Qian-qi YIN*, Guo-hua FANG

College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. China

The second-class evaluation is performed based on the target layer and criterion layer, which can be expressed as

Harmoniousness analysis of total amount control of water use

Qian-qi YIN*, Guo-hua FANG

College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. China

Based on the fundamental principles of total amount control of water use, the harmony theory was used in this study to develop a concept of the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use. Based on this concept, the harmoniousness of total amount control of water use was analyzed in terms of the supply and demand of water resources, water resources management, water use benefits, and water-saving level. An evaluation index system of the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use was established, and a method for calculation of the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive analysis (FCA) methods. The new evaluation index system was applied to a certain area in Jiangsu Province, China. The degree of harmony of total amount control of water use over this area was calculated for different years. Results indicate that the evaluation index system and calculation method proposed in this study are feasible, and such a harmoniousness analysis can provide scientific references for the strict water resources management system that will be implemented in China in the near future.

total amount control of water use; degree of harmony; evaluation index system; quantification method; analytic hierarchy process method; fuzzy comprehensive analysis method

1 Introduction

Water resources are widely regarded as the most essential natural assets for humans, wildlife, and ecosystems. Most people believe that shortage of water resources will be the primary factor constraining economic and social sustainable development in the 21st century. In 2011, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council released their decision on Acceleration of Water Conservancy Reform and Development, which formally claimed that a strict water resources management system would be established in the next five years. Then, the Ministry of Water Resources of China established the Red Line implementation scheme for the future utilization of water resources so as to strictly control the total amount of water use. Studies on total amount control of water use have mainly focused on control methods, statistical indices, and the development of evaluation systems. Ren (2005) comprehensively analyzed the relationship between the total amount control of water use and quota management, suggesting that their combination is rathernecessary in practice. Cao (2007) compared various control methods for water use across the Taihu Basin. Lin and Zou (2010) discussed the statistical indices and the evaluation system of total amount control of water use in detail. Zeng et al. (2011) adopted several control indices to investigate the total amount of water use for the main channel and branches of the Yangtze River. Li et al. (2012) analyzed the variation trends of the total amount of water use, water consumption of industrial departments, and water use efficiency within the Yangtze River Basin and its second-grade zone of water resources since the 1980s, and then proposed a set of control indices of the total water use for the Yangtze River Basin. Wang et al. (2012) comprehensively analyzed and discussed the principles, baselines, methods, and technical processes for determining the control index of total water use. However, few researchers have considered the time continuity, the spatial equilibrium, and the system coordination for the total amount control of water use, and few have proposed a level that the total amount control of water use should reach, reflecting the strict water resources management criteria.

As a comprehensive multi-dimensional description of the operational state of a system at a certain time, the degree of harmony has been widely used in large-scale water resources systems. Wang et al. (2003) proposed the concept of the degree of harmony of water resources allocation and developed an evaluation index system to quantitatively analyze the harmoniousness of water resources allocation. Aiming at the optimal use of limited water resources, Chang et al. (2004) employed a harmony index as a feedback regulator to adjust the simulation results, which can provide the theoretical and technical support for sustainable development of water resources in the Yellow River Basin. Wang et al. (2007) used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to evaluate the degree of harmony of water resources allocation. Li et al. (2007) discussed the harmoniousness level and the principle of a complicated micro-system of water resources. Taking Zhengzhou City as an example, Zuo et al. (2008) established a quantitative index system for human-water harmony and developed a method for calculating the degree of harmony. Shen et al. (2008) developed a model of the degree of harmony for the settlement system in terms of the social system, economic system, environmental system, and resource system, and the model was applied in the Santongbao Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Zuo (2009) proposed five elements of the harmony theory and a degree of harmony equation from the view of mathematics, which was used in water allocation in the Yellow River Basin. Ma and Zheng (2011) used the normal-efficiency data envelopment analysis (NEDEA) and super-efficiency data envelopment analysis (SEDEA) models to calculate the degree of harmony between water resources and economic development of Beijing City. Results show that the SEDEA model is suitable for local regional water resources management. Hou et al. (2011) constructed a mathematical model for evaluating the degree of harmony of water resources utilization, and this model was used to quantitatively analyze the degree of harmony of water resources utilization in the Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. Deng et al. (2012) set up an evaluation system for thewater allocation satisfaction degree and fairness degree, and this system was tested in the Fuhe River Basin. Based on the harmony theory, Guo and Zuo (2012) developed a water resources management model.

