯(lián)互通正在不斷提高（見圖2）。亞洲與歐洲機場相互連通，不僅帶來了最高的絕對增長數(shù)字（歐洲機場服務的所有區(qū)域中），同時反映了這兩大區(qū)域在貿(mào)易和旅游方面經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系越來越緊密。從2004年到2014年，亞歐航空總體互聯(lián)互通——所有直飛航班和需在中間樞紐機場轉機的中轉聯(lián)程總數(shù)，各聯(lián)程根據(jù)質(zhì)量進行加權——幾乎翻了一番（見圖2）。直聯(lián)增加了50%，中轉聯(lián)程（大部分）增長了90%。

圖2 2004年至2014年，亞歐總體航空互聯(lián)互通顯著增加

獲得連通性優(yōu)勢的方法

提高航空互聯(lián)互通對于進一步增強亞歐經(jīng)濟與社會關系起著關鍵作用。值得高興的是，在過去十年，這兩大區(qū)域的航空互聯(lián)互通已經(jīng)得到顯著提高。同時，我們也注意到了這兩大區(qū)域的互聯(lián)互通還有著很大的提升空間。

那么，在獲取亞歐市場互聯(lián)互通優(yōu)勢中，政府和行業(yè)利益相關者扮演著什么角色？在此，我們提出四點。

開放航空市場

開放航空市場是提高互聯(lián)互通最基本和最重要的方法。而在相關航空運輸協(xié)定中政府則起著帶頭作用。開放航空市場——從放松雙邊限制到使雙邊或多邊協(xié)議完全自由化——促進提高航空服務（增加航班次數(shù)、開辟新的航空目的地），加強航空公司競爭。讓更多乘客享受更加低廉的旅行費用。相應增加航空公司的成本效益。進而創(chuàng)造更多的機會，促進亞歐航空公司之間的合作，例如通過共用代碼協(xié)議和聯(lián)運。從而，提高自由市場的互聯(lián)互通。

強大的樞紐航空公司

除亞洲航空公司提供亞歐間的直航服務外，法航-荷航、德國漢莎航空和英國航空等歐洲的全球性航空公司也在亞歐直連中扮演著至關重要的角色。這些航空公司所運營的樞紐航空網(wǎng)絡讓它們得以達到足夠的乘客密度（將轉機需求與當?shù)匦枨笙嘟Y合）以運營亞歐間的直航服務，而此類服務若僅靠當?shù)匦枨笫菬o利可圖的。不過，全球性的歐洲航空公司現(xiàn)正承受著來自歐洲內(nèi)（易捷航空、瑞安航空等廉價航空）外（主要是來自海灣國家和土耳其的航空公司）的強大競爭壓力。而這些歐洲樞紐航空公司對提升自己競爭水平負有首要責任，它們應減少單位成本，并通過合并與收購進一步提高協(xié)同效應。

富有競爭力的旅游收費、機場容量和公平的競爭環(huán)境

除此之外，全球性航空公司在連通大都市區(qū)中所發(fā)揮的作用也需得到各地政府承認，并由它們確保（在各自法律系統(tǒng)權限內(nèi)）為這些航空公司提供適宜的條件，以提升其競爭力。也就是說，除其他條件外，還要有充足的機場容量、有競爭力的收費水平（比如各種機場收費）和高效的空域設計。同樣地，捍衛(wèi)航空市場的競爭公平，讓航空公司遵從同一套競爭準則行事，對構建一個健康強大的亞歐航空行業(yè)來說，以及最終對兩個地區(qū)間的互聯(lián)互通來說至關重要。

識別地圖上的“白點”

在過去十年中，亞歐間的互聯(lián)互通有了大幅提高。不過，“白點”又是什么呢？換言之，哪些航線在客流量方面已擁有足夠的直航服務潛力，但卻尚未提供直航服務？哪些市場因受到雙邊協(xié)議或機場擁堵瓶頸限制而難以加強空中的互聯(lián)互通？哪些具備潛力的亞歐新航線正徘徊于需求充足線邊緣，且在適當刺激下即可開通？哪些具備潛力的新航線可能在未來幾年中擁有足夠的需求？另外，哪些新的亞歐間航空服務能同時贏得兩地商務群體的親睞？

