Hu Shaocong

The Implications of New Thinking in Turkish Diplomacy

Hu Shaocong

Since it came to power in the election of November 2002 and especially since it won re-election in 2007, the Justice and Development Party of Turkey (AKP) has progressively developed new diplomatic concepts, thinking and principles in accordance with the domestic development requirements and the evolving world situation in the 21st century. In their view, countries in the world are being confronted with a new strategic environment because the current world is being transformed into a new international system. The political, economic and social disequilibrium between states is prominent, common challenges for the countries have been intensified, and countries in the greater Middle-East region are facing arduous tasks in peace, democracy and development. The Cold War strategy of group confrontational geopolitics is no longer suitable for this new international situation and environment. Turkey should be inspired by the Islamic tradition, as well as its Ottoman history of multiethnic and multicultural tolerance, in order cope with the regional and global issues in an inclusive and non-confrontational manner. Turkey should treat all players in the region as equals, and resolve regional conflicts through economic integration and political and cultural dialogues. In this manner, Turkey will promote the establishment of a just and fair international system with broad participation and peaceful coexistence among multilateral forces.

I

In light of the above-mentioned new thinking, the AKP-led government has taken certain steps to readjust Turkish foreign policy:

1. To redefine Turkey’s position and push forward a strategy that focuses on both the West and the East

During the Cold War period, East–West confrontations played a dominant role in the global and regional arena. Turkey was a“flank” country belonging to the Western alliance and Turkish foreign and security policies were subordinated to the strategies of the West and NATO. In the wake of the Cold War, especially since the beginning of the 21st century, the global strategic environment been affected by a number of changes. Western countries have found their strength declining on relative terms, and emerging powers like Turkey have been rising rapidly. Turkey’s consciousness of becoming a power is gradually growing. Some strategists think that Turkey, situated at the junction of three continents, is the centre linking the African and Eurasian continents. If Ankara is taken as the centre of Turkey, there are 22 countries within a radius of 1,000 km and 77 countries within a radius of 3,000 km. As an intersection of multiple cultures, a central force in the greater Middle-East and a country of diversity, Turkey is an emerging power with multiple influences. Proceeding from this, Turkey repositioned itself from being the “flank” or “outer ring” of Europe and NATO to the“centre” of the region. Turkey has made major readjustments to its foreign and security policies according to its new positioning. It has gone from being subordinated to the strategy of the West and NATO to pursuing its own “strategic depth”.

Proceeding from this new strategic positioning, Turkey simultaneously carries out its Westward and Eastward diplomatic strategies. It has continued its traditional relationship with the United States and Europe while making efforts to develop relations with its neighbors, as well as emerging powers like China and India. All of this indicates that it is trying to establish a stable and peaceful environment through independent, balanced and comprehensive diplomacy, all of which advance its objective of becoming a big power.

2. To actively implement good-neighbourly diplomacy in order to improve relations with its neighbours in an allround and substantial manner

In 2004, Turkey and Russia established their “multiple partnership” agreement. Since then, the two nations have witnessed rapid progress in their ties. In 2010 the Turkish Prime Minister and Russian President established a highlevel cooperation council that serves as an inter-governmental mechanism to push forward cooperation in various fields and levels. In 2008, Russia became Turkey’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade valued at more than $ 37.8 billion. Even though the bilateral trade value fell in 2009 and 2010 in the aftermath of the financial crisis, Russia is second only to Germany as Turkey’s trading partner.

Turkey makes great efforts to push forward its bilateral and multilateral relations with Arab states. A high-level mechanism for consultations with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan was established, and strategic dialogues with the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League have been conducted frequently. The Turkish-Arab Cooperation Forum was founded in October 2008, and it now plays a leading role in the cooperation between Turkey and the Arab states. Turkey has signed Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia, and has reached visa exemption agreements with Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Libya, Tunisia and Morocco. Turkey’s trade with Arab states was valued at $37 billion in 2008 and $29 billion in 2009. From 2002 to 2009, The direct investments from Arab states into Turkey reached up more than $ 6.2 billion, and Arab tourists to Turkey increased from 400,000 to 1.4 million.

