生態(tài)環(huán)境與農(nóng)業(yè)氣象

生態(tài)與農(nóng)業(yè)氣象研究進展

1. 農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災害研究

（1）北方農(nóng)業(yè)干旱監(jiān)測預警技術(shù)研究本課題為多學科、多部門、國家及地方科研、教學單位相結(jié)合的聯(lián)合攻關(guān)課題。按照項目組的統(tǒng)一部署和要求，經(jīng)過中國氣象科學研究院、河南省氣象科學研究所、山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學、國家氣候中心、國家氣象中心等單位科研人員5年共同努力，按計劃完成了相關(guān)研究任務。課題組對我國北方農(nóng)業(yè)干旱綜合指標體系及模式、農(nóng)業(yè)干旱監(jiān)測預警技術(shù)等多方面展開了全面系統(tǒng)的研究，建立了農(nóng)業(yè)干旱數(shù)據(jù)庫以及農(nóng)業(yè)干旱指標體系；運用動力與統(tǒng)計相結(jié)合的方法，研制了干旱預測模型；完成了星、空、地同步小麥干旱遙感監(jiān)測試驗，對試驗資料展開了系統(tǒng)研究，在此基礎上提出了航空遙感資料在農(nóng)業(yè)干旱監(jiān)測中的應用方案，并建立了遙感監(jiān)測農(nóng)業(yè)干旱系統(tǒng)，其中EOS/MODIS遙感監(jiān)測精度達85%，微波監(jiān)測精度達87.5%；確定了區(qū)域氣候模式不同物理過程參數(shù)化優(yōu)化方案組合，并進行了區(qū)域氣候模式的回報確定；分布式水文模式運行已獲成功，改進作物模式的干旱識別及預警模塊，較以往而言機理及模擬能力均有不同程度提高，區(qū)域氣候模式與農(nóng)業(yè)干旱模式結(jié)合形成農(nóng)業(yè)干旱預警系統(tǒng)，對432旬試報結(jié)果表明，農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的定性準確率達83.5%，定量準確率達80.7%。項目實施過程中，培養(yǎng)研究生11名，發(fā)表論文43篇，其中EI論文9篇，出版專著1部（約30萬字）。此外，依托先進的實驗基地，以華北地區(qū)冬小麥和夏玉米為試驗對象，以盆栽和田間試驗相結(jié)合的方法研究不同農(nóng)業(yè)干旱條件對作物生理生化指標的影響狀況，按期完成了相關(guān)的階段性田間試驗，獲取了大量第一手試驗資料。值得提出及的是，課題組克服了諸多困難，在國內(nèi)首次實施了飛機航空遙感農(nóng)業(yè)干旱監(jiān)測，并且將衛(wèi)星遙感和飛機航空遙感結(jié)合，完善了微波農(nóng)業(yè)干旱模型。

（2）北方農(nóng)業(yè)低溫冷害監(jiān)測預警技術(shù)研究

模擬的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱指數(shù)Simulated agricultural drought index

東北玉米生長模型結(jié)合冷害綜合指標對1961—2007年冷害的模擬結(jié)果Simulated cold damage from the northeast corn growth model integrated indicators of cold damage during 1961—2007

開展了一系列野外試驗、人工控制試驗和監(jiān)測、預測技術(shù)方法的研究。取得的主要成果有：（1）完成了田間試驗及人工控制試驗，取得了大量試驗數(shù)據(jù)，并結(jié)合歷史災情資料，建立了作物不同階段積溫距平和發(fā)育期距平的延遲型冷害指標系統(tǒng)及新疆棉花障礙型冷害指標；（2）利用指標監(jiān)測方法、生長量監(jiān)測方法和模擬模型監(jiān)測方法，建立了低溫冷害的綜合動態(tài)監(jiān)測體系，綜合監(jiān)測準確率達到85%以上；（3）建立了逐月滾動的低溫冷害統(tǒng)計學長期預測模型、作物生長模擬模型與區(qū)域氣候模式相結(jié)合的中長期預測模型、基于成熟期和初霜凍預測的短期預測方法，并建立了長中短期相結(jié)合的低溫冷害滾動預測體系，預測準確率總體上達到85%以上；研究期間共發(fā)布各類服務和咨詢材料54期，為相關(guān)地區(qū)低溫冷害的防御提供了技術(shù)支撐，取得了較好的服務效果；制定了行業(yè)標準1項；發(fā)表論文27篇，出版專著1部；培養(yǎng)碩士研究生6人，博士研究生1人。