There are few studies on the total amount control of water use in foreign countries. Moreover, studies on the degree of harmony have mainly focused on management science, automated control, environmental science, and so on. Few of them have involved the field of water resources. Considering the current status of Chinese water resources management, in this study we first combined the harmony theory with the total amount control of water use from the perspective of sustainable development. Based on four aspects, the supply and demand of water resources, water resources management, water use benefits, and the water-saving level, and a definition of connotation of the degree of harmony of the total amount control of water use, the distribution, use efficiency, and water-saving level of water resources were quantified in time and space using an index system and corresponding assessment standards. Through guaranteeing steady improvement in the level of water resources management and water-saving level throughout society, and considering the equilibrium of water use efficiency, we realized the rational control of total water use based on the supply and demand balance of water resources so as to provide a guide for reasonable use of water resources. The work presented here is expected to aid in the healthy, sustainable, and rapid development of economy and offer scientific support for better implementation of the strict water resources management system in China.

2 Harmoniousness of total amount control of water use

2.1 Connotation of total amount control of water use

Total amount control of water use is the macroscopic management of water use quantification, which mainly includes establishing a water allocation plan; proposing permitted values of total water intake at different levels; determining the total amount control indices of water use, first for the river basin, then for administrative regions at all levels, and finally for all kinds of water users; coordinating a quota index of water use; and implementing water resources management according to the comprehensive planning of water resources. Its objective is to make total water use comply with the socioeconomic development and water resources characteristics (Ren 2005).

2.2 Basic principles of total amount control of water use

Basic principles of total amount control of water use include the principles of systematization, equity, harmoniousness, and economy.

(1) Principle of systematization (Cao 2007): considering a river basin the basic unit for rational allocation, the issues causing the constraints of water resources shortage on socioeconomic sustainable development should be resolved.

(2) Principle of equity: water resources are owned by the state, and the water users at all levels of society have rights to share and allocate the water resources so as to achieve coordinated development.

(3) Principle of harmoniousness (Wang et al. 2003): according to the flexible characteristics of the total amount control of water use, domestic water use, industrial water use, and ecological water use are coordinated to optimize systemic comprehensive benefits and long-term benefits using quantitative and qualitative analysis.

(4) Principle of economy: development efficiency of water resources, water use benefits, and water-saving level are improved by means of the optimized allocation.

2.3 Harmoniousness of total amount control of water use

Total amount control of water use, which is a multi-layer, multi-disciplinary, and multi-sector complex problem, has a strong basis in systematization, scientific rigor, and policy considerations. Harmoniousness has abundant connotations that emphasize the relevant components and overall coordinated development. Therefore, it can well describe the relations in total amount control of water use and comprehensively reflect the development, distribution, utilization, and saving level of water resources when it is introduced into the total amount control of water use.

Harmoniousness describes whether the system possesses conditions and an environment, which give full play to the initiative and creativity of system members and subsystems, as well as the overall coordination of activity of the system members and subsystems (Xi 2000). Harmonious total amount control of water use occurs when a certain quantity of water resources are distributed to water users at different places and times through consideration of the harmonious development and water allocation plan as the general principle and reference, respectively. Through coordinated balance, the utilization ratio of water resources, water use benefits, and water-saving level can be improved so as to reduce water users with a high degree of water use and low output per unit of water use, and increase water users that are beneficial to social sustainable development. In this way, the integral function of the total amount control system of water use can be maximized according to the balance between supply and demand.

The harmoniousness of total amount control of water use includes four components: the harmoniousness of water resources supply and demand, harmoniousness of water resources management, harmoniousness of water use benefits, and harmoniousness of the water-saving level. They can be simplified as supply and demand degree (SDD), management degree (MD), benefit degree (BD), and water-saving degree (WSD). If the values of MD and WSD increase, the value of BD will rise so that the limited water resources can meet the needs of socioeconomic development to the greatest extent. The balance of supply and demand of water resources will occur under the condition of a modest increase in the water demand during rational control of the total water use. The harmoniousness of total amount control of wateruse can be expressed as follows:

where B1is the harmoniousness of water resources supply and demand, B2is the harmoniousness of water resources management, B3is the harmoniousness of water use benefits, B4is the harmoniousness of the water-saving level, and f is a function of B1, B2, B3, and B4.

3 Measurement of harmoniousness of total amount control of water use

3.1 Degree of harmony of total amount control of water use

The degree of harmony of total amount control of water use is a quantitative index that reflects the components of total amount control of water use and its operational aspects, and demonstrates whether the system is in harmony with the external environment under a certain condition (Wang and Zhang 2006). Its basic functions include:

(1) Systematically evaluating the internal functions of the total amount control system of water use and reflecting each of its components and its mutual coordination.

(2) Reflecting coordination between subsystems of the total amount control system of water use.