Turkey continues developing bilateral relations with Iran, advancing cooperation between the two countries in the political, economic, cultural and regional spheres. The Turkish prime minister and president visited Iran in September 2009 and February 2011 respectively, and the Iranian president reciprocated a visit to Turkey in December 2010. Turkish-Iranian economic cooperation and trade has experienced rapid growth, with bilateral trade value surpassing $10 billion in 2010.

Since implementing its good-neighbourly policy, Turkey has enhanced its ties with Greece, Armenia and other nations with which Turkey has had historical grievances. Turkey and Greece established a mechanism for strategic consultations at the level of the cabinet. Although the dispute over Cyprus remains prevalent in the bilateral relations, there have been some signs of amelioration since Turkey expressed its willingness to accept the UN’s Annan Plan for the settlement of the Cyprus issue. A breakthrough was achieved when Turkey signed the communiqué for establishing diplomatic relations with its most problematic neighbor, Armenia, in 2009. Despite twists and turns in Turkey-Israel relations in the last two years, the two countries have maintained cooperation in quite a few areas, since Turkey is one of the few countries in the region to recognize Israel diplomatically.

Turkey’s good-neighborly policy also acts as a balance to and compensation for its ties with the EU. Turkey deems to its membership in the EU to be its “first and the foremost important strategic objective”, and it has raised the target of becoming an EU member by 2023 when Turkey celebrates the 100th anniversary of its founding. However, due to opposition from some EU countries and the unsettled Cyprus issue, Turkey has been handicapped in its EU application, and negotiations on 18 relevant topics are yet to be concluded smoothly. Frustrated by its failed membership bid to the West, Turkey has to turn eastwards to build up its own strength through cooperation with neighbors and await future opportunities for its eventual acceptance into the EU.

3. To attach more importance to its independence while maintaining strategic ties with the United States

Turkey prioritizes relations with Washington, holding that the maintenance of its traditional alliance with the United States will have great bearing on its overall diplomacy. In 2006, the two countries set up a structural dialogue mechanism for exchanging views and promoting strategic partnership, and in 2007 they formulated an action plan to further develop their cooperation in various fields. Ankara’s ties with the United States have grown stronger since U.S. President Barack Obama took office. Praising the U.S.-Turkey relationship as a model partnership, President Obama listed Turkey as the first Middle Eastern country to visit after he was sworn into office. Turkey advocated attaching more importance to economic and cultural cooperation with the United States on the basis of military and strategic cooperation. In December 2009, with the goal of bolstering economic cooperation and trade the two countries set up a strategic framework for economic and business cooperation.

Turkey places considerable emphasis on independence with regards to issues that concern its fundamental interests. To maintain a stable environment and prevent the Kurdish issue from impacting its domestic situation, Turkey firmly opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq and refused the American troops to pass through Turkish territory to open up the northern front in the war against Iraq. Turkey opposes the settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue by sanctions and military means, and it voted against sanctions toward Iran in the United Nations in June 2010. Turkey has repeatedly taken independent stances on major regional issues, and Washington has gradually taken a more tolerant attitude towards Turkey’s maintenance of its interests and recognizes its regional power status with relative independence. Turkey wants the United States, in its“model partnership” with Turkey, to adopt a more inclusive attitude, practice multilateralism and settle problems by nonmilitary means. These elements are the political basis deemed by Turkey for its cooperation with Washington in the new era.

4. To be actively involved in regional affairs

In the eyes of Turkey, persistent regional turbulence undermines its peripheral stability and economic development. Under the guidance of its diplomatic concepts that emphasize comprehensiveness and inclusiveness, Turkey works to realize the “security of all countries” in its peripheral areas, which include moderate Sunni countries, and countries and regions like Iran, Syria and the Gaza Strip. To this end, Turkey, by virtue of its extensive connections and influence in the Middle East, actively involves itself in the regional affairs. It has energetically advanced reconciliation between forces in Palestine; made efforts to mediate conflicts between Syria and Israel; encouraged Sunnis to participate in Iraq’s parliamentary election in 2005; and helped break the deadlock in the formation of an Iraqi government in 2010. In addition, Turkey actively engages itself in the issues of the Balkans, Caucasus and Afghanistan in order to further to exert its influence.