（3）長江中下游高溫熱害監(jiān)測預警技術(shù)研究

隨著全球氣候持續(xù)變暖，水稻高溫熱害的發(fā)生頻率已經(jīng)顯著加大，已引起科學家的廣泛重視。長江中下游地區(qū)水稻生長季受到高溫熱害的嚴重影響，直接影響到該區(qū)乃至全國的糧食安全，基于衛(wèi)星遙感信息開展作物高溫熱害監(jiān)測和評估具有重要意義。本研究重點是光學遙感信息對水稻高溫熱害的監(jiān)測研究，取得的進展包括采用光學衛(wèi)星遙感信息對稻作區(qū)域氣溫的空間分布研究；基于混合像元分解信息的水稻田混合下墊面溫度提取信息；開展野外高光譜和熱紅外觀測試驗和建立模型，構(gòu)建衛(wèi)星-地面遙感耦合的水稻高溫熱害監(jiān)測模型等。最后探討了基于遙感信息開展水稻高溫熱害監(jiān)測的前景和下一步方向。

（4）華南寒害監(jiān)測預警技術(shù)研究

“十一五”國家科技支撐計劃重點項目“農(nóng)業(yè)重大氣象災害監(jiān)測預警與調(diào)控技術(shù)研究”之“華南寒害監(jiān)測預警技術(shù)研究”，于2010年11月6日通過中國氣象局科技與氣候變化司組織的專家驗收。課題研究建立了華南5種果蔬作物寒害的指標體系、監(jiān)測預警和長期預報技術(shù)體系、區(qū)域與3個省級監(jiān)測預警業(yè)務平臺；研制了基于氣候變化背景下的寒害氣候風險分析、區(qū)劃技術(shù)方法與模型。解決了5種果蔬作物寒害的指標創(chuàng)建、動態(tài)監(jiān)測、精細預警、長期預報、氣候風險量化等關(guān)鍵技術(shù)。首次建立了西紅柿、辣椒寒害等級指標體系；實現(xiàn)了寒害的實時動態(tài)監(jiān)測、未來1～3天的精細預警、長期預測，絕對誤差≤1.0 ℃的監(jiān)測準確率達87%以上、未來1～3天預警準確率達81%以上，大于等于1個月的等級預報準確率達87%以上；編制了5種果蔬作物寒害氣候風險區(qū)劃圖7幅、寒害等級風險地理分布圖28幅。

研究成果已在3個省級氣象業(yè)務中投入試運行并初步形成業(yè)務能力。編發(fā)省級防寒減災應用服務材料100期以上。應用服務累計面積達36.7萬 hm2以上、受益群眾達190萬人次以上；累計減少因災損失達32550萬元以上，示范區(qū)減損率達15%以上。取得國家計算機軟件著作權(quán)1項。制定技術(shù)標準3項，包括國家標準1項、行業(yè)標準2項；其中1項氣象行業(yè)標準已由中國氣象局發(fā)布實施。獲教材教學成果獎3項。建立省級寒害監(jiān)測預警業(yè)務應用與產(chǎn)品發(fā)布中試線4條；建立試驗基地、示范基地8個，總面積560 hm2。出版學術(shù)著作7部，發(fā)表學術(shù)論文32篇；培養(yǎng)研究生8人。

2. 氣候變化對我國農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的影響研究

完成了氣候變化對我國農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源、主要農(nóng)作物氣候生產(chǎn)力、種植制度的影響研究，以及氣候變化對主要作物布局和糧食產(chǎn)量影響的評估工作。研究分別以1961—1990年為氣候基準年代，并利用區(qū)域氣候模式輸出的2011—2050年氣候變化資料，統(tǒng)計分析了基準年代和未來每10年的主要農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源及其變化狀況，利用“農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)區(qū)劃法”計算了主要作物基準年代和未來每10年的農(nóng)作物氣候生產(chǎn)力及其變化狀況。制作全國區(qū)域分布圖和未來變化圖387幅。