結論

航空互聯(lián)互通是加強亞歐間經(jīng)濟與社會聯(lián)系，以實現(xiàn)兩個地區(qū)間互利的關鍵。亞歐會議對話恰如其分地認可了互聯(lián)互通可帶來的經(jīng)濟價值。亞歐間的航空互聯(lián)互通，無論直接或間接，都在過去十年中得到了大幅提升。不過，可提升互聯(lián)互通水平的機會還有很多。航空協(xié)議的開放、白點的識別、具有競爭力的費用水平、以及充足的機場容量等，都是政府及行業(yè)利益相關者可能不得不進一步探索的重要機會。

Connectivity by Air is Key to Competitiveness

Connectivity by air is key in today’s globalized economy.For Europe and Asia to benefit from each other’s growth potential,frequent,reliable and convenient air links between the economic centers in both regions are important.Good connectivity by air is an essential element for the competitive position cities and regions in both Asia and Europe.

Not surprisingly,connectivity is an increasingly important topic in policy discussions,on the regional,national and international level.For example,connectivity to emerging markets (for example in Asia) is a central theme in the debate around an additional runway at one of the London airports.But also the European Commission explicitly states that ‘connectivity is key to competitiveness’in its widely discussed paper Communication on the EU’s external aviation policy.As such,the ASEM Industry Dialogue in Chongqing reflects the growing importance of “connectivity excellence”in economic development and regional integration,but at the same time contributes to enhancing connectivity.ASEM serves as a platform for governments,companies,scholars and other stakeholders from both European and Asia with the aim to enhance connectivity between the two regions for “economic prosperity and sustainable development and to promoting free and seamless movement of people,trade,investment,energy,information,knowledge and ideas,and greater institutional linkages”.

A growing body of literature supports the value of connectivity and therefore the relevance of the ASEM dialogue.Many studies have shown that air connectivity improvements translate in economic welfare gains and a better business climate in the airport region.Air connectivity growth results in considerable welfare gains for consumers and businesses as a well-connected region minimizes travel costs in both time and money (air fares/ freight rates).Researchers of the University of Barcelona2 found that a 10% growth in intercontinental destinations in European cities (including to destinations in Asia) results in a 4% growth in the number of company headquarters,all other things being equal.According to a recent study on the economic impact of European airports3 ,a 10% connectivity growth generates a 0.5% growth in GDP.But there is also increasing evidence that better air connectivity improves productivity of employees,generates international trade,attracts foreign direct investments and stimulates inbound tourism.

The Virtuous Circle of Connectivity Growth

The relationship between connectivity growth and economic growth is a synergetic one.The regional economic and trade gains resulting from better air connectivity again generate more demand for air services.This is because the improved connectivity of a region allows for greater throughput of passengers with commensurate increase in local economic activity,as well as higher service levels to the benefit of the local travelling community.The increase in number of flights and destinations may in itself again represent a better connectivity performance.This is what we call the virtuous circle of connectivity.Connectivity by air facilitates economic growth but can also act as its catalyst.As such,connectivity can be a central element in any airport’s or government’s strategy to demonstrate its license to grow.

Figure1 The virtuous circle of connectivity Source: ACI Europe ＆ SEO (2014).Airport industry connectivity report.

Figure2 Total connectivity by air between Europe and Asia has increased considerably between 2004 and 2014

Development of Connectivity by Air in the Europe to Asia Market

ASEM aims to increase cooperation between its Asian and European members as to enhance connectivity,regional integration and economic prosperity.So where do we stand in terms of the connectivity by air between Europe and Asia?