By getting involved in regional affairs, Turkey hopes to create favorable conditions for the settlement of regional issues by establishing equal treatment and mutual trust between countries and regions. In the meanwhile, through political dialogues, economic cooperation and cultural exchanges, Ankara also hopes to build up an atmosphere for regional stability and development. It strives to nurture a common identity among countries in the region and explore new ways for regional development, thus playing a leading role in the creation of a new regional order.

II

The new thinking of Turkish diplomacy reflects changes in its security strategy and economic interests, and it also reflects the need of the AKP to maintain its ruling position.

1. The new concept in Turkish foreign policy is in line with the changes in Turkish development strategy and security environment.

Although Turkey has maintained its alliance with the United States since the end of the Cold War, the environment for Turkey’s national strategy and security have nonetheless undergone major changes. When the AKP came to power in November 2002, the Party implemented strict government spending policies with the help of the International Monetary Fund. As a result, Turkey recovered progressively from the 2001 financial crisis and achieved fairly high economic growth. It is a major emerging power and a member of the G20, with its GDP ranking sixteenth in the world. Turkey’s objective for its national development is to become one of the top ten economies in the world by 2023 when Turkey will celebrate its centennial anniversary. To accomplish this goal, Turkey needs a peaceful and stable environment both in its periphery and around the world. Turkey opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq as well as the Israeli military strike on Gaza. It did not accept the Iranian threats exaggerated by the United States and Israel and it disapproved of sanctions against Iran. In sum, it has tried to avoid spiraling contradictions between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. These policies taken by Turkey serve the purpose of maintaining a stable situation in its periphery and creating a peaceful environment for its own development.

Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the Kurdish region has achieved almost full independence. The Kurdish Workers’Party (PKK) in the southeast border area of Turkey has become active. In its security strategy Turkey prioritizes maintaining the unity of its territorial sovereignty and containing the PKK’s separation activities. At the same time, Turkey has intensified its cooperation with both Iran and Syria in safeguarding borders since the two countries are also confronted with Kurdish separatism. Getting actively involved in the Iraqi affairs, Turkey stands for the unity of Iraqi territorial sovereignty and guards against Kurdish independence in Iraq. Because Israel has taken a different position toward the PKK, bilateral relations between Israel and Turkey have been affected.

2. Diversified economic interests affect Turkey’s diplomacy with its neighbouring countries.

The European Union is the largest market for Turkish exports, and the EU is also a major investor and high-tech supplier for Turkey. Membership in the EU is a matter of tremendous economic interest for Turkey. With its fast growing economic relations with other countries in the region, Turkey finds its economic interests increasingly expanding. From 2002 to 2009, Turkish exports to the EU fell from 56% of its total exports to 46%, while its exports to Asia, including the Middle East, increased from 14% to 25%. Imports from the EU dropped from 50% to 40%, and imports from Asia grew from 19% to 27%. The Turkish building industry is very competitive in the Middle East, Central Asia and Caucasus, and its overseas business is concentrated in this region. Turkish companies have contracts of large-scale construction projects in Astana, Doha, Cairo, and Batu Mi, among other cities.

Energy interests have become an important impetus for Turkey to carry out good-neighborly diplomacy.Turkey shares borders with energy-abundant Middle Eastern countries, Central Asian countries, and Russia – altogether third-fourths of the world’s proven oil and gas resources are reserved in Turkey’s neighboring countries. As a result, Turkey considers its role as a regional energy hub to be a critical part of its strategy for economic development. Turkey plans to invest $130 billion in the energy sector before 2020 in order to accomplish its goal of transporting at least 6% of global energy via its territories. The east-west oil and gas pipeline network in Turkey will include the Nabucco pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline, the Iran-Turkey pipeline, and the Romania-Bulgaria-Turkey pipeline; on the north-south axis, there will be the Blue Stream Pipeline and the South Stream pipeline from Russia and stretching across the Black Sea, and the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline inside Turkey. Turkey has worked to develop its relations with Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Greece, Bulgaria and other countries, and it has made efforts with these neighbours to build cross-border oil and gas pipelines.