(3) Comprehensively reflecting the relationship between SDD, MD, BD, and WSD under the condition of control of the total water use.

(4) Entirely reflecting the mutual coordination relationship between the total amount control system of water use and the external environment under certain temporal, spatial, and technological conditions.

(5) Specifically reflecting the reasonableness of water allocation and quota sets, as well as water-saving efficiency.

3.2 Calculation of degree of harmony

The value of the degree of harmony for total amount control of water use ranges between 0 and 1. A larger degree of harmony means more harmonious total amount control of water use. An evaluation index system of the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use can be established based on the demands of components in internal systems and the external environment, quantitative and qualitative analysis as well as judgment can then be made, and finally, the degree of harmony can be determined using the related theory and method of fuzzy mathematics.

3.2.1 Establishment of index system

According to the implementation process of the total amount control of water use, the index system mainly includes three kinds of indices: the target index, dynamic index, and examination index (Cao 2007). The target index is the permitted total water intake that can bedetermined using a water allocation plan or water demand forecast. The dynamic index consists of the control water level and discharge at the representative stations of the study area, which can be collected from related records of water resources comprehensive planning and historical monitoring data. This study focused on quantifying the degree of harmony from the viewpoint of development, distribution, and utilization of water resources, as well as water use and water-saving benefits. Therefore, the established evaluation index system aims for the examination indices.

According to the connotation of harmoniousness of total amount control of water use, the establishment of the index system abides by the following principles (Lin and Zou 2010; Wang and Zhang 2006):

(1) Principle of systematization: each index is created to reflect the degree of harmony of the total amount control of water use from a certain aspect. Moreover, these indices can complement each other.

(2) Principle of scientific rigor: the concept of each index is explicit and clear, and these indices can be used to measure the degree of control of total water use in the evaluated region.

(3) Principle of operability: each index must be normalized and can be measured. The quantitative index should be acquired through relevant departments or determined by making calculations of obtained data. Indices that are difficult to quantify should be avoided when the index system is established.

(4) Principle of comparability: the index system should remain within the same statistical range and at the same statistical caliber and consider the requirement of longitudinal and horizontal comparisons in different periods.

(5) Principle of independence: overlapping of information covered by the indices in the index system should be avoided and their relative independence should be ensured.

Based on the harmoniousness analysis of total amount control of water use and principles of index system establishment, the evaluation index system of the degree of harmony of the total amount control of water use consists of three layers in accordance with AHP: the target layer, criterion layer, and index layer. The target layer has a single target, which is the degree of harmony A of total amount control of water use, the criterion layer includes four sub-targets, and the index layer contains 25 indices (Table 1).

The properties of different indices in the evaluation index system of the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use are different. The initial values of these indices might have issues of different dimensions or a wide difference in magnitude that must be solved through dimensionless processing so that they will be comparable. Some indices are positively correlated with the degree of harmony, which means that larger index value enhances harmoniousness, an example being the utilization rate of irrigation water. This kind of index is called a forward-type index. In addition, some other indices are negatively correlated with the degree of harmony, meaning a lesser value with a higher degree ofharmony. This kind of index is called a backward-type index. The specific dimensionless processing method (Wang et al. 2003) is as follows:

For a forward-type index:

For a backward-type index:

where R is the evaluation index value after dimensionless processing, R1is the actual evaluation index value, and R2is the evaluation benchmark value that is equal to the average annual value of the evaluation index in this study.

Table 1 Evaluation index system of degree of harmony of total amount control of water use

3.2.2 Multi-hierarchy evaluation of harmoniousness index

There are a great deal of indices that reflect the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use, so the multi-hierarchy comprehensive evaluation had to be employed in this study. According to the index system shown in Table 1, the secondary evaluation method was selected.

The first-class evaluation was performed based on the criterion layer and index layer, and the evaluation result was regarded as one factor in the second-class evaluation:

where Biis the first-class evaluation result of the ith classification; m is the number of classification of the criterion layer (m = 4); n is the number of indices in the ith classification of the criterion layer; Diis the harmonious membership degree vector of indices in the ith classification, and Di=(Di1,Di2,… ,Din), with Dijbeing the harmonious membership degree of the jth index in the ith classification; and Wiis the weight vector of indices for the ith classification, and Wi=(ωi1,ωi2,… ,ωin), with ωijbeing the weight of the jth index in the ith classification and

The second-class evaluation is performed based on the target layer and criterion layer, which can be expressed as

where B=(B1,B2,…,Bm), and P=(P1,P2,… ,Pm), with Pibeing the weight of the ith index in the criterion layer.