2010年項目重點開展了氣候變化對我國農(nóng)業(yè)種植制度、作物布局和糧食產(chǎn)量（冬小麥、玉米、棉花）的影響研究。氣候變化對我國農(nóng)業(yè)種植制度的影響研究結(jié)果表明：無論是A2情景還是B2情景下，2011—2050年我國一年兩熟帶、一年三熟帶的種植北界較基準狀態(tài)下（1961—1990年）向北推移趨勢明顯。完成氣候變化對我國主要農(nóng)作物棉花、冬小麥、玉米的作物布局的評估工作；通過研究華北冬小麥產(chǎn)量與氣象要素的關(guān)系，建立了冬小麥氣象產(chǎn)量與多元氣象要素的回歸模型，并對未來A2、B2情景下的冬小麥氣象產(chǎn)量進行了預測；建立了各省玉米產(chǎn)量與多元氣象要素的統(tǒng)計模型，并對未來A2、B2情景下的玉米產(chǎn)量進行了預測；建立了棉花主產(chǎn)區(qū)產(chǎn)量與多元氣象要素的統(tǒng)計模型，并對未來A2、B2情景下的棉花產(chǎn)量進行了初步預測。

廣西自治區(qū)寒害監(jiān)測預警系統(tǒng)Chilling injury monitoring and warning system of Guangxi Autonomous Region

A2氣候變化情景下東北地區(qū)玉米產(chǎn)量相對變化率(%)（a-d分別為2010，2020，2030、2040年平均與1961—1990年的比較）Relative changes of corn yield in the Northeast under A2 climate change scenario (%)（a-d, relative changes of corn yield during 2010s, 2020s, 2030s and 2040s respectively, compared with 1961—1990）

3. 生態(tài)環(huán)境研究

如何客觀評估我國西部退耕還林/還草的氣候和農(nóng)業(yè)效應，是涉及當?shù)厣鐣?jīng)濟和生態(tài)環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重大問題。國家自然基金面上項目“陜甘寧退耕還林/還草的氣候農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)效應評估研究”進一步利用觀測數(shù)據(jù)分析了當?shù)刂脖蛔兓c區(qū)域氣候間的相互影響關(guān)系，并利用區(qū)域氣候與作物/牧草生長耦合模式（RegCM3-WOFOST/LINGRA）探討了單純由退耕還林/還草所產(chǎn)生的氣候和農(nóng)業(yè)效應。觀測研究表明，自2000年退耕還林/還草以來，陜甘寧地區(qū)的植被分布發(fā)生了顯著性的變化；相對于北部非退耕區(qū)，中南部典型退耕區(qū)的夏季溫度隨時間的增速趨緩而降水量隨時間的增速變快；夏季溫度的變化與落葉闊葉林、半沙漠、沙漠面積的變化顯著相關(guān)。陜甘寧地區(qū)退耕過程中（1999—2008年）耦合模式的數(shù)值模擬表明，單純的退耕還林/還草對研究區(qū)的最高溫度有一定抑制作用，對南部典型退耕區(qū)的抑制更為明顯，對降水量有微弱提升作用，由此導致冬小麥生育期延長，貯存器官干重等產(chǎn)量要素明顯增加。其中的降溫與耕地或草地轉(zhuǎn)換為林地相對應。退耕前后（1990—2015年）的長期數(shù)值模擬表明，單純的退耕還林/還草造成研究區(qū)平均氣溫和降水量的變化占氣候總變化的比例在3%～7%之間，對其他氣候和農(nóng)業(yè)要素的影響則更大，是探討區(qū)域范圍內(nèi)氣候變化不可忽略的因素，但目前退耕還林/還草的效應尚不能逆轉(zhuǎn)全球氣候變化的大背景。本研究在揭示觀測事實、開展區(qū)域氣候模式與作物/牧草生長模型耦合、量化單純由退耕還林/還草引起的氣候和農(nóng)業(yè)效應等方面具有一定創(chuàng)新。同時，本研究針對氣候與植被之間相互作用及其反饋機制的科學問題，在研究的方法論上進行了有益的嘗試，既促進了氣候和農(nóng)業(yè)學科交叉研究的發(fā)展，同時又具有一定社會效益。