3. The new diplomatic concept reflects the consideration for a solid ruling position of the AKP.

Turkish domestic politics are sensitive to public opinions. Over the years, anti-American and anti-Israel sentiments have been on the rise in Turkey and its neighbouring states. The AKP, in compliance with the popular within its borders, opposes the Middle Eastern policies adopted by the United States and Israel, and this has garnered the party much support from the general public. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan quarreled with Israeli Prime Minister Simon Peres on the issue of the Gaza blockade at the Davos World Economic Forum in January 2009, and he left the conference room angrily. The Turkish government supported the international humanitarian assistance to Gaza, condemned Israel, and demanded an apology and just compensation for the Israeli attacks on the Turkish humanitarian aid ships in July 2010. The actions taken by the Turkish government and the leadership won acclaim from the people in Turkey and other Arab countries. Prime Minister Erdogan has experienced a rapid rise in popularity in the Middle East.

The foreign policy of the AKP reflects Turkey’s unique demographic situation as well. The population of Bosnians, Albanians, Chechens and Abkhazians in Turkey outnumber those in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Chechen and Abkhazia respectively. In addition, there are many Azerbaijanis and Georgians living in Turkey. The conflicts that occurred in these regions and the impacts on their related ethnic groups can find traces in Turkey’s domestic politics. Therefore, the AKP is actively involved in related regional affairs in conformity with the demands of ethnic groups in Turkey. The pragmatic foreign policy has not only helped the AKP win a great number of votes, resulting in a successful reelection in 2007, but also laid a solid foundation for the 2011 general election.

4. The new diplomatic concept comes from the Turkish leadership’s understanding and reflection on the multicultural nature of the country.

Under the impacts of geographic, historical and ethnic integration, the common identity and the social culture of Turkey are not easily characterized: secular but also Islamic, Western but also Asian. Such a mix of influences demands a spirit of inclusiveness and peaceful coexistence. Situated in the Middle East, a region with complicated contradictions and frequent conflicts, Turkey has to treat regional issues in a non-disruptive and non-confrontational manner, stressing interactions, interdependence, and coexistence among countries.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, among other AKP leaders, are Muslims that come from families and regions with strong Islamic backgrounds. At the same time, they also accept Western democratic principles. They are grounded in their country and the region, but at the same time they have a wide international horizon; they have great pride in Turkish history and culture, but at the same time they have a sober understanding of the real situation of the country. With a flexible and pragmatic governing style, they prioritize economic and security issues in their diplomatic performance, although they are committed to Islamic religion and ideology.

III

Turkey’s new diplomatic approach has exerted definite impact to the development orientation of the country as well as to the regional stability and balance of power in the region. However, the impacts and effectiveness of policies are limited due Turkey’s own strength.

1. The Turkish multi-cultural coexistence and its democratic model of combining secularism with Islam play an important role in the development orientation of countries in the region.

The Middle East is at present facing major changes. Since former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak stepped down, people in Egypt have been wondering whether Turkey should be taken as a model in which religion, through organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood, is involved in politics; they question whether religion should have a part in the establishment of a new democratic system, or whether a secular system should be kept with the military playing a role. The Muslim Brotherhood took a cautious and moderate stance in the overthrow of Mr. Mubarak, and they made an official declaration asking that people “don’t consider the Islamic movements in Afghanistan, Taliban and us equal. If you are going to compare us with a country, you can compare our movement with the Justice and Development Party in Turkey. We are an Islamic movement, which is in harmony with the world, just like them”.

2. Turkey makes efforts to carry out its good-neighbourly diplomacy, and it is committed to settling conflicts with neighboring countries through interaction and dialogues, thus playing a positive role in stabilizing regional situation.