Although a full connectivity analysis is beyond the scope of this short contribution,according to the Airport industry connectivity report4 by ACI Europe and SEO,connectivity by air from European airports to Asia takes account —together with the connectivity to North America- of the majority of intercontinental connections from European airports.In addition,Asia is closingin terms of the connectivity provided to European airports compared to other world regions (figure 2).Connectivity between Europe and Asian airports showed the highest absolute growth figures of all world regions served by European airports,reflecting the growing economic linkages between both regions in terms of trade but also tourism.Between 2004 and 2014,total Europe-Asia connectivity —the sum of all direct flights and indirect connections with a transfer at an intermediate hub airport,weighted for the quality of each connection- almost doubled (figure 2).Direct connectivity increased by about 50%,whereas indirect connectivity (the lion’s share) increased by 90%.

Instruments to Achieve Connectivity Excellence

Air connectivity growth is crucial for further strengthening of the economic and social relationships between Asia and Europe.The good news is that connectivity by air has grown considerably during the past decade.At the same time,we notice that many opportunities for connectivity growth exist.

Which role can governments and industry stakeholders play to achieve connectivity excellence in the Europe to Asia market? We highlight four of them.

Opening up of aviation markets

The opening up of aviation markets is the first and most important instrument to achieve connectivity growth.And governments are in the lead as far as air service agreements are concerned.Opening up aviation markets —ranging from less tight bilateral restrictions to fully liberalised bilateral or multilateral agreements- stimulates air service growth (frequencies,new destinations) and airline competition.More passengers will travel at lower fares.Airline cost efficiency increases.More opportunities are created for cooperation between European and Asian carriers,for example through codeshare agreements and alliances.Connectivity in liberalised markets will grow.

Strong hub carriers

The European network carriers such as Air France-KLM,Lufthansa and British Airways are crucial of the direct flight connections between Europe and Asia,besides the services of their Asian counterparts.The hub networks these carriers operate allow them to achieve sufficient passenger density (combined transfer and local demand) to operate direct services between Asia en Europe,which would not be profitable based on local demand alone.Yet,the European network carriers are under strong pressure from competition from within Europe (low-cost carriers such as easyJet and Ryanair) and from outside Europe (mainly carriers from the Gulf States and Turkey).European hub carriers themselves are first and foremost responsible for improving their competitive position,by reducing unit costs and by searching for further synergies through mergers and take-overs.

Competitive visit costs,airport capacity and level playing field

Besides,governments need to acknowledge the role played by network carriers in the connectivity performance of large metropolitan areas and ensure the right conditions -within the boundaries of their own legal systems- for these carriers to compete effectively.This means amongst other things the availability of sufficient airport capacity,competitive cost levels (e.g.airport charges) and efficient airspace design.Also safeguarding fair competition in aviation markets —so that carriers compete according to the same set of rules- is crucial for a strong and healthy Asian and European airline industry,and thus eventually for the connectivity between both regions.

Identify the “white spots ”on the map

Connectivity has grown considerably between Europe and Asia during the last decade.But what are the “white spots”? In other words,what are the routes that already have enough traffic potential for a direct service,but are currently not directly served? In which markets are restrictions in bilateral agreements or airport congestion bottlenecks for enhancing connectivity by air? Which potential new routes between Asia and Europe are at the brink of having enough demand and could be unleashed with the right incentives? Which potential new routes may have enough demand in a few years time? And,which new air services between Asia and Europe would business communities in both regions appreciate?

Conclusion

Connectivity by air is key to strengthening the economic and social relationships between Europe and Asia to the mutual benefit of both regions.The ASEM dialogue rightly recognizes the economic value of connectivity.Connectivity by air between Asia and Europe,both direct and indirect,has increased significantly during the past ten years.Nevertheless,many opportunities exist for improving connectivity levels.Opening up of aviation agreements,identification of white spots’,competitive cost levels and sufficient airport capacity are among the important avenues governments and industry stakeholders may have to explore further.