The AHP method was used to calculate the weight of the index. The primary steps (Huang 1999) include: (1) determining the evaluation target and a set of evaluation indices, (2) comparing the relative importance of two indices in the same layer using an expert investigation method (note: normally, the five-class quantitative algorithm is used to establish the judgment matrix), (3) computing the weight of the index using a mathematical method (e.g., the square root method, and sum-product method), and (4) examining the consistency of each judgment matrix created above (note: if it meets the check conditions, the weight distribution will be considered a rational result; otherwise, the judgment matrix is adjusted until satisfactory consistency is reached).

3.2.3 Determination of harmonious membership degree of index

The harmonious membership degree of each evaluation index is the degree of harmony that each index can reach, and its value ranges from 0 to 1. The harmonious membership degree is divided into five hierarchies (Wang et al. 2003): 0.9, 0.7, 0.5, 0.3, and 0.1, representing states that are very harmonious, rather harmonious, harmonious to a common degree, disharmonious, and extremely disharmonious, respectively.

All the indices must be quantified. For those qualitative indices unsuitable for quantification, the Delphi method is used to judge and assess them. After the quantification processing and dimensionless processing, the hierarchy of harmonious membership degree of total amount control of water use is determined according to the judgment standards.

4 Case study

Harmoniousness analysis of total amount control of water use was performed over a certain area in Jiangsu Province, China using the methods described above. The study area was located in the northwest of Jiangsu Province, which has a typical warm and semi-humid monsoon climate, and an annual precipitation of about 830.5 mm. The surface runoff has significant annual and inter-annual variations, 85% of which occur intensively in the months from June to September. Spatially, most of the precipitation is distributed in the eastern regions, and the external water is transferred for water replenishment in serious water shortage periods.

The steps for calculation of the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use are as follows:

(1) The weight vectors of evaluation indices are determined. The weight vectors of evaluation indices were obtained using the AHP method:

(2) The harmonious membership degree vectors of indices are determined. Each evaluation index for the study area in 2010 was nondimensionalized using the index quantification approach and dimensionless processing method. The average value of the index from 2000 to 2010 was calculated as the evaluation benchmark value for each index. Then, the harmonious membership degree vector was determined according to five hierarchies:

(3) The harmoniousness degree are calculated using the comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the quantitative data above, the secondary evaluation was performed and the results are as follows:

A value of 1 for the degree of harmony represents the most harmonious state, while themost disharmonious state is represented by 0. The results show that the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use in 2010 was 0.492 in the study area, which can be regarded as a state that is harmonious to a common degree. The degree of harmony of water resources supply and demand was 0.475, which suggests an existing gap between supply and demand. The degree of harmony of water resources management was 0.418, indicating that the level of water resources management was not high. Therefore, it is especially necessary to invest a great deal in management technology and develop the related water resources monitoring system. The degree of harmony of water use benefits was 0.597, indicating that the water use efficiency was apparently improved even under the present condition of water resources shortage. The degree of harmony of water-saving level was 0.555, suggesting that water-saving construction in this region has exhibited significant achievements.

According to some related achievements (e.g., comprehensive water resources planning, and water-saving construction and planning), we further forecasted the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use in 2015 and 2020 for the study area. The degree of harmony of total amount control of water use in 2015 will reach 0.615, which is close to a rather harmonious state. The degree of harmony for 2020 will be 0.694, which shows a more harmonious state. On the whole, the degree of harmony in this area has a clear increasing trend. This is because of the remarkable improvement of the water resources management level and the significant increase in water use benefits in the fields of industry, agriculture, and living. In a word, in order to ensure the harmonious development of total water use throughout society, regions experiencing water resources shortage should hold that water resources management is crucial, treat water-saving construction as an important indicator, and utilize the current limited water resources to support the sustainable development of the economy under the condition of maintaining the balance between supply and demand to the greatest extent.

5 Conclusions

The harmony theory was integrated into the total amount control of water use in this study. The concept of harmoniousness of the total amount control of water use was described. The harmoniousness of total amount control of water use was analyzed in terms of the supply and demand of water resources, water resources management, water use benefits, and water-saving level. Based on this, a new evaluation index system for the degree of harmony of the total amount control of water use was constructed, and the calculation method for the degree of harmony of total amount control of water use was presented. This evaluation system was applied to a certain area in Jiangsu Province, China. Results indicate that the proposed index system and calculation method can effectively evaluate and forecast the control degree of the total water use for the study area. The evaluation system can be applicable to similar areas, and it can also provide some useful decision-making references for better implementation of the total water use control in areas experiencing water shortage.

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(Edited by Yan LEI)

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*Corresponding author (e-mail: hhu_yinqianqi@126.com)

Received Sep. 8, 2012; accepted May 28, 2013