Although Turkey closely watches the Kurdish drive for independence in Iraq, it has persisted in keeping a relation of dialogue and cooperation with the Kurdish local government. In October 2010, a Turkish Consulate General was set up in Al Bill and cooperation with Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous government was achieved to fight against PKK armed forces. The policies implemented by Turkey all attempted to prevent the Kurdish issue from becoming intensified so as to avoid more troubles in this problematic region.

Turkey’s mediations in the conflicts between Palestine and Israel and between Syria and Israel, in domestic problems in Lebanon and Iraq, in controversies between America and Iran, in the Balkans, Pakistan and Afghanistan, have all played a positive role in easing tensions in the Middle East, the Balkan region, and South Asia. In 2008 Turkey coordinated five rounds of indirect talks between Syria and Israel to discuss issues concerning the return of the Golan Heights and a Middle East Peace agreement. Although the talks were interrupted by Israel’s invasion of the Gaza strip, relations between Syria and Israel have become more positive. In May 2010, Turkey worked together with Brazil to reach an agreement with Iran on the exchange of nuclear fuel. The agreement failed to come to fruition due to American opposition, however all the parties concerned recognized Turkey’s positive and mediating role in relaxing the tensions on the Iranian nuclear issue. In January 2011, a second round of meetings on the Iranian nuclear issue was conducted in Istanbul.

In its regional diplomacy, Turkey has shown increasing independence and exerted leverage on the balance of power, undermining America’s traditional dominance in the regional landscape. The Turkish policy of enhancing ties with Iran and Syria and opposing Israeli military operations has impacted the U.S. strategy of controlling the Middle East with its allies (Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc.) and suppressing countries like Iran and Syria, as well as forces like Hezbollah and Hamas. Turkey has stepped up its cooperation with Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria, made repeated efforts to mediate conflicts between Iraq and Lebanon, and given a helping hand to Iraq and Lebanon in their efforts to establish and stabilize government. Turkey, through all these efforts, has demonstrated its unique role as a major regional power in the formation of a new regional order.

3. Turkey’s endeavor for peace in Middle East and its plan for becoming an energy hub are beneficial to stabilizing global oil and gas supply.

Turkey depends heavily on imported oil and gas, and the country is sensitive to oil and gas price fluctuation. Turkey’s attempt to ease the tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran, as well as its opposition to military attack against Iran, all contribute to its goal of stabilizing the energy supply. If Turkey successfully realizes its plan of energy transport and storage, there will be more land and sea outlets for oil and gas resources from the Central Asia, Iran and Iraq, and a more diversified and assured energy supply for Europe. In total, the oil and gas supply for the whole world will become much more balanced and stable.

On the other hand, there are visible obstacles that stand in the way of Turkey’s new diplomatic concepts and policy implementations. It is Turkey’s view that the end of Middle Eastern conflicts depends on a breakthrough in concept. Middle Eastern countries should learn from Europe and establish an alliance of mutual benefit, win-win results and peaceful coexistence. Big countries should seek coexistence in a multiple and integrated world and settle regional issues through exertions of soft rather than hard power. Such a fresh concept contradicts the geopolitical rivalry that is still popular in the region and has a great distance from the realities of the Middle East. The United States, sticking to a zero-sum mentality, is seeking supremacy in the region by eliminating those who maintain diverging views. Many countries still accept geopolitical concepts pursuing confrontation and division, and strive to seek their own interests in a dividing and antagonizing the regional structure. Such a situation will not be altered in a short span of time.

Despite its active participation in regional affairs for easing regional tensions, Turkey has does not have enough capacity to provide a real security guarantee for countries in the region; as a result, it is still the United States that has the final say on security issues. For Turkey, it can only play a subordinate role and cannot make a final settlement plan for regional conflicts, a hindrance that serves as the biggest defect in its regional diplomacy. Moreover, Turkey does not possess enough economic power to push economic integration forward in the region by itself, thus reducing the effectiveness of Turkey’s policies in improving the overall situation in the Middle East through economic integration.

Hu Shaocong is Associate Research Fellow and Director of the Department for Developing Countries Studies, China Institute of International Studies.