4. 小麥旱澇災害風險預評估技術(shù)成果推廣應用

國家農(nóng)業(yè)科技成果轉(zhuǎn)化資金項目“小麥旱澇災害風險預評估技術(shù)成果推廣應用”，于2011年3月3日通過中國氣象局科技與氣候變化司組織的專家驗收。項目針對小麥旱澇災害風險逐旬預評估氣象業(yè)務應用的需求，研發(fā)了基于旬尺度的小麥旱澇災害致災等級指標、風險預評估模型、分省災害風險業(yè)務化預評估指標等；開發(fā)了省級小麥旱澇災害風險預評估業(yè)務服務系統(tǒng)；形成省級業(yè)務中試線2條、新產(chǎn)品2項，已制作發(fā)布省級小麥干旱、澇漬業(yè)務服務產(chǎn)品59期；已達到基于實時氣象資料的小麥旱澇風險預評估業(yè)務化應用的熟化程度。成果已在河南、安徽省建立評估產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)應用示范區(qū)2個，基于災害預評估產(chǎn)品及其對策措施建議、配套防控技術(shù)服務開展生產(chǎn)應用推廣，示范區(qū)累計應用推廣面積達1.6×105hm2，減少因災產(chǎn)量損失3.5×107kg、減損增效6373.1萬元；培訓技術(shù)人員308人次；累計向農(nóng)民群眾發(fā)放小麥旱澇災害防控技術(shù)材料4萬多份，帶動當?shù)剞r(nóng)民參與實施人數(shù)達45.5萬人。成果形成了省級農(nóng)業(yè)氣象業(yè)務新產(chǎn)品與服務能力，填補了省級農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災害風險預評估業(yè)務的國內(nèi)空白；實現(xiàn)了小麥旱澇災害風險預評估信息的實時業(yè)務量化，預評估準確率達82%以上。成果在省級農(nóng)業(yè)氣象業(yè)務發(fā)展、農(nóng)業(yè)防災減災決策與防控措施適時實施、農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)布局優(yōu)化、農(nóng)業(yè)災害保險等方面具有重要的應用價值和經(jīng)濟社會生態(tài)意義。

Ecological Environment and Agrometeorology

Progress in Ecological and Agricultural Meteorologcial Researches

1. Agricultural meteorological disasters

(1) Progress in research on drought monitoring and warning technology of northern agriculture

The project is a joint research project of multi-disciplinary and multi-sector with the combination of national and local’s research and teaching. In accordance with the unif ed arrangements and requirements of the project team, we completed the research task through the five-year research of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shandong Agricultural University, National Climate Center, National Meteorological Center and other organizations. We launched a comprehensive and systematic research in integrated indicators of agricultural drought in North China and monitoring and early warning technology of agricultural drought, and established agricultural drought database and agricultural drought index systems. We also developed drought forecasting models based on dynamic and statistical methods, and completed star, air and land test of remote sensing monitoring sync wheat drought, and started a systematic research on the experimental data. Thus, we put forward a proposal on the application of airborne remote sensing data to agricultural drought monitoring, and established agricultural drought monitoring system through remote sensing. In particular, the accuracy of EOS / MODIS remote sensing was more than 85%, and the accuracy of microwave monitoring was 87.5%. We determined the parameters optimum portfolio of different physical processes of regional climate model and conducted a return determination of regional climate model. We successfully ran a distributed a hydrological model, and improveddrought recognition and an early warning of crop module so that mechanism and simulation capabilities were correspondingly improved. We combined the regional climate model and an agricultural drought model to form agricultural drought early warning system, tested the 432 mid-test results with the accuracy rate of 83.5% and qualitative and quantitative accuracy rate of 80.7%. We trained 11 masters; published 43 papers including 9 EI papers and 1 monograph about 300 thousand words. In addition, based on an advanced experimental base in North China, we chose winter wheat and summer corn as test subjects, used pot and f eld experiment methods, researched the effects of agricultural drought conditions on physiological and biochemical index of crop, fulfilled the relevant field experiments, and obtained first-hand experimental data. Our group overcame many difficulties in firstly implementing the domestic agricultural drought monitoring through aviation remote sensing and satellite remote sensing and airborne remote sensing combination, improving the microwave agricultural drought model.

(2) Progress in research on low temperature and cold damage monitoring and warning technology of northern agriculture

We have made great achievements in a series of field experiments, manual control experiments, monitoring and forecasting techniques and methods. They mainly include: (1) completing the field experiment and manual control experiment, collecting a lot of experimental data, combining them with historical disaster data, establishing the cold damage indicators based on accumulated anomalies and developmental anomalies at different stages of crops, and establishing the cold damage indicators of cotton in Xinjiang Autonomous Region; (2) establishing comprehensive dynamic monitoring systems of cold damage through the use of monitoring methods for indicators, growth and simulation models. The integrated monitoring accuracy rate was above 85%; (3) establishing monthly rolling statistical models of cold damage for long-term forecasting, medium and long-term forecasting model with a combination of crop growth simulation models and regional climate models, short-term forecasting methods based on maturity and early frost forecasting, and establishing long, short and medium-term rolling forecast systems of cold damage with the accuracy rate of more than 85%, issuing 54 services and consulting material in order to provide technical support for cold damage defense during the study period, obtaining better service results, formulating 1 industrial standard, publishing 27 papers and 1 monograph, training 6 masters and 1 PhD.

(3) Progress in research on monitoring and early warning technology of hightemperature and heat injury in the Yangtze River basin

The occurrence of rice high-temperature and heat (HTD) has increased with global warming. Cultivation of rice is seriously affected by the HTD in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, which directly affects food security in this region and in the whole of China. It is important to monitor and assess crop HTD using satellite remote sensing information. This research helped to make progress in the development of monitoring rice HTD using optical remote sensing information. It included the use of optical remote sensing information to obtain the regional spatial distribution of high temperatures, mixed-surface temperature retrieval for rice fields based on mixed decomposition information, the development of field and thermal infrared testing and modeling, and the satellite/ground-based remote sensing coupled method for monitoring rice HTD. Finally, the prospects for monitoring crop HTD based on remote sensing information were summarized.

(4) Progress in research on monitoring and warning technology of chilling injury in South China

“Research on monitoring and early warning technology of chilling injury in South China (2006BAD04B03) ”—— one of the key projects in the National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan Period “Research on monitoring, early warning and regulation technologies of serious agrometeorological disasters” passed the acceptance check by the experts group which was organized by the Department of Science & Technology and Climate Change in China Meteorological Administration in November 6, 2010. Index systems for assessing chilling injury of five kinds of fruits or vegetables in South China, technical system of monitoring, early warning and long-term forecast and 3 provincial operational systems of monitoring and early warning wereestablished by the project. Techniques and models of climatic risk analysis and regionalization of chilling injury under the background of climate change were developed. Key technologies of index establishment, dynamic monitoring, detailed early warning, long-term forecast, quantif cation of climatic risk for chilling injury of f ve kinds of fruits or vegetables were realized. Rank index systems of chilling injury of tomatoes and peppers were established for the f rst time. Real-time dynamic monitoring of chilling injury, detailed early warning for the next 1-3 days and long-term forecast were realized. The monitoring accuracy with absolute error less than 1.0℃ was above 87%. The early warning accuracy for the next 1-3 days was above 81% and the rank forecast accuracy for more than one month was above 87%. Seven regionalization maps of climatic risk for chilling injury of five kinds of fruits or vegetables and twenty-eight distribution maps of risk ranks of chilling injury were compiled.

The findings of this project were put into test run in three provincial meteorological operational systems. More than one hundred service documents for chilling injury prevention and mitigation at provincial level were compiled. The application service coverage area for cropland added up to more than 366666.7 hm2, more than 1,900,000 people benef ted from the application service. The service increased the prof t by more than 325,500,000 yuan and reduced the loss rate by above 15%. One national computer software copyright was obtained and three technical standards were established, including one national standard and two industrial standards. One meteorological standard was issued and put into practice by China Meteorological Administration. Three teaching achievement awards were obtained by the project team. Four pilot lines of operational application and product release for monitoring and early warning of chilling injury at provincial level were established, and eight testing bases or demonstration bases with an area of 560 hm2were built. The project team published seven academic books and thirty-two academic papers, and cultivated eight graduates.

2. Impacts of climate change on agricultural production

The impacts of climate change on China's agricultural climate resources, climatic potential productivity, cropping system and agricultural production and distribution were detailedly evaluated. Based on the daily data of A2 and B2 climate scenarios (2011-2050) and baseline climate conditions (1961-1990) from the regional climate model PRECIS, the possible changes of agricultural thermal resource over the country every 10-year from 2011 to 2050 were analyzed. Based on the Agro-Ecological Zoning (AEZ) model developed by FAO and IIASA, the possible temporal-spatial changes of future climatic potential productivity of major crops every 10-year from 2011 to 2050 and from 1961 to 1990 were also estimated. Total 387 change distribution maps were compiled.

In the year of 2010, we mainly focused on the effects of climate change on cropping systems, crop distribution and food production (winter wheat, corn, and cotton). The possible trajectories of different cropping systems in China from 2011 to 2050 were also analyzed and assessed. Under the projected future A2 and B2 climate scenarios, compared with the baseline climate condition, the northern boundaries of double cropping area and triple cropping area would both move northward markedly from 2011 to 2050. The distribution trends of winter wheat, corn and cotton under climate change were assessed. The regression model on the relationship between winter wheat yield and multi-meteorological factors was established in North China, and winter wheat meteorological yields under future A2 and B2 scenarios were forecasted. The statistical models on the relationship between corn and multimeteorological factors were established in every province, and corn meteorological yields under future A2 and B2 scenarios were also forecasted in every province. The statistical models on the relationship between cotton and multi-meteorological factors were established in the main cotton producing areas, and cotton meteorological yields under future A2 and B2 scenarios were also predicted in every main cotton producing areas.

3. Study on ecological environment

How to assess the possibility of climatic and agricultural effects of returning farmland to the forest and grassland is a major issue involved in local sustainable development of socio-economic and ecological environment. We further analyzed the relationship between the local vegetation change and its regional climate by using some observations, and discussed the climatic and agricultural effects produced by Alone Returning Farmland to Forest and Grassland (AReFFG) through many numerical simulations by using the coupling model (RegCM3-WOFOST/ LINGRA) in the NSFC project (40675071). Analysis of observational data showed that distribution of major landuse types in ShanGanNing region had produced significant changes since 2000. Increment slowed down in July temperature while accelerated in precipitation with time in Typical region of Ecological Reforestation in Central and Southern study Area (TERCS region). Summer temperature was significantly associated with changes of deciduous broad-leaved forest, semi-desert and desert area. Numerical simulation by using RegCM3WOFOST LINGRA during 1999 to 2008 showed that AReFFG had inhibitory effect on the continuous increase of the maximum temperature in the study area and promoted an effect on the increase of precipitation in TERCS region. These situations led to a noticeable delay in winter wheat maturity and increase of dry weight of storage organ (WSO). Temperature change was mainly corresponding with the conversion of farmland or grassland into forest land. Numerical simulation results by using RegCM3WOFOSTLINGRA during 1990 to 2015 showed that the proportion of average temperature and precipitation changes caused by AReFFG were 3%-7% in the total climate changes, while other climate and agricultural elements accounted for the larger proportion. Climate and agricultural effect of AReFFG could not be neglected in probing regional climate change. However, it still could not reverse the large background of climate change. In our project, there were innovations in revealing the observed facts, coupling regional climate model and crop / pasture growth model and trying to separate the effects of AReFFG as well. We had a useful attempt in study methodology against scientific issues of the interaction and feedback mechanism between vegetation and climate. This research not only promoted the interdisciplinary study of climate and agricultural, but also had social benef ts.

4. Progress in research on promotion and application of technological achievements in predictive assessment of wheat drought and waterlogging risk

The project “Promotion and application of technological achievements in predictive assessment of wheat drought and waterlooging risk (2008GB24160440) ” supported by Commercialization Fund of Agricultural Research Findings, passed the acceptance check by the experts group which was organized by the Department of Science & Technology and Climate Change in China Meteorological Administration in March 3, 2011. Disastrous rank indicators of wheat drought and waterlooging disasters on time scale of ten days, predictive assessment model of risk and operational predictive assessment indicators of disaster risk at the provincial level were developed in the project. Operational service systems of predictive assessment of wheat drought and waterlooging risk at the provincial level were established. Two pilot lines of provincial operational systems and two new products were developed. Fifty-nine provincial service products of wheat drought and waterlogging were issued. Operational application of predictive assessment of wheat drought and waterlooging disasters based on real-time meteorological data was well developed and the technology was applied in Henan and Anhui provinces. Two provincial demonstration zones were established. Based on the predictive assessment products of disaster and the countermeasures, the prevention and control technology service were proposed and implemented for the production application and promotion. The application coverage area of demonstration zones added up to161333.3 hm2and the application service reduced 35,185,000 kilograms yield loss and the prof t increased by 63,731,000 yuan. Three hundred and eight technicians were trained and more than 40,000 technical documents for prevention and control of wheat drought and waterlooging disasters were provided to farmers. More than 455,000 local farmers participated in the prevention and control of wheat drought and waterlooging disasters under the guidance of the findings of this project. The project has developed new products of provincial agrometeorological system and filled the gap in predictive assessment of provincial agrometeorological disaster risk in China. Real-time operation and quantif cation of the predictive assessment of wheat drought and waterlooging risk was realized with an accuracy of above 82%. The findings of this project had great value of application and good economic, social and ecological benefits in the development of the provincial agrometeorological system, decision-making of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, timely implementation of prevention and control measures, optimization of agricultural structure and regional distribution, agricultural disaster insurance and etc.